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Wider Europe [1]
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Date: 2024-10-21
Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am previewing two big meetings: Mark Rutte's first NATO ministerial and an EU summit that will be dominated by migration.
NOTE TO READERS: As we are celebrating the second anniversary of the Wider Europe newsletter this week, we have added a new feature: You can now listen to my briefings by clicking on the button below! We're actually using an AI version of my voice and would love to know what you think -- and, of course, what we can improve.
Briefing #1: Migration Issues To Dominate This Week's EU Summit
What You Need To Know: EU leaders gather in Brussels on October 17-18 for their regular fall summit -- a dress rehearsal ahead of the often more dramatic pre-Christmas summit in December when real decisions are taken on enlargement, funding, or sanctions before the holiday season kicks in.
This week's meeting is also the last one before the U.S. presidential election in November, as well as a presidential election and referendum on EU membership in Moldova on October 20 and then the Georgian parliamentary vote six days after that.
In Brussels, discussions about Ukraine will be central although few decisions are expected. The hot-button issue is expected to be the migration debate, which may have consequences for several countries hoping to one day join the bloc.
Deep Background: The draft summit conclusions, seen by RFE/RL, offer little that's new on Ukraine. Amid vague talk of some kind of "peace summit" to be held by the end of the year, potentially including participation on some level by Russia, the conclusions text simply states that "the European Council also stresses that no initiative about Ukraine can be taken without Ukraine."
The draft document indicates that no new sanctions on Russia appear to be forthcoming and instead leaders, at the end of the summit, will emphasize the need for "full and effective enforcement of sanctions and for further measures to counter their circumvention, including through third countries."
On economic aid, EU ambassadors last week agreed on another 35 billion euros ($38.2 million) in financial assistance for Kyiv for 2025, leveraged from frozen Russian central bank assets in the EU.
The EU has, however, not agreed on prolonging the sanctions on these central bank assets from the current six months rollover to the proposed 36 months extension. That extension would allow other G7 nations to provide funds as well, as they want guarantees that the Russian money, which is mainly in the EU, remains frozen for a longer period of time. Hungary is currently blocking the extension, and a decision on this issue from Brussels likely wouldn't come until after the U.S. presidential election.
On the upcoming Moldovan votes, the summit draft conclusions call out the Kremlin's attempts to influence the process, noting that "persistent attempts to use foreign information manipulation and interference to undermine democratic elections and the choice of the Moldovan people for a prosperous, stable, and peaceful European future."
While not openly taking sides, it is clear Brussels is hoping for Moldovans to vote for the EU in both the referendum and the presidential vote. Just last week, the EU slapped asset freezes and visa bans on five people, including Evghenia Gutul, the pro-Moscow governor of the Moldovan autonomous Gagauzia region. It also sanctioned Evrazia, a Russian-based NGO founded to promote Russian interests in Moldova.
In addition, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen traveled to Chisinau, the Moldovan capital, and presented a financial package for the country worth 1.8 billion euros for the next three years.
Drilling Down
For Georgia, the mood is decidedly more somber. The text notes "serious concern regarding the course of action in Georgia, which runs contrary to the values and principles upon which the European Union is founded" and adds that recent developments in Georgia jeopardize the country's EU path and "de facto halts the accession process."
The recent adoption of the so-called foreign agent law and anti-LGBT law have prompted the EU to cancel high-level political visits to Tbilisi and withhold some EU money going to the South Caucasus country. Brussels hasn't ruled out that more measures could be adopted in the future if Georgia further backslides on democracy.
Perhaps the most intense discussion at this week's two-day summit is likely to center around migration. The most controversial line in the draft conclusions is about the "new ways to prevent and counter irregular migration...in line with international law." This is something of a continuation of a letter written by 15 EU member states to the European Commission back in June, which mainly focuses on the need for various migration partnerships with non-EU countries. That could mean paying countries like Tunisia and Turkey to prevent migrants from reaching the bloc in the first place or looking into schemes, such as one under way between Italy and Albania, where Rome will build reception camps in Albania to house up to 40,000 migrants a year picked up at sea.
written by 15 EU member states to the European Commission back in June, which mainly focuses on the need for various migration partnerships with non-EU countries. That could mean paying countries like Tunisia and Turkey to prevent migrants from reaching the bloc in the first place or looking into schemes, such as one under way between Italy and Albania, where Rome will build reception camps in Albania to house up to 40,000 migrants a year picked up at sea. The idea of creating these types of "external hot spots" outside the EU in which people get their asylum claims tested before they may enter the EU is gaining ground. There is also the broader issue of returning people that have no legal right to stay in the bloc.
Hardened attitudes on migration come weeks after Germany decided to impose checks on all its borders in the wake of an attack where a failed asylum seeker killed three people in the west of the country during the summer.
It also comes as anti-immigration parties have finished top in Austria's parliamentary elections on September 29 and done well in recent polls in the Czech Republic and Germany. It's also worth noting that the recently formed French government is dependent on Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally for survival and that similar political forces are heading or influencing governments in other key EU member states such as Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Essentially, there is just a diminishing number of countries, most notably Spain, that are reluctant to adopt a more restrictive EU migration policy.
