[HN Gopher] Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch...
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Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?
 
Author : Someone
Score  : 137 points
Date   : 2023-04-03 18:42 UTC (4 hours ago)
 
web link (fas.org)
w3m dump (fas.org)
 
| GartzenDeHaes wrote:
| To me, this kind of looks like a host country demonstration,
| joint exercise, or maybe a damaged trainer.
| 
| - EOD nuclear procedures are classified Secret Critical Nuclear
| Design Information. They will not allow someone to take pictures,
| nor allow civilians to watch.
| 
| - USAF EOD does use three person teams for nuclear operations,
| two workers and one supervisor. Normally there are two people on
| incident response teams.
| 
| - Some USAF tactical fighter wings do train to drop tactical
| nuclear weapons, even if they do not have such weapons themselves
| (for contingency/war plans).
| 
| - Some nuclear weapon trainers have some explosives, so it is
| possibly a real EOD response. However, even if the procedures in
| this case were not classified, I doubt EOD would allow any
| pictures of an actual operation.
 
| MikeDelta wrote:
| Regarding secrecy: a few years ago secret information got out
| because soldiers used flash-card apps to learn it, and those
| cards were released/available publicly.
| 
| https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2021/05/28/us-soldiers-expos...
 
  | morpheuskafka wrote:
  | You can find a lot of stuff on Quizlet with DoD related
  | keywords. Seems like there are these tests they have to take
  | for various MOS's that they are studying for.
  | 
  | I'm pretty sure most of it is unclassified, but some of it
  | might not be public. The flashcards for security guard/MP stuff
  | has some generic stuff like gate runner procedures, but they
  | also have base-specific things such as where Department of
  | Energy OST convoys carrying Special Nuclear Material or weapons
  | would park on base during a Safe Haven unscheduled stop. There
  | used to be one with an old sign/countersign I think.
  | 
  | The IT ones have information about where certain undersea
  | cables and satellite ground stations are. The most sensitive
  | stuff seems to be locations of infrastructure within a base.
  | One of them mentions something about Building NH-95 at the
  | Hampton Roads Naval base as being a critical site in the
  | TS/SCI-classified network. Some of them also have the names of
  | the officers responsible for certain programs that could be
  | compromise targets.
  | 
  | https://quizlet.com/463959814/scif-flash-cards/
  | 
  | https://quizlet.com/547051333/knowperform-doe-vansafe-haven-...
  | 
  | https://quizlet.com/773174649/spec-op-flash-cards/
  | 
  | https://quizlet.com/761500482/isec-osi-308-310-flash-cards/
  | 
  | https://quizlet.com/519052943/setup-and-operate-the-kg-175d-...
 
| wewtyflakes wrote:
| When the headline is asking the audience, the answer is usually
| no.
 
  | nomel wrote:
  | For reference, it's:
  | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines
 
    | ARandomerDude wrote:
    | We all know by now...
 
      | nomel wrote:
      | Perhaps a fresh concept for you then: https://xkcd.com/1053
 
  | 23B1 wrote:
  | Article: "It must be emphasized up front that there is no
  | official confirmation that the image was taken at Volkel Air
  | Base, that the bent B61 shape is a real weapon (versus a
  | trainer), or that the damage was the result of an accident
  | (versus a training simulation)."
  | 
  | Headline writer/editor: "Hold my beer"
 
    | vintermann wrote:
    | "There is no official confirmation" isn't especially
    | noteworthy, when they simultaneously boast that they would
    | never, ever officialy confirm something like that if it was
    | true.
    | 
    | My bet is most of the editors publishing this story called to
    | ask if it was OK to publish first, and got a yes. They call
    | it a "limited hangout". Better that a reputable source
    | publicizes it with a ton of caveats about how unverified it
    | is, than that someone more hostile finds it out first.
 
      | tremblane wrote:
      | Trying to remember the specifics of the training we got
      | when I was in the US Air Force on the rules concerning
      | nukes. This is the gist of it:
      | 
      | Above all: Don't lie.
      | 
      | The default is "neither confirm nor deny". For example:
      | somebody asks if there were nukes on the plane that just
      | crashed? Can't say. Even if you know there weren't, you can
      | neither confirm nor deny.
      | 
      | You MAY deny if it would benefit safety. For example:
      | someone started a rumor there was a nuke on a plane that
      | crashed nearby and panic/riots are starting. An official
      | statement saying there was no nuclear material involved
      | could help settle things down.
      | 
      | You MUST confirm if there is a safety concern. For example:
      | There really was a nuke on the plane that just crashed
      | nearby and people need to evacuate ASAP. Get that
      | confirmation out now and get people away from the
      | situation.
      | 
      | In other words, when it comes to nuclear things with the US
      | military, "no official confirmation" means exactly nothing,
      | other than there is/was no public safety concern.
      | 
      | edit: I never looked at the regulations, this was just told
      | to us in tech school. But I just looked it up and there
      | actually is a reg for that:https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/
      | 54/Documents/DD/issuances/do...
 
