Subj : Biggest Crash Ever! To : Gerhard Strangar From : Lee Lofaso Date : Mon Apr 20 2020 01:28 am Hello Gerhard, >LL>Let's look at Spanish Flu - >LL>Beginning of pandemic March 1918 >LL>Global cases 500 million >LL>Global deaths 50 million (675,000 in USA) >[...] >LL>Let's look at seasonal flu - >LL>Global cases 9% of population (1 billion, 5 million severe) >LL>Global deaths between 291,000 and 646,000 (death rate ~0.1%) >[...] >LL>End of pandemic seasonal > >Well, actually there is nor real end, it keeps coming back every year, which > means you could as well see it this way: The seasonal flu, yes. It never ends. But even the Spanish Flu did not actually "end" in 1919, as cases continued for 38 years after initial infection in 1918. >Spanish Flu infected 500 million people and killed 50 million within the > last 100 years. (actually 102, but let's keep the numbers simple) In 1918 that would be one-third of the global population being infected, with 10% of those infected dying. >Seasonal Flu infected 36 billion people (100 times 9% out of a linearized > average of 4 billions), that would be 36 million deaths at a constant death > rate of 0.1%. Spanish Flu (March 1918 to Summer 1919) infected one-third of entire global population (500 million out of 1.5 billion), and 10% of those infected (50 million) died. After summer of 1919 there were very few cases of Spanish Flu anywhere in the world, even though some cases did crop up until the late 1950s. Put those numbers in context with COVID-19. The global population today is about 7.8 billion people. One-third infected would be 2.6 billion people. 10% of those infected winding up dead would be 260 million people. Let's say a quarter of a billion people dying within a year due to COVID-19. >There's quite a high uncertainty in all of thouse numbers, though. Not that much. Both the Spanish Flu and the novel coronavirus are zoonotics. Both are highly contagious, and are true global pandemics. There was/is no effective treatment or vaccine for either. The only real questions that remain are how many people will die, and how quickly. >LL>One-third of the world population was infected by the Spanish Flu. >LL>Over 50 million people died as a result of having been infected. >LL>How many people do you think will become infected, and die, as a >LL>result of COVID-19? >Now that's wild guessing, but we might see up to 80% infected, which would > be 6 billion people. The numbers are known in regards to the Spanish Flu. Based on the same numbers (adjusted for increased population) and time frame allows for a well-qualified educated guess. Of course, it is possible that 80% of the world may get infected by the novel coronavirus, and that only God knows how many people will suffer and die as a result. In which case, Emily St. John Mandel did not write a work of fiction, but of a very real future that is becoming all too real. "Station Eleven", by Emily St. John Mandel. A flu epidemic devastates humanity, killing off almost everyone and bringing modern civilization to a grinding halt ... >And it looks like the number of people dying with it is going to be > somewhere between 3 million and 240 million people. Closer to 240 million, with the USA leading the way. >But there are going to be new variants in the future. There are reports in India suggesting that the virus may have begun to mutate. In which case, current research on producing a vaccine have just been trashed ... >Wen can "flatten the curve" one time and make it last longer, however, > people might then get SARS-Cov-19 and a future SARS-Cov-20 at the same > time. Ha! You just made the same mistake the US President's top advisor Kellyanne Conway made, thinking COVID-20 is the same as COVID-19. The number 19 is when the novel coronavirus was discovered, short for 2019. There is no COVID-20, as that would be another novel coronavirus in which a different vaccine would be needed. The world does not need to have *two* novel coronaviruses floating about at the same time. My gosh. We already have four coronaviruses in our systems as it is ... >What are we going to do then, shut down the economy "twice as much"? With everybody dead I do not believe anybody will be worried about the economy. --Lee -- We're Great In Bed --- MesNews/1.08.05.00-gb * Origin: nntp://rbb.fidonet.fi - Lake Ylo - Finland (2:221/360.0)