Subj : Biggest Crash Ever! To : Lee Lofaso From : Gerhard Strangar Date : Sun Apr 19 2020 08:07 am Am 19 Apr 20 02:26:07 schrob Lee Lofaso an Gerhard Strangar zum Thema <Biggest Crash Ever!> LL> Let's look at Spanish Flu - LL> Beginning of pandemic March 1918 LL> Global cases 500 million LL> Global deaths 50 million (675,000 in USA) [...] LL> Let's look at seasonal flu - LL> Global cases 9% of population (1 billion, 5 million severe) LL> Global deaths between 291,000 and 646,000 (death rate ~0.1%) [...] LL> End of pandemic seasonal Well, actually there is nor real end, it keeps coming back every year, which means you could as well see it this way: Spanish Flu infected 500 million people and killed 50 million within the last 100 years. (actually 102, but let's keep the numbers simple) Seasonal Flu infected 36 billion people (100 times 9% out of a linearized average of 4 billions), that would be 36 million deaths at a constant death rate of 0.1%. There's quite a high uncertainty in all of thouse numbers, though. LL> One-third of the world population was infected by the Spanish Flu. LL> Over 50 million people died as a result of having been infected. LL> How many people do you think will become infected, and die, as a LL> result of COVID-19? Now that's wild guessing, but we might see up to 80% infected, which would be 6 billion people. And it looks like the number of people dying with it is going to be somewhere between 3 million and 240 million people. But there are going to be new variants in the future. Wen can "flatten the curve" one time and make it last longer, however, people might then get SARS-Cov-19 and a future SARS-Cov-20 at the same time. What are we going to do then, shut down the economy "twice as much"? Tschoe mit Oe Gerhard --- * Origin: (2:240/2188.575)