[HN Gopher] The rise and fall of peer review
___________________________________________________________________
 
The rise and fall of peer review
 
Author : Vinnl
Score  : 168 points
Date   : 2022-12-15 11:29 UTC (11 hours ago)
 
web link (experimentalhistory.substack.com)
w3m dump (experimentalhistory.substack.com)
 
| larkinnaire wrote:
| There are some good points here, but the sweeping conclusion
| (presented with utter certainty) does not follow from them.
| 
| It seems like the author's beef is with journals, rather than
| peer-review. If we did away with "peer review" today, journals
| would still have to operate the same way -- they'd still have
| many more submissions than they have room for, so a team of
| people (ideally, peers) would need to, uh, review those
| submissions according to some criteria. We can discuss whether
| the criteria should be adjusted, but I don't see how journals
| survive without gatekeepers.
| 
| So, fine, he wants to do away with journals. Without a
| description of an alternative system, it sounds like the best
| researchers would just...upload their stuff to Arxiv and hope
| that someone reads it? Again, I'm not saying there _is_ no
| alternative, but because he spends all his time arguing against
| "peer review", he spends no time discussing alternatives to
| journals that would solve more problems than they create.
| 
| He addresses the question "can we fix peer review instead of
| replacing it" by discussing ways that fixes have failed in the
| real world. So what makes him think that a replacement would be
| easier? The "burn it all down and rebuild it according to my
| preferences" approach also doesn't have a great track record!
| 
| And the certainty with which he states his conclusions gives me a
| sense that this is not someone who's super open to feedback.
 
  | larkinnaire wrote:
  | [response to a deleted comment]
  | 
  | > The issue is too systemic at this point
  | 
  | Ah, but there are also systemic issues that prevent Congress
  | from doing the things you'd like them to do. For instance,
  | Congress is vulnerable to money. Journals have money they can
  | use to lobby. Are there other players with money and incentive
  | to lobby for the "burn it all down" side? Which mountain of
  | systemic issues is easier to climb? Sounds like an empirical
  | question.
  | 
  | Solving the problem by either approach is going to be really
  | really complicated and full of compromises you won't like, and
  | anyone who talks like their solution is super simple and
  | obvious should be read with skepticism.
 
  | [deleted]
 
| photochemsyn wrote:
| Peer review is not the reason academic research has turned into a
| garbage fire - it's because of the corporatization of the
| university and the transition from the open research model to the
| patent-seeking profit-generating research model.
| 
| The latter has its place, certainly, but before the 1980s that
| place was industry-funded private research institutions, the most
| famous and well-known being Bell Labs. These institutions were
| funded by groups of corporations who in return got first dibs on
| their patentable work, and the researchers and engineers in turn
| got good salaries and didn't have any teaching responsibilities.
| 
| After Bayh-Dole passed in the 1980s, universities were allowed to
| grant exclusive licenses to their patentable research to private
| entities, and this resulted in the rise of the corporate
| univesity model - people running around hiding their data until
| they got the patent, people fudging results to make their novel
| drug look good so their startup would be bought by some pharma
| corporation, administrations being overrun by pharmaceutical
| executives who only cared about universities generating a steady
| stream of patents, and forget about quality-of-teaching.
| 
| It's been a complete disaster, and not only that, the private
| research world has largely been defunded as corporations realized
| that, with the aid of politicians, they could just outsource
| basic R&D to universities, using grad students as cheap underpaid
| lab labor on projects where they're little more than glorified
| lab techs, and not really doing any original research.
| 
| In addition, the whole system is increasingly authoritarian and
| censorship is rife - any academic who calls for the elimination
| of exclusive licensing and the adoption of open-source drug
| discovery will soon find themselves without a job. It's similar
| in many ways to the Lysenko era in Soviet science, just run by
| corporate authoritarians instead of Stalinists. Avoid if
| possible.
 
  | pdonis wrote:
  | I would add that the funding source for most research now is
  | governments, which means that research is now optimized for
  | getting government grants instead of for actually advancing
  | science.
 
| qudat wrote:
| Peer review incentivizes the worst features of humanity: it
| affords peers in your field the ability to reject your paper
| because they want to take the idea for themselves and then
| publish it.
 
  | photochemsyn wrote:
  | In the corporate university, the usual game is to get the
  | patent approved first, and hold off on the publication until
  | that happens. At least that's the case in applied technical
  | science - the social science world seems more like a club where
  | the involved players just rubber-stamp each other's non-
  | reproducible work in order to up their publication count and
  | pack their CV. The actual work has no value, so why would
  | anyone bother stealing it?
 
    | sideshowb wrote:
    | If that were true we'd see more patent applications in, say,
    | engineering, than journal papers in the same field. (Or at
    | least around the same order of magnitude). Do the numbers
    | check out?
 
      | ketzu wrote:
      | My experience was: Most papers are not useful for patents.
      | Corporate funding might require a pre-publication review
      | for patent worthyness, and if it is there, it is applied
      | for before publication.
      | 
      | Most researchers I knew had little interest in patents, so
      | non-corporate funded papers got published without patent
      | considerations. When it came up, it was a before-you-
      | publish-think-about-it topic.
 
  | rubslopes wrote:
  | I'm not sure that's a real problem. Papers go around a lot
  | before being submitted to a journal. People would notice that
  | on the spot.
 