        | mistermann wrote:
        | > Above all: Don't lie.
        | 
        | > The default is "neither confirm nor deny". For example:
        | somebody asks if there were nukes on the plane that just
        | crashed? Can't say. Even if you know there weren't, you
        | can neither confirm nor deny.
        | 
        | "Can't say" is a lie (as _it is physically possible_ to
        | say).  "I _have been ordered to_ say  'Can't say', even
        | though I actually do know the truth" would be not lying.
        | 
        | Not that it matters because no one _really_ cares about
        | fine-grained, _actual_ truth, I 'm just pointing out a
        | neat part of our righteous, _democratic_ culture.
        | 
        | > In other words, when it comes to nuclear things with
        | the US military, "no official confirmation" means exactly
        | nothing, other than there is/was no public safety
        | concern.
        | 
        | If one was to pay attention to official US announcements
        | over the years, one might realize that "no official
        | confirmation" in the above _could be replaced with
        | anything_ and remain correct, due to their long, diverse
        | track record of lying and getting caught.
        | 
        | Of course, everyone lies, it is a fundamental part of our
        | culture and "getting things done", I'd just rather we
        | stop representing ourselves as being something other than
        | what we really are.
 
    | bragr wrote:
    | >there is no official confirmation that the image was taken
    | at Volkel Air Base, that the bent B61 shape is a real weapon
    | (versus a trainer), or that the damage was the result of an
    | accident (versus a training simulation)
    | 
    | Even if it was at Volkel, and it is a real weapon, there's no
    | confirmation that it contains a physics package, so there may
    | be no "nuclear" risk, even if the weapon is badly damaged.
    | 
    | I suspect if the core was inside, and there was a chance of
    | it being damaged, they'd all be wearing a lot more safety
    | gear, as plutonium is quite toxic aside from the radioactive
    | risk.
 
      | thrill wrote:
      | Exactly.
 
| guenthert wrote:
| "Most people would describe a nuclear bomb getting bent as an
| accident, but U.S. Air Force terminology would likely categorize
| it as a Bent Spear incident, which is defined as "evident damage
| to a nuclear weapon or nuclear component that requires major
| rework, replacement, or examination or re-certification by the
| Department of Energy." The U.S. Air Force reserves "accident" for
| events that involve the destruction or loss of a weapon."
| 
| That'll buff right out.
 
| [deleted]
 
| karaterobot wrote:
| 50 comments in, there should be a top level comment pointing out
| that the answer is "no", as stated as an update in the first
| paragraph of the article. So, this is that.
| 
| > Did the U.S. Air Force suffer a nuclear weapons accident at an
| airbase in Europe a few years back? [Update: After USAFE and LANL
| initially declined to comment on the picture, a Pentagon
| spokesperson later clarified that the image is not of an actual
| nuclear weapons accident but of a training exercise, as cautioned
| in the second paragraph below. The spokesperson declined to
| comment on the main conclusion of this article, however, that the
| image appears to be from inside an aircraft shelter at Volkel Air
| Base.]
| 
| So: no.
| 
| Gimlet-eyed viewers may have concluded the same thing
| independently, by noticing that there a couple people standing
| around in the background looking bored, one of them holding what
| may as well be a clipboard.
 
  | Someone wrote:
  | > 50 comments in, there should be a top level comment pointing
  | out that the answer is "no", as stated as an update in the
  | first paragraph of the article.
  | 
  | Not necessarily. Those 50 comments may have come before the
  | update.
  | 
  | I think many if not most of them did.
 
  | mistermann wrote:
  | If saying something was true was all that was required for it
  | to be true, we likely wouldn't need nuclear weapons in the
  | first place.
  | 
  | This isn't to say that there was an incident of course, I am
  | just pointing out a rather absurd aspect of our culture.
 
  | hnburnsy wrote:
  | I don't know anything about FAS, but this article does not
  | reflect well on them, especially if they are representing
  | scientists.
 
    | 0xDEF wrote:
    | They are an organization founded by scientists. However today
    | their primary goal is anti-nuke activism. For example the
    | author of this piece is a former Danish Greenpeace activist
    | who according to his LinkedIn profile doesn't have any
    | scientific background other than protesting against Nordic
    | nuclear energy projects before moving to the US.
 
