Risk varies with age. Infants face different threats than teens, whose risks are wildly different from senior citizens. Among people age one through 44, injuries are by far the leading cause of death in the United States. But heart disease is the hands-down No. 1 killer for those over 65. Since average life expectancy is about 77 years in the United States, simple logic reveals the leading killer of Americans.
The numbers get murkier the closer you look. Statistics are typically given for a person born in the year the numbers are crunched, but by the time that person grows up, the outlook will have changed because of medical advances, diet shifts, changes to the environment, and so on.
The list below is not complete. Rather it includes life-ending scenarios that carry some of the highest odds for U.S. residents, along with the chances of checking out in more bizarre fashion.
Health-related statistics and categories with high-odds (like heart disease at 1-in-5) are among the most statistically significant, sort of. All odds fluctuate from year-to-year. Toss in a flu pandemic -- some 50 million died in 1918 -- and all bets are off. The World Health Organization recently warned that the next such bout could kill 7 million people "in a best case scenario." That's not in the odds below.
The more specific figures are based on 2001, the most recent year for which complete data are available. Other odds, indicated with an asterisk (*) are based on long-term data.
All figures below are for U.S. residents.
| Cause of Death | Lifetime Odds |
|
Heart Disease |
1-in-5 |
|
Cancer |
1-in-7 |
|
Stroke |
1-in-23 |
|
Accidental Injury |
1-in-36 |
|
Motor Vehicle Accident* |
1-in-100 |
|
Intentional Self-harm (suicide) |
1-in-121 |
|
Falling Down |
1-in-246 |
|
Assault by Firearm |
1-in-325 |
|
Fire or Smoke |
1-in-1,116 |
|
Natural Forces (heat, cold, storms, quakes, etc.) |
1-in-3,357 |
|
Electrocution* |
1-in-5,000 |
|
Drowning |
1-in-8,942 |
|
Air Travel Accident* |
1-in-20,000 |
|
Flood* (included also in Natural Forces above) |
1-in-30,000 |
|
Legal Execution |
1-in-58,618 |
|
Tornado* (included also in Natural Forces above) |
1-in-60,000 |
|
Lightning Strike (included also in Natural Forces above) |
1-in-83,930 |
|
Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or Sting* |
1-in-100,000 |
|
Earthquake (included also in Natural Forces above) |
1-in-131,890 |
|
Dog Attack |
1-in-147,717 |
|
Asteroid Impact* |
1-in-200,000** |
| Tsunami* | 1-in-500,000 |
|
Fireworks Discharge |
1-in-615,488 |
** Perhaps 1-in-500,000
SOURCES: National Center for Health Statistics, CDC; American Cancer Society; National Safety Council; International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies; World Health Organization; USGS; Clark Chapman, SwRI; David Morrison, NASA; Michael Paine, Planetary Society Australian Volunteers