    | qudat wrote:
    | Shrug. I used to work in a lab where they talked about it
    | happening. Purely anecdotal
 
| fastaguy88 wrote:
| Wow. Pretty clear this paper was not peer reviewed. Many of the
| arguments would not get past a high school English teacher. 'A
| whole lot of money for nothin' perhaps, but that money is not
| spent on peer review. Peer review doesn't improve research
| productivity .... This reminds me of the argument that we should
| not spend more money on education, because education budgets have
| gone up, but test scores have not. The argument implies (but does
| not state, because of the absurdity), that spending less money
| would raise scores. And, remarkably (/s), peer review does not
| guarantee that all scientific results are reproducible and
| correct.
| 
| As the author points out, no one has done the control. We don't
| know how much worse the scientific literature would be without
| peer review, and we don't no how many important insights are lost
| because of poor reviews. But as someone who has done a lot of
| peer review (and has had papers rejected with uninformed
| reviews), it is difficult to state how much worse things could
| be. (But perhaps that is an overstatement, as very few papers do
| not find their way into some journal).
| 
| The scientific literature today is overwhelming. Peer review
| helps make it less so.
 
  | kansface wrote:
  | > The argument implies (but does not state, because of the
  | absurdity), that spending less money would raise scores.
  | 
  | I think the correct take away is spending on education is only
  | very loosely coupled to outcomes once some very low threshold
  | is met.
 
  | trompetenaccoun wrote:
  | >Wow. Pretty clear this paper was not peer reviewed. Many of
  | the arguments would not get past a high school English teacher.
  | 
  | How is that clear? There are plenty of papers out there that
  | contain glaring errors and got accepted anyway, if you
  | regularly read publications you should know this better than
  | anyone.
  | 
  | Also you confirm one of their criticisms and contradict your
  | own argument that peer review helps improve scientific
  | literature. What do you base that on, apart from belief?
 
  | photochemsyn wrote:
  | Arxiv doesn't use peer review and seems to have lots of
  | readable quality papers.
 
  | xracy wrote:
  | I've long wondered if a part of peer review needs to be
  | replication.
  | 
  | OR if there needs to be better incentives around finding
  | nothing out. Like, given the goal is getting published, it
  | feels like there should be better incentives for papers around
  | not finding anything in an interesting way, or hypothesis
  | testing and discovering your hypothesis was wrong.
 
  | Vinnl wrote:
  | > it is difficult to state how much worse things could be
  | 
  | Because there's no proof. The only thing we know for certain,
  | is that a lot of money is being spent on it, and that some of
  | the mechanisms that are supposed to work can't work (i.e. in
  | the case where people look at and trust preprints anyway).
  | 
  | There will definitely be anecdotes of peer review having caught
  | things (though it'll be harder to show that that prevented
  | harm). But likewise, there are also many, many anecdotes that
  | it has been actively harmful.
  | 
  | No proven upside, limited anecdotal upside, and proven
  | downside. If peer review as a publication gatekeeper hadn't
  | already been a thing, we wouldn't introduce it -- that would be
  | considered unscientific. Sounds like something that's ripe for
  | reconsideration.
 
    | sseagull wrote:
    | A paper that is not peer reviewed is basically like a blog
    | article. There are great blog articles, but also a lot with
    | basically nonsense written by people who think they know
    | something but don't. There's a lot of noise. How is someone
    | going to know, before they read it, whether they should spend
    | time on it?
    | 
    | It's a bar to clear. It helps to increase the signal to noise
    | ratio. It's not perfect - bad articles get published, good
    | articles get rejected. But imperfection is part of life.
    | 
    | One thing is that knowing your paper is going to be peer
    | reviewed might discourage a lot of cranks from trying to
    | publish. Also, I believe editors have the ability to outright
    | reject papers before they even go out to peer review. This
    | cuts down on completely irrelevant and terrible articles.
 
      | timr wrote:
      | > A paper that is not peer reviewed is basically like a
      | blog article.
      | 
      | The one thing has nothing to do with the other.
      | 
      | I have seen _many_ "peer-reviewed" articles regarding Covid
      | in 2020-2022 that were no better than blog posts. It isn't
      | a panacea, and the last two years have drawn into sharp
      | relief one of the major problems of the system:
      | confirmation bias.
      | 
      | Peer review is worth no more than the "peers" who review
      | it, their objectivity, personal investment in the claim,
      | and the level of effort they put into the review. For
      | example, if the "peers" are a group of people who are all
      | seeking to confirm their prior beliefs about a
      | controversial topic, the peer review process is almost
      | completely useless as a signal of quality. Papers that
      | confirm groupthink are routinely shunted to the high-status
      | members of the group for like-minded "review" and rubber-
      | stamp approval. Papers that challenge groupthink are almost
      | invariably nit-picked and/or dismissed entirely. _Many
      | never even make it to peer review_ , because the journal
      | editor rejects the submission.
      | 
      | Throw in issues like reviewer bias toward "established"
      | authors and fields, as well as lack of blinding and
      | selection bias amongst the reviewer pool, and you have a
      | recipe for a formalized system of groupthink.
 