    | themodelplumber wrote:
    | From what I understand, they have had kind of a history of
    | hiring PR / communications experts and later realizing those
    | people don't really have the same goals or perspectives as
    | the scientists.
    | 
    | Seeing that this is a blog post (and one of many) and not a
    | FAS report or article, it's also different in that particular
    | way: Maybe it's written through more of an exploratory /
    | human interest angle and meant less as a scientific
    | publication.
    | 
    | This seems especially relevant given the updates posted on
    | the blog post; somebody is trying to keep on top of it, at
    | least...
 
  | verisimi wrote:
  | Right. How could a figment of the imagination be involved in an
  | accident?
 
| ricardobeat wrote:
| Exposing an accident like this via a picture added to a student
| briefing would be a lot more stupid than the flashcards fiasco.
| This is just wild speculation based on a single out of context
| picture.
 
| andyjohnson0 wrote:
| US military is now claiming that the photo shows a dummy weapon:
| 
| https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/us-nuclear-bom...
 
| bragadiru_mafia wrote:
| Ok and then the water supply and all the farms got contaminated
| and that's why they are closing all the farms
| 
| If you're in NL can you buy a Geiger meter and take a really long
| cycle ride and validate the hypothesis?
 
  | detrites wrote:
  | There's an app for that:
  | 
  | https://map.safecast.org/?y=52.34&x=4.91&z=7&l=0&m=0
 
    | bragadiru_mafia wrote:
    | Magnificent. From the bottom of my Heart. Thank you.
 
| bostonsre wrote:
| Would they be wearing protective gear if it was an actual
| accident? Also, the dude with the clip board doesn't look very
| concerned...
 
  | jacobsenscott wrote:
  | The guy with the beard (most likely the one who knows the most
  | about it) looks like he's ready to take a big step back though.
 
  | ceejayoz wrote:
  | > Would they be wearing protective gear if it was an actual
  | accident?
  | 
  | Nuclear warhead cores were routinely handled by hand. Not sure
  | if they still are, but when intact and non-critical, they
  | present very little radiation risk.
  | https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/after-wwii-scienti...
 
    | rootusrootus wrote:
    | Plutonium is quite toxic, however, and I think by now it
    | would be normal to have some protection when working with it.
    | And given the consequences for playing fast & loose in the
    | past, it's likely we aren't as flippant now. Also, you're
    | talking about the scientists, not the EOD grunts.
 
      | bell-cot wrote:
      | > Plutonium is quite toxic...
      | 
      | Myth. For example -
      | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutonium#Toxicity
 
        | zokier wrote:
        | > so that the toxicity of plutonium is roughly equivalent
        | with that of nerve gas
        | 
        | Is not exactly saying that it is not toxic. I tried
        | looking for actually credible sources for toxicity, one
        | Los Alamos publication claims:
        | 
        | > For example, the LD50(30) for dogs after intravenous
        | injection of plutonium is about 0.32 milligram per
        | kilogram of tissue.
        | 
        | Less than nerve gases, but still I'd classify as "quite
        | toxic"
 
  | avar wrote:
  | Hypothetically, if the bomb is damaged in such a way that it
  | may accidentally detonate, it's going to be pointless to try to
  | fix the issue while wearing protective gear.
 
    | rep_lodsb wrote:
    | This couldn't happen. It takes precision timing of the
    | conventional explosives inside a nuke to trigger detonation.
 
    | stametseater wrote:
    | The protective gear would presumably be to protect the EOD
    | guys in scenarios in which the bomb doesn't blow up. Just
    | spitballing here but.. maybe SCBA gear in case it starts to
    | leak tritium gas?
 
  | dboreham wrote:
  | The damage is at the non-nuclear end of the bomb.
 
| tspace2k wrote:
| [dead]
 
| Overtonwindow wrote:
| _It must be emphasized up front that there is no official
| confirmation that the image was taken at Volkel Air Base, that
| the bent B61 shape is a real weapon (versus a trainer), or that
| the damage was the result of an accident (versus a training
| simulation)._
 
  | yellow_postit wrote:
  | Exactly. Quite the chain of speculation built from a single
  | image.
 
    | azubinski wrote:
    | It's just that Finland joined NATO...
 
    | Overtonwindow wrote:
    | To be fair, it is the news media... Reporters take nuggets of
    | information, plus buckets of speculation, and spin it into
    | something that you will click on.
 
