Subj : Re: Pandemic
To   : Lee Lofaso
From : Dan Cross
Date : Thu Mar 19 2020 01:45 am

On 18 Mar 2020 at 02:19a, Lee Lofaso pondered and said...
 
 LL> >In Italy it went through the roof once they ran out of hospital space and
 LL> > could no longer effectively treat people.  1% is about right for the US.
 LL> 
 LL> You think so?  You really think so?

Yes, I do.  As long as we can keep the number of occupied
hospital beds below the threshold, we'll maintain that
rate.  The unfortunate reality, however, is that we're
unlikely to be able to do that, so our mortality rate will
also spike.

As I said earlier, the IFR (Infection-fatality rate) varies
across healthcare systems.  As jacked up as our system is,
our actual standard of care is very good (if accessible).
Until it gets overwhelmed, the IFR in the US will remain
around 1%.

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