        | soundnote wrote:
        | Apart from active confirmation bias, simple blind spots
        | can also cause a lot of trouble. As one example
        | heuristics and biases researchers Stanovich and Toplak
        | found that their Actively Open-minded Thinking (AOT)
        | instrument had a bug. It stood for twenty years because
        | the bug was consonant with a secular-liberal worldview so
        | no one really thought it might be wrong.
        | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2019.03.006
        | 
        | This, of course, when the scientists themselves are
        | honest, acting in good faith and eager to fix their
        | mistakes as Stanovich and Toplak were.
        | 
        | In openly political fields like sociology and
        | whateverstudies, you get "researchers" blatantly
        | manufacturing their conclusions in scale construction.
        | 
        | As one example of some of the gems of scientific
        | integrity in these fields is the finding that
        | conservatives are higher in hostile sexism. Will any
        | liberal check this? Of course not, because it conforms to
        | their expectations that their political opponents are
        | bad. Even if they are honest, if they just glance at a
        | paper they won't question it, and it won't feel weird to
        | read in a quick report on the research.
        | 
        | How was the sausage made? In at least one study, the
        | entire hostile sexism scale was two items long, and one
        | item was, not kidding, "feminists are making entirely
        | reasonable demands of me." And in the greatest surprise
        | ever people dislike their political opponents. Bam,
        | conservatives bad, because we're measuring their
        | attitudes towards politically partisan activists, not the
        | fairer sex.
        | 
        | (The question also presumes that feminists' demands are
        | reasonable. If the activist set are insane, a low score
        | on the question would be an indicator of sanity, not
        | misogyny or simple political partisanship. As an example,
        | Simone de Beauvoir: "No, we don't believe that any woman
        | should have this choice. No woman should be authorized to
        | stay at home to raise children. Society should be totally
        | different. Women should not have that choice, precisely
        | because if there is such a choice, too many women will
        | make that one. It is a way of forcing women in a certain
        | direction.")
        | 
        | There's also the famous case of Bob Altemeyer's Right-
        | wing Authoritarianism scale which is explicitly
        | constructed so that leftists will score lower on it than
        | rightists. Cue decades of results that authoritarianism
        | is more prevalent on the right. Quelle surprise.
 
        | sseagull wrote:
        | > It isn't a panacea, and the last two years have drawn
        | into sharp relief one of the major problems of the
        | system: confirmation bias.
        | 
        | I believe I was explicit in saying it wasn't perfect.
        | 
        | What alternative is there that doesn't have something
        | resembling peer review, isn't curated by third parties,
        | doesn't suffer from confirmation bias/groupthink, and
        | doesn't leave it up to authors to sift through 100s of
        | papers of unknown quality a day to learn about what's
        | going on in the field?
 
      | SpicyLemonZest wrote:
      | I guess they'd know the same way as they do for blog
      | articles? I'm confused about the premise here. As the
      | author says, all the academics I know already do spend lots
      | of their research time reading blog posts and preprints
      | other sources which haven't been vetted for quality.
 
        | Vinnl wrote:
        | And one can come up with plenty of alternative ways of
        | discovering relevant research without blocking or
        | delaying publication or having researchers spend many
        | hours bending over backwards for all kinds of minutiae
        | that don't meaningfully help with that goal.
        | 
        | (Disclosure: I volunteer for one attempt at such an
        | alternative, https://plaudit.pub.)
 
    | poulpy123 wrote:
    | > Because there's no proof.
    | 
    | Have you ever worked in research on a topic a bit trendy or
    | fascinating for the general population? Because the world is
    | full of people convinced that they are the new Einstein
 
    | fastaguy88 wrote:
    | I don't understand how we know that a whole lot of money is
    | spent on it. A lot of volunteer (unpaid) time is spent on it,
    | but not much money. And I'm also unaware of the "proven"
    | downside.
    | 
    | But you might ask yourself, why do so many scientists waste
    | so much of their time doing peer review. Perhaps they are
    | ignorant, or easily duped, or perhaps they believe that peer
    | review is a valuable use of their time.
 
      | ProjectArcturis wrote:
      | That time is coming from somewhere -- it's time that's not
      | spent doing actual research. It's certainly not free.
      | 
      | When I was in academia, I did peer review initially because
      | it was fun to be on the other side for once. And later
      | mostly as a favor to the editors who asked me.
 
        | pixl97 wrote:
        | And how many things did you find that were incorrect in
        | the peer review?
        | 
        | That seems to be the point that the anti-peer review
        | people are missing.
 
        | ProjectArcturis wrote:
        | I found some things wrong. Occasionally these were minor
        | things that the authors corrected. Sometimes they were
        | major problems, and I recommended that the paper be
        | rejected because they were unfixable. In that case I'd
        | usually see the same paper get published in a different
        | journal later on.
 
        | cauch wrote:
        | So your conclusion should be: peer-reviewing is working,
        | but some people are not using it right.
        | 
        | You then need to assess exactly what is this percentage
        | of still being published despite having things wrong in
        | it. If this percentage is small, peer-reviewing is still
        | more profitable then no peer-reviewing at all (in which
        | 100% of the bad papers are published).
 
        | cauch wrote:
        | > it's time that's not spent doing actual research
        | 
        | Actual research includes keeping up to date with peers
        | progress.
        | 
        | If you were doing research but not regularly reading new
        | publications anyway, either you were working on a less-
        | fundamental-research side of things, or, without even
        | realising it, you were exploring directions already
        | explored or losing time by not profiting from a new
        | useful approach.
        | 
        | It is just incorrect to say that the time used to read
        | carefully a peer paper is taken over the time of doing
        | research: if you were not peer-reviewing this paper, you
        | maybe would have been reading carefully the same paper in
        | order to keep up to date with your peers.
        | 
        | In fact, one can lose its time peer-reviewing, but its
        | their own fault: in general, you just need to target the
        | review for articles that are useful for you to read
        | anyway.
 
      | _aavaa_ wrote:
      | For starters we know that a lot of money is spent on it in
      | terms of getting the end results. As you say the peer
      | review is done by volunteers, but the final product is then
      | sold back to those same reviewers (or their institutions)
      | for an insane markup.
      | 
      | > or perhaps they believe that peer review is a valuable
      | use of their time.
      | 
      | Or perhaps they believe that if they don't do that work
      | then bad papers will be published under the authoritative
      | rubber stamp of the journals and that they will not need to
      | spend the same amount of time down the road finding out
      | if/how the fascinating study is wrong after having paid 40$
      | for the pdf.
 