      | andyjohnson0 wrote:
      | > To be fair, it is the news media...
      | 
      | The article in on the website of the Federation of American
      | Scientists. Quote from their About page:
      | 
      |  _" The Federation of American Scientists is a nonprofit
      | policy research and advocacy organization founded in 1945
      | to meet national security challenges with evidence-based,
      | scientifically-driven, and nonpartisan policy, analysis,
      | and research."_
      | 
      | Hardly the "news media" or clickbait.
 
    | tialaramex wrote:
    | _Officially_ there 's no explanation for the image at all,
    | but "It's some teenagers at my local high school, plus a lot
    | of Photoshop" doesn't feel at all likely, does it?
    | 
    | The idea that it's Volkel seems reasonably solid unless
    | somebody has photographs _known to be from somewhere else_
    | which look like that. We know Volkel 's B61s are stored in a
    | place exactly like that, we know most US airbases don't look
    | exactly like that even in Europe.
    | 
    | So the biggest open question is: Did they prang a real bomb
    | or is that a training unit. I mean, one reason you put so
    | much work into training is that people do prang real bombs
    | and it's important they don't freak out and instead follow
    | procedure. So both are actually likely.
 
      | jt2190 wrote:
      | > Officially there's no explanation for the image at all,
      | but "It's some teenagers at my local high school, plus a
      | lot of Photoshop" doesn't feel at all likely, does it?
      | 
      | Consider that a state-level adversary would definitely want
      | to plant "fake news" like this (done indirectly through
      | third-parties, of course), for reasons including:
      | 
      | * bogging down our day-to-day operations as everyone
      | "investigates" and "double-checks"
      | 
      | * observing who in our organization reacts and how,
      | revealing personnel, command structures, and capabilities.
      | 
      | * undermine confidence in current leadership
      | 
      | To be clear I'm not saying this particular instance is fake
      | or real, just that this is a technique that can be used to
      | gather information or tie-up on an adversary.
 
| slim wrote:
| At first a visor cover can be seen showing an orange-yellow
| mushroom cloud illustrating a nuclear explosion. However, when
| the video cuts and the commander turns to face the camera, the
| nuclear mushroom cloud cover is gone, presumably to avoid sending
| the wrong message to Russia
| 
| I guess now is the right time to send the wrong message to Russia
| /s
 
| The28thDuck wrote:
| I remember hearing about bad OPSEC at Volkel. Something about how
| there was sensitive national security secrets indirectly being
| leaked bc soldiers didn't set their Quizlet flashcards to private
| when studying for their exams.
 
  | DigiDigiorno wrote:
  | Wow, I missed that one. I just looked it up.
  | 
  | https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2021/05/28/us-soldiers-expos...
  | 
  | I know these human mistakes are inevitable in a large
  | organization, but it's still sobering seeing that a soldier
  | would post nuclear vault release code locations and more
  | online. I guess it's easy to be careless in the daily grind
  | whether it's PII or nuclear secrets...
 
  | WeylandYutani wrote:
  | (When Russia opened its archives in the 90s we learned were all
  | the nukes in Europe were stored. It wasn't a secret to the
  | KGB).
  | 
  | Officially to this day this is all a Dutch state secret (can
  | neither confirm nor deny bla bla bla). But there was an
  | interview with ex prime minister Lubbers and he talked about
  | the nukes. The poor man's mental faculties were already
  | slipping.
  | 
  | If anyone is wondering according to NATO plans as I understand
  | it the Dutch Airforce is supposed to be under US command
  | dropping the bombs. A bit of a democratic cluster fuck that
  | bypasses parliament to initiate nuclear Armageddon.
 
    | gambiting wrote:
    | That last part is literally in the article. If US President,
    | UK Prime Minister and NATO Nuclear planning group all approve
    | the strike, then the weapon is loaded on a Dutch F-16 and
    | dropped by a Dutch pilot.
 
    | Someone wrote:
    | > But there was an interview with ex prime minister Lubbers
    | and he talked about the nukes.
    | 
    | He wasn't the only one. FTA:
    | 
    |  _"two former Dutch prime ministers and a defense minister in
    | 2013 even acknowledged the presence of the weapons."_
 
  | warner25 wrote:
  | If someone puts classified information into Quizlet, that
  | constitutes spillage whether they set it to private or not.
  | 
  | Sometimes this kind of thing needs to be explained even to very
  | senior people, not just lowly troops. I knew of a four-star
  | general asking a few years ago why we didn't use Signal for
  | stuff instead of Teams (O365 tenant hosted in Microsoft's
  | Government Community Cloud), because he "heard that it's so
  | secure that even the NSA can't break it." The answer is that
  | there's a difference between a system being "secure" and being
  | accredited for classified information or even unclassified
  | information that the government owns.
  | 
  | Edited to add: Another very senior DoD person actually got in
  | trouble for using Signal for official business a couple years
  | ago because, among other reasons, there's no way for the
  | government comply with FOIA when someone is using a personal
  | account on a commercial application like that.
 
