# 21 Hamas and Geopolitics After a few weeks in this new evolution of the thousand-year-old conflict, I had some questions. Geopolitics is an old passion and I haven't understood the choice of Hamas to use this most horrific terrorism. Only History will give me answers, perhaps in a few decades. I will not talk about the roots of the conflicts, why western countries are also guilty of that situation, considering colonization, antisemitism in Europe for centuries, why Arabic countries or Ottoman Empire have their part, etc... I will only focus on the 50 last years and it's already very complex. My first reaction after the attack of the October, 7 was (before knowing what Hamas had made) that civilians Palestinians will be the main victims after a few days. The second reaction was about the date, quite exactly for the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, a shock for Israelis. The third reaction was to compare it to Ukraine-Russia War. I thought it was a mistake from Putin to go in this war, just before he started his attack. It's the same here. With all that in mind, I have let the conflict develop. I was right for the first reaction. I was a bit wrong for the second and for the third, War is not a question for diplomacy but for military. I don't believe in sacrifice and life has a sense for me, not life after death. With all that in mind, I have tried to analyze the reasons of this choice of Hamas, like French-Israeli journalist Charles Enderlin said recently. ## I'm not in Gaza or Israel To understand the state of mind of the belligerents, I have to imagine living in Gaza or Israel. For several years, Gaza strip has been a prison for 2 millions people with the politics of Likud party, Netanyahu and his far-right allies. In parallel, Palestinians in the West Bank are being illegally driven off their land by settlers who have no problem about killing. International organizations ans western countries have done nothing against that. In the same time, rockets regularly fall on Israeli territory and armed attacks injure or kill Israelis. I don't usually read or see all the Israeli media but I can imagine that some are comparing all the Palestinians to terrorists, and in Gaza some are comparing Israeli to traitors or worse. Propaganda on both extreme side. But Palestinians in gaza see no future and it's easy to fall in the arms of terrorism. There always bad gurus to invite you to sacrifice yourself, promising a better life in paradise. In Israel, some can fall in a kind of paranoia about Arab pop ulations. That's why we can see the word Apartheid in the mouth of Palestinians but also Israelis against the Likud party, to describe what is happening in Israel. Not easy to describe it in the more neutral way. And I have remembered of an old friend who was a rabbi : He told me (20 years ago) that some more and more right-wing Israelis saw the only way out of the conflict was to kill all the Palestinians. It's exactly what the Hamas says in the opposite way. With all that in mind, I can try to understand the situation. ## A domestic political issue Palestinians have a divided country between Gaza strip, West bank and all the diaspora in Jordan, Lebanon. Internal elections in West bank are a problem for the Fatah, the other party (an heritage of Yasser Arafat's PLO). Fatah is often seen as an un-influential and corrupt interlocutor. Elections have been postponed sine die in 2021. Situation in West-bank is different from Gaza because there is no blocus. But the territory is nibbled away and patiently divided by Israeli settlers. The population in West bank will probably see Hamas as a good alternative to recover his territory or at least not to let it go away. An hypothesis is to create a situation where elections in the Palestinian territories could be forced by the situation. Or to find people to overthrow Fatah by force. Don't forget that Likud strategy was to weaken the Fatah and to have a non-negotiating partner as only interlocutor, The Hamas. Remember that this movement, classified as Terrorist by western countries is considered as a resistance m ovement by others, as Turkey leaders declared recently, and as PLO was before becoming Fatah. And I don't forget that some Likud leaders were terrorists before 1948 or have helped to create terrorist groups during the Lebanon war... But if we consider the future destruction of Gaza, the fact is that in the future, Hamas won't be prisoner of Gaza strip anymore and will find, more easily, support in other territories. ## A communication issue In the last two years, Palestinian-Israeli conflict has disappeared from media headlines, after the beginning of Russia-Ukraine war. In 2020, The Abraham Accords have normalized relationship between UAE, Israel and Bahrain, followed by Sudan, Morocco, Oman, Jordan,... Saudi Arabia was the next country in the list. The rival of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, was a link with Hamas and Israel to help negotiations and to send funds to Gaza. An hypothesis is that Hamas has felt that without Saudi Arabia and all the Arabian countries, it would be difficult to «win». And between arabian government and the street, there is a strong difference of opinion on Palestinian. I don't think Hamas has thought that another Arabian Spring could happen with their attack, but they wanted perhaps to stop the Abraham Accords and their consequences. They need funds for their actions and to become invisible is their fear. The other hypothesis is to put the Palestine back in the Headlines and in the mind of chancelleries and diplomats. It ma y appear cynical to sacrifice thousands of people for that but in the mind of someone who has a deviant view of a religion, why not. Considering a recent interview in the New York Times (1), it seems to be the right hypothesis. Speaking of the symbol of Yom Kippur war anniversary, It's not comparable because it's not a military attack but a low-cost guerrilla with terrorism. Hamas had not the aim to conquest a territory. I remember propaganda images with some people of the street, without weapons, following Hamas members in the Israeli territory. You don't see that in a war but it's a sign that some people are so desperate that they can fight a strong army with only their fist and stones. Yom Kippur war show some mistakes of the Israeli intelligence and that's quite the same here. That's the only comparison that can be made. Now, with indiscriminate bombing of civilians in Gaza, Israel