      | Vinnl wrote:
      | The proven downside is the money/time spent on it. And
      | plenty of that "volunteer" time is time researchers would
      | otherwise have spent on research. (Note: I'm not counting
      | the time spent doing the review and feeding that back to
      | the researcher -- that can be valuable. I _am_ counting
      | time spent doing countless revisions just to please a
      | reviewer, time spent resubmitting work elsewhere, etc.) And
      | don 't get me started on money wasted on price-gouging
      | publishers thanks to their role as gatekeepers of career
      | credentials.
      | 
      | The question is not why scientists spend time doing peer
      | review. The question is: why do academics waste time
      | bending over backwards to adapt to the whims of a
      | particular reviewer even beyond when they feel the input is
      | useful? (And the answer is above: the career credentials.)
      | 
      | Again, I'm not agains peer review _by itself_. But it
      | should not be a gatekeeper to publication, nor have this
      | much leverage on people 's careers (a binary decision for
      | every article).
 
  | AlbertCory wrote:
  | > The argument implies ... that spending less money would raise
  | scores
  | 
  | only in your imagination does it imply that.
 
  | ren_engineer wrote:
  | >We don't know how much worse the scientific literature would
  | be without peer review
  | 
  | all of human history prior to the last 50 years? The term "peer
  | review" didn't even exist until the 60s
  | 
  | https://scalar.usc.edu/works/the-art-of-academic-peer-review...
 
    | wolverine876 wrote:
    | The progress of science has never been greater than under the
    | peer review system.
    | 
    | I'm sure we can improve it, but if science since the 1960s is
    | a failure, than almost everything in human history is a
    | failure.
 
    | fastaguy88 wrote:
    | I do not understand this argument. Just as peer review is
    | relatively young, so is the massive expansion of the
    | scientific literature. Perhaps in the 50's (when there was
    | peer review, at least in biochemistry and microbiology), an
    | investigator might reasonably believe they were familiar with
    | most of the literature in their field. That has not been true
    | for decades. So, by volume (if not impact), most scientific
    | results are young and have been subject to peer review.
    | 
    | Perhaps part of the argument has to do with the specific form
    | of peer review. In the 18th and 19th centuries, much more
    | science was communicated via correspondence and books. But I
    | suspect there was still a review process, just one that was
    | less democratic and more dependent on reputation.
 
  | svachalek wrote:
  | > This reminds me of the argument that we should not spend more
  | money on education, because education budgets have gone up, but
  | test scores have not. The argument implies (but does not state,
  | because of the absurdity), that spending less money would raise
  | scores.
  | 
  | The argument perhaps implies that spending less money would not
  | lower scores, but as put here does not imply anything about
  | raising scores.
 
| osigurdson wrote:
| I'm not sure about the pros and cons of peer review but if anyone
| is claiming that that are doing science, then they must publish
| raw data so that others can review it. This was the first thing
| that jumped out at me after reading "Accelerate" - so many claims
| that everything based on "data". I don't necessarily disagree
| with the conclusions in the book but I think really just a
| formalization of Google's development practices. The book should
| have been called "How we do things at Google".
 
  | phyrex wrote:
  | Well in the book that actually has that content (and very
  | nearly that title: https://abseil.io/resources/swe-book) they
  | explain that they set themselves up to follow the best
  | practices found by the company that eventually published
  | Accelerate, even before google bought them
 
| xracy wrote:
| > All we can say from these big trends is that we have no idea
| whether peer review helped, it might have hurt, it cost a ton,
| and the current state of the scientific literature is pretty
| abysmal. In this biz, we call this a total flop.
| 
| "We can't say anything about this, so it's clearly a total
| failure." lol Seems like the author wants this both ways.
| 
| Also, I don't know why they think replication would be _more
| likely_ if we didn 't have peer reviewers at all. Feels like a
| larger jump from "your study won't be reviewed" to "your study
| must be replicated" than from "your study is being reviewed" to
| "your study is being replicated".
 
| passwordoops wrote:
| Had one paper with 5 reviewers: 4 thought it was pretty good or
| awesome, the 5th not... With about 7 pages' worth of criticism
| that were mostly invalid. I resubmit, with modifications. That
| same week a paper of virtually the same study (not plagiarized,
| just coincidentally the same study) is published by a heavyweight
| 6 hours up the road from us. So reviewer 5 says, even if the
| modifications are good enough, this has already been done by a
| bigger, better researcher and is therefore not original. Paper
| gets rejected outright.
| 
| So my supervisor does some digging, and guess who reviewer #5
| just so happened to be...
| 
| Frack academia
 
  | DawnKFunk wrote:
 
  | broberts01 wrote:
  | Academia is fundamentally broken. All the incentives are messed
  | up and I have a hard time trusting anything that has been
  | "researched" at all. Really disappointing.
 
  | titzer wrote:
  | > guess who reviewer #5 just so happened to be...
  | 
  | Write to the PC chair and the steering committee of the
  | conference. Those kinds of actions do have consequences. At a
  | minimum you should be able to request a conflict-of-interest
  | review of the situation.
 
