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The Blast: Texas’ role under Trump 47 [1]

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Date: 2024-11 

Nov 6, 2024 | View in browser

By Renzo Downey and The Texas Tribune Politics Team

6 days until bill filing begins for the 89th Legislature

69 days until the 89th Legislature convenes

Texas as Trump’s “stopgap” There’s a lot to break down from last night’s election, in which Republicans batted back a decade of Democratic gains in Texas.



There’s former President Donald Trump winning the state by double digits. There’s U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz outpacing Trump but winning by 9 points. There’s the rightward shift of the Legislature thanks to continued gains in South Texas. There’s also the run Republicans made on contested judicial races.



As Texas emerges as an electoral success story for Republicans, it’s also set to play a major role in national politics.



There are officials like Gov. Greg Abbott, who has faithfully executed conservative policy, and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Trump’s Texas team leader. There are also his biggest cheerleaders in Attorney General Ken Paxton and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, and U.S. Rep. Ronny Jackson of Amarillo is trusted enough to continue looking after the former president’s health even after they both left the White House. And, according to Punchbowl news, a former Texas congressman, former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, could be tapped as the next CIA director.



With Trump’s platform focused heavily on immigration and his promise for mass deportations, Texas will play a central role in that enforcement, either as the stage or as a major player. Abbott acknowledged that during a news conference today.



“This task is a mountain to climb, because under the Biden administration, they decimated ICE,” Abbott said. “It’s going to take Trump time to build up the ICE enforcements like what last existed when he was last president, as well as the Border Patrol agents, and it’s nothing that’s going to happen overnight.”



“We have to be a stopgap effort as it takes him time to get that in place,” he added.

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A choice as a party As Democrats begin their postmortem on the 2024 election, Democrats will have to assess how much of their drubbing was thanks to inflation and the border, as many voters say, or whether Democrats’ positions within the culture war are scaring away potential supporters at the door — and whether that’s acceptable.



It’s a question of whether the party should abandon positions their fervent supporters see as inalienable rights for the sake of electoral success.



Texas Democratic Party Chair Gilberto Hinojosa, who has presided over the party’s most recent electoral rise and fall, stirred outcry from progressive Democrats this afternoon for his comments to The Texas Newsroom’s Lauren McGaughy about transgender rights.



“We can say, ‘Okay, we respect people’s right to say we don’t want my taxpayer money to be used for that, and at the same time support transgender rights,” he told McGaughy. “I’m not saying that we need to take that position right now. But when those votes happen, we need to recognize that there are going to be long-term political consequences when we do that.”



He wasn’t done.



“You have a choice as a party,” he continued. “You could, for example, you can support transgender rights up and down all the categories where the issue comes up, or you can understand that there’s certain things that we just go too far on, that a big bulk of our population does not support.”



Republicans flooded the zone with ads on transgender issues after their research suggested it was a winning issue for them. Hinojosa acknowledged it hurt Democrats, but many of the party’s most fervent supporters see transgender rights as inalienable rights.



One party member told The Blast that Hinojosa’s comment hasn’t been received well by members of the party’s executive committee, particularly among young and LGBTQ members.



“I can tell you now, as messaging chair of our state party, the chairman is dead wrong,” Kolby Duhon posted on social media. “If the lesson learned from this election by TDP leadership is to tack further right and throw trans kids under the bus in the process, I’ll happily tender my resignation at the [December] meeting.”



“Sorry Mr. Chairman, I cannot follow you down that road,” DNC Youth Caucus member André Treiber posted as well. “Y’all means ALL — especially our trans siblings and kids, who have been demonized and bullied not just by Republicans, but by conservative Democratic elected officials in our legislative delegations, too.”

What the election means for the speaker’s race Republican leadership in Texas have little time to celebrate after the election. Almost immediately, it’s time to start playing out the fights for the 2025 legislative session.



The Texas House Republican Caucus is set to meet at the Capitol on Saturday, Dec. 7, to endorse their speaker candidate for the upcoming session.