is losing the communication war. That was perhaps another goal of Hamas because in this conflict, we see more images from Israel than from Gaza or West bank. ## A death trap for Israel ? I can make a comparison with Al-Qaeda which was created with the help of CIA during the cold war and then turned against USA. Hamas is a kind of evil creature of the Likud which turned against them. But after the 9-11 attack, USA carried out an indiscriminate attack that had a lasting impact on their image in the world. They are now conscious of their mistake. Iraq had nothing to do with Al-Qaeda and Afghanistan was another trap. The concept of preventive war has shown its limits. I don't think that Hamas really think that Gaza can be the same trap as Afghanistan was for a conventional army. We have seen recently how it's difficult to conquest a city without a massive bombing. The trap is more for the image of Israel than for military. I said that Israel is losing the communication war. It's been month that there are protests in Israel against Netanyahu but nobody cares in the world or in the media. Now, we can hear the real words of Netanyahu and his allies. Their words were quite the same as Hamas (speaking of Israeli) when they compared Palestinians to animals. They don't want a ceasefire for humanitarian reasons. They just want to kill the Hamas and for them, it's the same than to kill all Palestinians in Gaza. It's exactly what my friend said 20 years ago about far-right Israeli. The problem is that Hamas committed the horror and it's difficult to forget for many diplomats and politicians. Even with Al Shiifa Hospital (2), Israel is unable to provide any real evidence of what they expect the hospital to be, a Hamas command centre, considering they have help from US Intelligence. If Hamas is losing the conventional war, that's not the case for non conventional war. For internal politics in Israel, the risk of the attack is to convert moderates Israelis to more extreme ideas. I can read some articles in left-newspapers that appeal to a ceasefire or a solution of two state but it's a minority. Hamas and Likud don't want this Utopian solution and it's a death spiral. The death trap could be there : Is Israel to live without some of its support in the world or without foreign trade ? 32% of its exports are for USA and after that Hong Kong, United Kingdom and China. And major importations comes from USA, China and Europe. So for the moment, there's no risk of isolation or boycott. Perhaps for tourism which grew from 25% in five years. The risk is to know what Israel can do with Gaza ? Hamas is not able to win a war against Tsahal and could lose the territory of Gaza. Israel knew where is the enemy with Gaza. But tomorrow? ## The risk of extension Israel can't occupy Gaza without consequences, this time....consequences for its US Support, for example. If Gaza is occupied tomorrow, Israel won't be seen as the offended but the offender for many people in the world, despite all the horrors that Hamas committed. The other consequence is for Jews in the world. We saw attacks on Christians, Muslims and now on Jews in western countries like USA, France, Germany… It's not only a question of religion but of International Rights. Western countries can't have different meanings for words if it's Israel, Russia, Arab Countries, African Countries or Western countries. With all the effects on Israel's image in the world, it's now the image of western countries which could be affected. News are now global and it's not only a war with conventional weapons. It's now a war of News, of Social medias, of Cyber attacks, of Drones etc… USA is one of the keys here. They were «smart» with Hezbollah and Iran for the moment to show that they had more to lose in that conflict than to win. There has been fights since November the 17th at the border between Lebanon and Israel. In a long time approach, it's not good to make attacks in a country without declaring war, and USA are not at war with Syria (where an attack of US air force took place) anymore, nor with Iran. Don't forget that Hezbollah and Iran are in the Shia branch of Islam, when Hamas and Qatar are one the Suni branch of Islam. They can perhaps find same interests but that was not the same think during Syria civil war. Iran people don't agree with their government on Hamas relationships. That makes it a complex situation which can't be resume as Bad vs Good. The Abraham accords could seem a fine solution in 2020 but it's perhaps now the cause of this new conflict, and because it was an opposition between Shia and Suni branches in a simplified model of Muslim world, as seen by the US . Saudi government is trying to save it, including Iran in a global deal. There is a great path to make and considering the last actions of Mohammed Bin Salman with Saudi Arabia, it's difficult to believe him. The fact to declare Jerusalem as a capital of Israel was also a mistake for many reasons, as many as in the history of the 3 monotheist religions and their branches. The question is now to make Hamas, and their equivalent on the other side, less important interlocutors for the next years. I don't think I will see that in my life. But the parallel could be the same in Ukraine with diplomatic discussions for a stalemate, that neither Ukraine nor Russia want. ## Conclusion It's difficult to say what was the hypothesis of Hamas before launching the attack. For me, it's more a question of communication to put that conflict back in the light. In war, victims count for little when it comes to achieving objectives. In the mind of Hamas, they become martyrs. In the mind of extremists generals of Tsahal, hostages are not far from that. In the mind of our western leaders, it's more a question of domestic politics not to see struggles between communities, than to solve that historical conflict also created by them. It's so simple to close our eyes and to let it go. But sometimes history repeats itself and reminds us with violence. => https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/08/world/middleeast/hamas-israel-gaza-war.html (1) : https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/08/world/middleeast/hamas-israel-gaza-war.html => https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/16/israel-gaza-shifa-hamas-evidence/ (2) : https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/16/israel-gaza-shifa-hamas-evidence/ => mailto:icemanfr@sdf.org Comments by mail or by a reply on your blog