    | passwordoops wrote:
    | 1- This was 2008 and the guy's retired by now.
    | 
    | 2- Outside of engineering (or at least in the Chemistry/Bio
    | field where I came from), conference submissions are
    | abstracts not papers. There may sometimes be special issues
    | where speakers are invited to submit a paper after the fact.
    | But "paper" here means drafting the full manuscript and
    | submitting it to the publisher when you're ready to be
    | published in a future issue. So no steering committee, just
    | an Editor-in-Chief who conducts research in the field. In
    | fact referencing conference abstracts was always frowned upon
    | because they never contained enough information to be
    | properly scrutinized.
    | 
    | Speaking of, this whole "reputable papers only happen with
    | conferences" phenomenon was unheard of to me until I joined
    | an engineering company
 
      | titzer wrote:
      | I'm confused. You had 5 reviewers for an abstract and one
      | of them produced 7 pages of criticism? I'm aware of many
      | venues in Chem that are abstract submission, but it sounds
      | like you were in a full-paper situation.
 
        | shpongled wrote:
        | OP never said it was an abstract - they are from chem/bio
        | (like me), where papers are submitted primarily to
        | journals, not conferences. They mentioned abstracts in
        | response to your comment about writing to the "steering
        | committee of the conference"
 
| cs702 wrote:
| Whether the "peer review" experiment has succeeded or failed is
| debatable... but anecdotally, everyone I know in academia feels
| the current publish-or-perish peer-reviewed system is BROKEN: It
| incentivizes everyone to pursue low-risk, incremental, mostly
| inconsequential, easy-to-explain research with high certainty of
| short-term success, _instead of_ high-risk, exploratory,
| consequential, hard-to-explain research with high uncertainty of
| long-term payoff.
| 
| This is _true_ :
| 
| > From antiquity to modernity, scientists wrote letters and
| circulated monographs, and the main barriers stopping them from
| communicating their findings were the cost of paper, postage, or
| a printing press, or on rare occasions, the cost of a visit from
| the Catholic Church. Scientific journals appeared in the 1600s,
| but they operated more like magazines or newsletters, and their
| processes of picking articles ranged from "we print whatever we
| get" to "the editor asks his friend what he thinks" to "the whole
| society votes." Sometimes journals couldn't get enough papers to
| publish, so editors had to go around begging their friends to
| submit manuscripts, or fill the space themselves. Scientific
| publishing remained a hodgepodge for centuries.
| 
| This is _true_ as well:
| 
| > That all changed after World War II. Governments poured funding
| into research, and they convened "peer reviewers" to ensure they
| weren't wasting their money on foolish proposals. That funding
| turned into a deluge of papers, and journals that previously
| struggled to fill their pages now struggled to pick which
| articles to print. Reviewing papers before publication, which was
| "quite rare" until the 1960s, became much more common. Then it
| became universal.
| 
| Finally, this is also _true_ :
| 
| > Now pretty much every journal uses outside experts to vet
| papers, and papers that don't please reviewers get rejected. You
| can still write to your friends about your findings, but hiring
| committees and grant agencies act as if the only science that
| exists is the stuff published in peer-reviewed journals. This is
| the grand experiment we've been running for six decades.
 
  | inglor_cz wrote:
  | "everyone I know in academia feels the current publish-or-
  | perish peer-reviewed system is BROKEN: It incentivizes everyone
  | to pursue low-risk, incremental, mostly inconsequential, easy-
  | to-explain research with high certainty of short-term success,
  | instead of high-risk, exploratory, consequential, hard-to-
  | explain research with high uncertainty of long-term payoff."
  | 
  | That is what I keep hearing from my academic acquaintances as
  | well - When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good
  | measure. And this is what happened with publish or perish.
  | 
  | Let's not forget that Katalin Kariko, a giant in the mRNA
  | field, was demoted by UPenn in 1997 because they considered her
  | work unproductive. But mRNA was precisely the topic that
  | _required_ a multi-decade commitment.
  | 
  | Fortunately she was stubborn like hell. God know how many other
  | people give up after being degraded like that.
 
    | watwut wrote:
    | That is complain against the grant system and the way funds
    | are distributed. It is not complain abour peer review itself.
 
      | djha-skin wrote:
      | The article makes it clear that peer review and funding are
      | intricately linked and that one would not exist without the
      | other, at least in the beginning.
 
        | watwut wrote:
        | It does not make clear that at all. It does not claim
        | peer review can not exist without things those scientista
        | complain about (publish or perish etc).
 
    | lazyjeff wrote:
    | I've had my ups and downs with peer review. I'm trying to
    | collect stories of papers from ideation to publication, while
    | also describing the struggle for my own papers.
    | 
    | I've written the backstories for 30 of my papers here:
    | https://jeffhuang.com/struggle_for_each_paper/
    | 
    | Looking at my past experiences for all my papers, I can only
    | conclude that the process is more nuanced than can be
    | described in a tagline like "peer review is broken" or
    | "publishing is random", so I'm interested in hearing everyone
    | else's experiences too.
 
    | xipho wrote:
    | > But mRNA was precisely the topic that required a multi-
    | decade commitment.
    | 
    | It all comes down to this ^ for me. Advances take decades
    | from start to finish. Institutions/organziations (including
    | funders) need to start not just funding innovation (1-5 year
    | cycles), but investing, really committing, to 20-100 year
    | plans, at minimum.
    | 
    | My biggest fear is that hands are thrown up in the air, and
    | science turns into yet another "content" producer (there are
    | signs, to me, that this is exactly where we are headed).
    | Can't produce science^D content fast enough? Skip peer-
    | review. Community of experts getting in your way? Ignore
    | them. We need to get science into tik-tok, because think of
    | the reach for STEM! Really, do we need science to equate to
    | 15-second dopamine hits?
    | 
    | None of this to say that there aren't problems with peer
    | review, but, at least in the field I'm in, peer review is
    | critical, useful, and an important aspect of becoming a
    | scientist. If anything, learning to peer-review teaches one
    | how to critically evaluate others work. Are there people who
    | aren't taught how to Peer review? Sure. Does this mean that
    | we should stop peer-review? The logic doesn't follow.
 