While the EU summit won't go into any detail about other countries that could play a similar role in hosting migrants as that of Albania, it's possible other EU candidate countries, for example in the Western Balkans, could be asked.
The new European Commission, which should be up and running by the end of the year, will be tasked with looking into such solutions to the migrants issue in the future. In a letter from Ursula von der Leyen to the commissioner designate for home affairs, the Austrian conservative Magnus Brunner, the European Commission president, writes that "you will steer innovative operational solutions to counter irregular migration."
Briefing #2: Mark Rutte's First Big NATO Meeting
What You Need To Know: NATO's defense ministers (and possibly a few leaders) will meet on October 17-18 in what will be new Secretary-General Mark Rutte's first proper meeting as the head of the organization. It's also the first time the defense ministers of the military alliance's four "Indo-Pacific partners" -- Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea -- join for a session with their 32 NATO counterparts.
It does signal the push, largely from the United States, to focus more on the growing influence and threats posed by China. While Beijing isn't officially branded as an "adversary" by NATO, the military alliance is open about how Beijing is challenging Euro-Atlantic interests, security, and values -- hence the apparent need to step up operations, including joint arms production and training, with the four states.
In the same spirit, NATO allies will want the Indo-Pacific quartet to intensify their support for Ukraine. This is especially true of South Korea, which is a big producer of ammunition needed on the battlefield. Korean arms manufacturers are providing some of this ammunition to NATO allies, who then often pass it on to Kyiv. Seoul is treading carefully here, though, wary about drawing too much attention from neighbouring North Korea and China.
Deep Background: In the second of three ministerial sessions, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will join to brief the participants about the war effort. He will also most likely plead for more military aid, notably air defense and long-range missiles.
NATO will want to communicate at the meeting that the alliance has come a long way in meeting its goal set at the Washington summit in July of providing Ukraine with 40 billion euros ($43.7 billion) of funds in 2025. Otherwise there likely won't be too much good news on Ukraine.
The situation on the front lines "remains discouraging," as one NATO source told me, and Kyiv isn't experiencing much luck politically either. During his trip to the United States in September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy didn't get what he wanted in terms of allowing Kyiv to use Western weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia -- or even hints that an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO was forthcoming.
And last week, Zelenskiy's meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden and other leaders at the German military base of Ramstein was canceled due to Hurricane Milton hitting Florida.
The Ramstein meeting, which brings together over 50 nations that support Kyiv militarily, was widely seen by diplomats as the last chance for Ukraine to push for these two key goals before the U.S. election on November 5. The chance of getting a NATO invitation during Biden's remaining time in office is likely very slim, whereas there's probably a greater chance of getting a green light to strike Russian military targets outside Ukraine.
It is possible, however, that a Ramstein meeting could still take place at a ministerial level, possibly even on the sidelines of this week's NATO defense meeting.
Drilling Down
The third and final session of the ministerial is about NATO's own deterrence and defense. And it could prove to be the trickiest one. There will be talk about how to respond to the increased number of Russian airspace violations in NATO frontline states such as the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania.
Don't expect any joint agreement on this, and countries will be free to defend their airspace as they see fit -- but there will be a sense of caution in not escalating the situation with Moscow too much.
Another contentious issue is the pre-positioning of defense equipment in NATO member states close to Russia. This places heavier weapons and ammunition closer to NATO borders to increase readiness in case of an attack. NATO has pushed pre-positioning for over a decade, even though there is a distinct lack of equipment.
In fact, it is only the United States that has enough heavy weapons and ammunition to place in depots in various frontline states. West European allies have been criticized for underspending on defense in recent decades, claiming they have sent all their spare equipment to Ukraine or have just been reluctant to share more of what they have.
The plan now is to determine how much burden frontline states should bear in preparing for an eventual attack, as well as how much other NATO nations, which comprise the eight multinational battlegroups stationed in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, should bring to the host nations' military depots.
And then you can expect politicking to happen at the sidelines in terms of who should become Rutte's righthand person. The deadline for applications for the deputy secretary-general position closes on the final day of the ministerial meeting (October 18), and, in November, the successful candidate should be revealed. The former defense minister of North Macedonia, Radmila Sekerinska, and the former foreign minister of Bulgaria, Mariya Gabriel, are the early favorites, but don't rule out that there are other candidates under consideration as well.
Looking Ahead
EU energy ministers are gathering in Luxembourg on October 15 and they will be joined by their Ukrainian counterpart, German Galushchenko, who will brief them about how his war-torn country is preparing for the winter ahead. The Russian military has continued to target Ukraine's energy infrastructure throughout the summer and fall.
On the same day and in the same city, there will at least be some joy for Albania as Tirana will officially open its first EU accession chapters. A so-called intergovernmental conference will be held to mark the occasion under the auspices of the ongoing Hungarian presidency of the Council of the European Union.
That's all for this week! Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on Twitter @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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