Republicans flipped two House seats, bringing the caucus to 88 strong, and both House Speaker Dade Phelan and challenger David Cook have good news they can draw from that.



In September, Cook named 46 of 48 supposed supporters among the likeliest Republican members for the 89th Legislature. All of them — plus the two unnamed supporters and the three supposed fence-sitters, as previously reported by The Blast — won their races, save for Steve Kinard. That puts Cook’s count somewhere around the high 40s.



However, some of the most vulnerable incumbents were Republicans likely to side with Phelan, like state Reps. John Lujan of San Antonio, Angie Chen Button of Richardson, Morgan Meyer of University Park and Lacey Hull of Houston. With those members returning, Phelan avoided losing supporters at the ballot box.



With 88 members, it will take 53 supporters for Phelan, Cook or someone else to earn the endorsement of the Texas House Republican Caucus. And now that the speaker candidates know their electorate, the campaigning can resume uninterrupted — except maybe by Thanksgiving.



But the state and nation’s rightward swing could also have implications for the speaker’s race.



Following Republicans’ close call in 2018, House leadership cautiously navigated the 2019 legislative session, careful not to spur backlash from voters. Now that voters have given Republicans a mandate in 2024, the Republican members now tasked with choosing their next leader may be less guarded about political retribution in 2026 and could embrace a more aggressive speaker.

Trump and Texas’ judicial vacancies Another thing to think about as the nation enters a second Trump presidency is that there currently are 47 judicial vacancies, including five in Texas.



One of those five has fully retired while the other four have senior status, in which they “retire from regular active service” but maintain a minimal caseload in semi-retirement. But once a judge is on senior status, the president can nominate a successor.



Below are the five vacancies within Texas on the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.



Senior District Judge Micaela Alvarez Southern District of Texas

McAllen courtroom

Appointed by George W. Bush in 2004

in 2004 Assumed senior status on June 8, 2023 Senior District Judge David Guaderrama Western District of Texas

El Paso courtroom

Appointed by Barack Obama in 2012

in 2012 Assumed senior status on May 27, 2023 Inactive Senior District Judge Lynn Hughes Southern District of Texas

Houston courtroom

Appointed by Ronald Reagan in 1985

in 1985 Assumed senior status on Feb. 12, 2023 Senior District Judge Barbara Lynn Northern District of Texas

Dallas courtroom

Appointed by Bill Clinton in 1999

in 1999 Assumed senior status on May 15, 2023 Retired District Judge Earl Leroy Yeakel III Western District of Texas

Austin courtroom

Appointed by Bush in 2003

Retired May 1, 2023 Trump issued 245 judicial appointments in his first term, capitalizing on around 100 vacancies left by Obama, thanks in part to Republicans taking control of the Senate.

HIDDEN IMAGE This week: The Senate Local Government Committee will meet at 10 a.m. tomorrow. Housing affordability Additional property tax relief and reform Invited testimony Public testimony

Next week: The Senate Subcommittee on Higher Education will meet at 9 a.m. on Monday.

The Senate Health and Human Services Committee will meet at 9 a.m. on Wednesday.

The Senate Natural Resources and Economic Development Committee will meet at 10 a.m. on Thursday. View the list of upcoming meeting notices here and here.

HIDDEN IMAGE Gov. Greg Abbott says he has 79 votes for universal education savings accounts, “counting, what I call only true, hardcore school choice proponents.”

HIDDEN IMAGE The Republican Governors Association will hold its annual conference in San Antonio Nov. 17-19.

HIDDEN IMAGE Do you or someone in your office have a new job you’d like mentioned? Email us. Hector Valle will succeed Shannon Edmonds as the director of governmental relations for the Texas District and County Attorneys Association. Edmonds will take over as TDCAA’s executive director in January. Valle was a prosecutor in Dallas for more than a decade before working at the General Land Office under George P. Bush.

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(Nov. 6) U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock

(Nov. 6) State Rep. Jolanda Jones, D-Houston

(Nov. 7) U.S. Rep. Morgan Luttrell, R-Willis

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