  | biomcgary wrote:
  | The Sydney Brenner quote around the mid-point of the page
  | captures the reality quite well, "it's simply a regression to
  | the mean". Or, given the typical peer review mechanisms,
  | regression below the mean. If the original author is above
  | average and the paper has three reviewers, any one of which can
  | block publication, what is the likelihood that the paper will
  | be blocked by someone less competent than the author? If
  | reviewers are sampled at random from the scientific population
  | (they aren't, it's usually worse) then blocking the paper is
  | almost guaranteed to be blocked by someone less competent than
  | the author.
  | 
  | A few journals are slowly moving toward a better system where
  | publication happens first, then the reviews are published. As a
  | scientist, I would certainly prefer to read the reviews without
  | them blocking/delaying publication.
  | 
  | However, the real problem with peer review is its role in
  | awarding grants, not in publishing papers. I have no idea how
  | to fix that problem without introducing other problems. Too
  | much incentive to game the system.
 
    | sandgiant wrote:
    | This argument makes no sense. Why would "less than average"
    | referees block a paper? And why would editors select referees
    | from the population at random? I don't know about other
    | fields, but that's certainly not how things work in physics.
    | 
    | I would say it's more like a club where everyone knows each
    | other. If you are authoring a paper you often know who the
    | potential referees are (those that published most in the
    | field), and you politely ask the editor to exclude referees
    | that are in open conflict with you. Editors usually abide and
    | you get a reasonable review of your paper.
    | 
    | I agree about most other issues raised about peer review in
    | general and related incentives, but the issues raised here
    | are not some that I recognize.
 
      | biomcgary wrote:
      | In biology (my area), it is quite frequent for reviewers to
      | "suggest" additional analyses/experiments that reference
      | the the reviewers work or sub-field, which delays
      | publication and inflates citations of reviewers. Thus, some
      | people seem to make a strategy of volunteering for review
      | to get more citations.
      | 
      | My understanding is that physics has used arXiv much longer
      | and more consistently than biology has used bioRxiv, so
      | communication suffers less from the impact of delayed (not
      | just blocked) publication.
      | 
      | Physics is a smaller research community than biology, so it
      | is not surprising that club effects have more pronounced.
      | Some less funded sub-fields of biology definitely have that
      | feel (e.g., ecology and evolution), but anything remotely
      | biomedical seems to suffer from the rando reviewer effect
      | much more.
      | 
      | In my experience, the historic "squishiness" of biology and
      | the rapid growth of NIH funding (and hence graduate
      | students mills) leads to a larger population of less
      | rigorous thinkers than in physics. We don't have math
      | requirements to filter those folks out.
 
| AlbertCory wrote:
| Excellent article.
| 
| The "experts" very rarely take enough time to actually understand
| the paper and question its assumptions, and often aren't even
| qualified to do so.
| 
| I had one article on the Xerox Star, way back in the day, that
| passed peer review for TOOIS with just some reasonable
| suggestions to cite related work.
| 
| However, this one: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/results.cfm
| (which was cited in an _amicus_ brief to SCOTUS for the CLS Bank
| case)
| 
| was rejected by CACM, by an "expert" review at Microsoft Research
| who admitted he knew nothing about patent law. Microsoft is a big
| believer in software patents, so he's hardly unbiased.
| 
| His comments said at one point, because he talked to a patent
| lawyer "the patent law has changed!" while clearly not knowing
| that the laws on obviousness had not changed at all.
 
| ynab4 wrote:
| "God isn't real! Religion is a farce! Your imaginary sky daddy
| wont save you."
| 
|  _Worships peer reviewed science journals and believes that AI
| and technology will save us_
| 
| Really makes you think.
 
| notlukesky wrote:
| Humans can game every system. Then you can tweak the system to
| make it better for a period of time till it is gamed again.
| Rinse, wash and repeat. Same flaws exist with all ratings systems
| and many are just mathematical garbage.
 
  | toomim wrote:
  | Not every system. Some systems can detect gaming, and fight
  | back, like a body's immune system.
  | 
  | https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1SRWbyA2uCnda1JwAZ3Ji...
  | 
  | https://peeryview.org/about
 
| karaterobot wrote:
| > (When one editor started asking authors to add their raw data
| after they submitted a paper to his journal, half of them
| declined and retracted their submissions. This suggests, in the
| editor's words, "a possibility that the raw data did not exist
| from the beginning.")
| 
| I'm not a researcher, but I've interviewed a lot of researchers
| in the context of data sharing. I'd go out on a limb and
| attribute this reluctance not to lack of any dataset whatsoever
| in most cases, but to a feeling of ownership over your "IP", and
| an instinct to protect it. In a niche scientific domain, it's not
| totally paranoid to worry that you could be giving your data to
| the competition. I heard this again and again, though mostly it
| was _everyone else_ who did it, not the interview subject...
| 
| There's also just the work involved in getting the data in shape
| to send to people, which can be a pain in the butt.
 
| mgamache wrote:
| Most published medical research is wrong...
| 
| https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/jo...
 
  | Retric wrote:
  | Wrong is hardly the ideal metric here. Being less wrong than
  | random can beat being correct and utterly trivial.
 
    | mgamache wrote:
    | The standard is a p value of .9 or .95. Not a flip of the
    | coin.
 
| bjornsing wrote:
| Scrap peer review and slash research funding. Saves taxpayer
| money, and saves science.
 