    | vuln wrote:
    | > Edited to add: Another very senior DoD person actually got
    | in trouble for using Signal for official business a couple
    | years ago because, among other reasons, there's no way for
    | the government comply with FOIA when someone is using a
    | personal account on a commercial application like that.
    | 
    | Do you have any additional information on the punishment? The
    | precedence has been set that "no reasonable prosecutor "
    | would prosecute someone over using personal servers/apps/out
    | band communication to subvert FOIA and National Security.
    | 
    | > Although we did not find clear evidence that Secretary
    | Clinton or her colleagues intended to violate laws governing
    | the handling of classified information, there is evidence
    | that they were extremely careless in their handling of very
    | sensitive, highly classified information.
    | 
    | > Although there is evidence of potential violations of the
    | statutes regarding the handling of classified information,
    | our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring
    | such a case.
    | 
    | https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/statement-by-fbi-
    | dir...
 
      | iamerroragent wrote:
      | I'd like some toasted hombres with a nice big fat slab of
      | butter please.
 
      | ambicapter wrote:
      | Your quoted text doesn't reflect the sentence you use to
      | introduce it
      | 
      | > there is evidence that they were extremely careless in
      | their handling of very sensitive, highly classified
      | information.
      | 
      | is not the same thing as
      | 
      | > using personal servers/apps/out band communication to
      | subvert FOIA
 
      | boomboomsubban wrote:
      | https://www.nextgov.com/cxo-briefing/2021/06/defense-
      | digital...
      | 
      | He stepped down, and my quick search doesn't show him
      | actually facing punishment. And his case was different, as
      | some members of staff did believe he was encouraging use of
      | Signal to prevent FOIA strikes.
 
        | warner25 wrote:
        | Yeah, I have no inside knowledge, but it certainly looks
        | like nothing in the way of criminal punishment. From
        | various articles, it sounds like he only intended to do a
        | two-year term, and he actually stayed in the position a
        | few months after that while the investigation was taking
        | place. He stepped down before the report was finally
        | published: https://media.defense.gov/2021/Jun/21/20027452
        | 47/-1/-1/1/DOD...
        | 
        | Per his LinkedIn page, he went straight to what is
        | probably a cushy job at Vanderbilt University.
        | Interesting career path, by the way. He was "Director of
        | IT at OpenTable" for seven years, and then did four years
        | as a "Police Officer" in the Chicago PD before going back
        | to IT stuff there.
 
      | Spooky23 wrote:
      | Prosecutorial discretion does not have precedent.
 
  | itronitron wrote:
  | uhm, setting the quizlet flashcards to private would have still
  | resulted in a leak of sensitive data...
 
    | whalesalad wrote:
    | You're not wrong - but "If a tree falls in a forest and no
    | one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?" comes to
    | mind.
 
      | havblue wrote:
      | The espionage act treats negligence with strict liability.
      | So if you "could have" caused a leak, it's still treated
      | like a leak.
 
        | whalesalad wrote:
        | Is your username an homage to the stealth fighter?
 
        | dragonwriter wrote:
        | > The espionage act treats negligence with strict
        | liability
        | 
        | "Negligence" and "strict liability" are different
        | standards, you can't treat one with the other.
        | 
        | > So if you "could have" caused a leak, it's still
        | treated like a leak.
        | 
        | That's very much _not_ how the Espionage Act works, even
        | just on the statute and beforr considering Supreme Court
        | precedent limiting its application.
 
        | havblue wrote:
        | My original explanation wasn't that good and yes, I
        | conflated the espionage act with how this situation would
        | be handled (by the DOD)
        | 
        | https://www.cyberdefensemagazine.com/data-spill-an-
        | everyday/
        | 
        | This is a better summary. At the start, everyone's phones
        | would likely be confiscated and, I would think,
        | destroyed, if they were discovered to have classified
        | data on them. However, if the data was in the cloud it
        | would be an even bigger deal.
 
      | JackGreyhat wrote:
      | No...But it creates pressure in the form of soundwaves,
      | which could be picked up by ears and brains to translate it
      | into sound ;) Everything required to make sound is there.
      | 
      | Was that your point?
 
| moffkalast wrote:
| Spain: "First time?"
 
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