| nixpulvis wrote:
| > Weak-link thinking makes scientific censorship seem reasonable,
| but all censorship does is make old ideas harder to defeat.
| 
| Reduce the social, political, professional, and academic cost of
| "being wrong", learn to have a little more empathy and suddenly
| negative reviews will hold more meaning once again. People will
| learn to learn instead of learn to defend. (Of course, defense is
| a skill worth learning as well. Please don't take what I'm saying
| as this-or-that.)
| 
| You simply cannot do away with peer review! What you can
| eliminate is the control strictures that exist today which punish
| failure unfairly. This is true at all levels, from the highest
| institution right on down to that conversation you had with a
| colleague over coffee yesterday.
 
  | bratwurst3000 wrote:
  | Thanks you nailed it
 
  | Vinnl wrote:
  | That's the key here: if peer review is feedback rather than a
  | barrier to sharing your findings and progressing in your
  | career, then negative (though of course, in this situation
  | review would no longer be a binary negative/positive) feedback
  | could be considered input again. But the current setup of peer
  | review, like this article is arguing against, assigns a high
  | cost to "being wrong" (in the eyes of about two reviewers).
 
    | nixpulvis wrote:
    | Right, but where is the threshold for wrongness which is so
    | widely accepted as truth that it becomes harmful enough to be
    | actively removed? If I began preaching of the correctness of
    | 1+1=3 surely someone would deny my publication, no? Or, the
    | critics would outweigh the proponents. How can this be
    | accomplished without division or empathy?
 
      | ProjectArcturis wrote:
      | You'd still have peer review, but in a very different
      | sense. Instead of a formal process by 3 reviewers, you'd
      | have an informal process by everyone who read the paper.
      | People would read your dumb 1+1=3 paper, realize that it
      | was wrong, ignore it, and pay less attention to you in the
      | future.
 
        | nixpulvis wrote:
        | What motivates people to even pick up the paper in the
        | first place in this system?
 
        | ProjectArcturis wrote:
        | The paper is in their field of research?
 
        | p0pcult wrote:
        | What motivates people to "do science"?
 
      | Vinnl wrote:
      | I mean, where is it now?
      | 
      | > That debunked theory about vaccines causing autism comes
      | from a peer-reviewed paper in one of the most prestigious
      | journals in the world, and it stayed there for twelve years
      | before it was retracted. How many kids haven't gotten their
      | shots because one rotten paper made it through peer review
      | and got stamped with the scientific seal of approval?
      | 
      | The point is not to prevent it from getting out there in
      | the first place -- that is already possible, you can just
      | upload a PDF to some website. Doing that for a paper
      | arguing 1+1=3 wouldn't be any more accepted if peer
      | review's role would be limited.
 
  | photochemsyn wrote:
  | AI peer review might be a solution. This would hopefully tend
  | to limit rejections to technical issues like a poor choice of
  | statistical analysis, and eliminate ideological conflicts.
  | 
  | Where peer review gets a bit more shady and political is in the
  | federal funding system, where the outcome is not a publication,
  | but delivery of thousands to millions of dollars in federal
  | funding. That's where politics really comes into play, although
  | nobody in any field wants to talk much about it publicly.
 
    | staticman2 wrote:
    | "AI peer review might be a solution."
    | 
    | Or you could just consult an Ouija board.
 
    | nixpulvis wrote:
    | Excuse me, but AIs are _not_ my peers. Thank you.
 
      | photochemsyn wrote:
      | Peer as in the aristocratic tradition of people of equal
      | social standing and status? That's how you end up with
      | institutional corruption, one hand washing the other, PI's
      | rubber-stamping each other's shoddy work because members of
      | the club are expected to support each other, and so on.
      | 
      | Or, peer as in someone of equivalent actual knowledge and
      | experience? AI isn't there yet, but I imagine a machine
      | learning model trained on published papers in a given field
      | would be able to quickly spot a lot of simple errors and/or
      | poorly supported conclusions.
 
        | vehemenz wrote:
        | A general purpose AI is going to struggle with technical
        | concepts and terminology that it has never learned
        | before, but the whole point of many papers is to
        | introduce these very concepts and terms.
 
        | sideshowb wrote:
        | And presumably only accept your paper if you make all the
        | same mistakes the currently dominant paradigm does
 
| lo_zamoyski wrote:
| Peer review in academia may very well be like the suppression of
| prostitution in Aquinas' thought: yeah, prostitution is really
| bad, but if you try to suppress it, things will become far worse.
| The prudent statesman, while rightly repulsed by prostitution as
| such, humbly recognizes the limits of his power to constrain
| human vice through legal means. Of course, that doesn't mean that
| there aren't ways to encourage a populace toward self-reflection
| and self-discipline that don't involve legal suppression.
 
| poulpy123 wrote:
| What a load of horseshit:
| 
| * There are less great discoveries because there are less great
| and easy things to discover
| 
| * Time has filtered the scientific studies of the previous
| centuries
| 
| * You don't look at the efficiency of a filter (peer reviewing)
| by the amount of shit that pass through, but by the rating
| between this amount and the amount of shit that doesn't pass
| through
| 
| * A lot of researchers don't want to release their raw data not
| because they invented their data but because they want to keep
| the monopoly for them
| 
| * Peer reviewing has failures and could be improved, but it is
| the best and quickest way to judge a scientific work (with
| credentials let's be honest)
 
  | casey2 wrote:
  | I agree, that was a load of horseshit, especially bullet 1.
 
    | Lichtso wrote:
    | I strongly disagree with the first point: As a society the
    | more we discover, the more we increase the surface of the
    | discoverable and the more we can combine things. It only gets
    | harder for the individual because it takes longer and longer
    | to learn everything necessary to get to the frontier of the
    | unknown. It is not a problem of running out of viable
    | research topics.
 
    | janalsncm wrote:
    | I agree with the easy part. The low hanging fruit has mostly
    | been discovered. If you want to invent something new you're
    | probably going to need a team of SMEs working on it.
 
| p0pcult wrote:
| Compelling arguments!
 
| truth777 wrote:
| I see a few major problems in the pursuit of modern scientific
| inquiry.
| 
| - Bureaucratization. The modern university model is basically the
| DMV. It functions to sustain the lifestyle of the administrators
| in charge and to prevent them from losing power, money, status.
| And no one enjoys it, not the employees, not the customers, etc.
| and yet who can change it for the better? It can and does only
| get worse, more bureaucratic, more soul sucking. Ask the post-
| docs.
| 
| - Feminization of academia and science. This is related to the
| bureaucratization. Process, safety, paperwork, meetings and
| community consensus are paramount. All becomes politics. Everyone
| must agree. Only small questions can be answered. You need
| permission for everything. Anything truly novel is considered a
| threat to the scientific community. Modern day "scientism" and
| other beliefs are the replacement to christianity in the west,
| and women are more religious (look it up), and academe is the
| modern day church. All dissent or inquiry is squashed.
| 
| - Denial of Great Man Theory. Great men invented modernity, and
| of course our modern industrial state requires many layers of
| managers due to the huge complexity, so sizes of labs, colleges,
| corporations, assembly lines, supply chains have exploded, and no
| one person can manage it all in their mind.
| 
| The false belief is thus: modern industrial society requires the
| managerial class to function, therefore the managerial class
| invented it, and it requires the managerial class to progress.
| Therefore great man theory, or the idea of the innovative genius,
| is supposedly debunked.
| 
| And yet you see nearly all major advances come from tech bros
| like Elon Musk et al who are trailblazers, ignore complaints of
| the bureacracy, etc.
| 
| - Could the university system have produced facebook, spacex,
| tesla, microsoft, apple? You can go on and on.
| 
| Please don't interpret this as an attack on women or femininity.
| Society requires everyone for it to function properly, and
| everyone has a positive contribution to make, but we have to be
| able to iterate and change when we realize certain modes of
| endeavor simply do.not.work.
 
  | fastaguy88 wrote:
  | Interesting political philosophy, but little that speaks to the
  | pursuit of science. Universities may be bureaucratic, but those
  | bureaucracies have almost nothing to do with scientific
  | agendas. Likewise, grant review panels work hard to find
  | innovative, not consensus, proposals. Again, the main thing the
  | management does is demand more external funding, it does not
  | set scientific direction. And, of course, Facebook, Microsoft,
  | etc is not science- at best it is engineering.
 
    | logicalmonster wrote:
    | > Likewise, grant review panels work hard to find innovative,
    | not consensus, proposals.
    | 
    | I don't want to give specific examples of research topics to
    | avoid poisoning the well, but could you argue with a straight
    | face that an academic that wanted to do research into some
    | topics that could be likely to yield certain types of
    | politically incorrect conclusions wouldn't face extreme
    | difficulty getting funding or extreme risk to their career?
    | 
    | I think it's easy to see how much scientific research on
    | certain topics could be stuck within a narrow range of
    | opinion because people are more concerned with what gets
    | funding or doesn't get them shunned.
 
      | fastaguy88 wrote:
      | I do not know anything about grant panels outside my field
      | of biology. But I am certain that the overwhelming majority
      | of grant money is spent on scientific questions that have
      | virtually no obvious political dimension. I'm sure there
      | are grant applications that have a substantial political
      | component, but I would be surprised if they accounted for
      | even 5% of research funds. Social and political science
      | receives a very small fraction of research funds, and while
      | one might argue that allocations of health research budgets
      | are politically shaped, viruses and oncogenes have no
      | politics.
 
  | iosono88 wrote:
 
  | poulpy123 wrote:
  | > - Bureaucratization
  | 
  | Bureaucratization is the consequence of wanting to control that
  | taxes are "properly" used.
  | 
  | > - Feminization of academia and science.
  | 
  | That's abolutely moronic viewpoint if you ever worked in
  | science
  | 
  | > - Denial of Great Man Theory
  | 
  | All scientific works, even by genius, lie on the works of
  | others, predecessors or colleagues.
  | 
  | > And yet you see nearly all major advances come from tech bros
  | like Elon Musk et al who are trailblazers, ignore complaints of
  | the bureacracy
  | 
  | lol what scientific progress Elon Musk did except giving
  | material for the sociology of internet trolls ?
  | 
  | > - Could the university system have produced facebook, spacex,
  | tesla, microsoft, apple?
  | 
  | You're so close to understand that university and industry are
  | not the same and have not the same goals
 
    | p0pcult wrote:
    | Apparently, the sexism is rampant in here.
 
  | p0pcult wrote:
  | >"Feminization"...[bad stuff]...[dubious, gender
  | essentialization]
  | 
  | >Denial of Great Men...[bad stuff]
  | 
  | >Please don't interpret this as an attack on women or
  | femininity
 
| user3939382 wrote:
| Here's a great talk on this subject from the world of medical
| science:
| 
| "Financial Conflicts of Interests and the End of Evidence-Based
| Medicine"
| 
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6IO2DZjOkY
 
| h-sg wrote:
| I did my time in the peer review trenches trying to give
| constructive feedback and reproduce results, only for editors to
| stop asking me to review or saying "don't waste this much time on
| this"
 
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