[HN Gopher] The elusive future of San Francisco's fog
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The elusive future of San Francisco's fog
 
Author : anyonecancode
Score  : 117 points
Date   : 2022-09-15 11:03 UTC (11 hours ago)
 
web link (www.nytimes.com)
w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
 
| glerk wrote:
| https://archive.ph/OJYqz
 
| annoyingnoob wrote:
| Redwood trees need the moisture in the air. Some of those trees
| are a couple thousand years old. Is this the end for Redwoods?
| 
| https://www.nps.gov/redw/learn/nature/about-the-trees.htm
 
  | hedora wrote:
  | The redwood forests around south bay / santa cruz are showing
  | stress. There are many dead ones in parks in silicon valley.
  | Here's an article about drought and albino redwoods from last
  | year:
  | 
  | https://www.sfgate.com/california-parks/article/California-a...
  | 
  | This year was even drier.
 
    | annoyingnoob wrote:
    | Our forests are in really sad shape in 2022. Nothing like
    | what I remember as kid, so many dead trees now.
 
| spatulon wrote:
| One of the more memorable and surreal experiences I had on my
| visit to SF was walking around Golden Gate Park, and suddenly
| seeing what looked like the mast of an alien sailing ship looming
| out of the fog in the distance.
| 
| It turned out to be Sutro Tower.
 
  | mertd wrote:
  | Had you acquired chocolate bars from some hippies by any
  | chance?
 
    | azinman2 wrote:
    | You know you can just go to a store for that now, and they're
    | not run or frequented by hippies.
 
      | baby wrote:
      | Depends if it has mushroom in it
 
        | azinman2 wrote:
        | Fair enough
 
        | cheriot wrote:
        | You'll be able to go to a store for that soon as well!
        | 
        | https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/10/us/san-francisco-
        | decriminaliz...
 
        | MyChurch wrote:
        | You can find that too at zide door
 
      | FutureZeitgeist wrote:
 
  | gfd wrote:
  | I was curious what that looked like and turns out there are
  | videos on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60fqruVDrjs
  | 
  | Pretty cool!
 
| julianeon wrote:
| There's also the "fog 2.0" we're seeing now, which is really
| smoggy air which is visible because of the particulate matter
| from wildfires.
| 
| I'd say we see this type of "fog" more often than real fog in SF
| today.
 
  | shagie wrote:
  | https://fire.airnow.gov has the map of the smoke plumes,
  | locations of fires, and air quality sensors.
  | 
  | For a given sensor, you can pull up the hourly data for the
  | past 7 days.
 
  | clpm4j wrote:
  | I can't recall a single day this year during which we've had
  | what you've described. Certainly the "more often than real fog"
  | statement is completely false.
 
    | julianeon wrote:
    | I'm not sure what we're disagreeing about here.
    | 
    | Do you doubt there's been smoggy air here in SF, which you
    | can see due to particulate matter from the wildfires? This
    | happens often. I mean it's basically just slightly thicker
    | than normal smog. And there have been many fires. It's an
    | unremarkable, common occurrence in the Bay Area today, this
    | smog that is made worse by fires.
    | 
    | When it's moist out - not enough for real fog, mind you - it
    | can pass for a fake fog.
    | 
    | Due to the heat, there's also been much less real fog.
    | 
    | So all I'm saying is that there have been more days w/visible
    | smog than fog in SF in 2022. Which I stand by, as something
    | I've observed, which is also something you'd expect, given 1)
    | number of fires increasing smog and 2) heat wave decreasing
    | real fog.
 
| bragr wrote:
| I grew up in the central valley in California and it is already
| very noticeable how much less tule fog [1] there is from just a
| few decades ago. It just doesn't get as cool at night and
| humidity is lower on average and that significantly reduces the
| fog formation.
| 
| [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tule_fog
 
  | annoyingnoob wrote:
  | I once drove through Dinuba with my head out the window to try
  | to see past the hood of my car, it was crazy.
 
| refurb wrote:
| What is with all these "experts fear this might happen" articles?
| 
| It's weird. Not enough _actual_ news to cover?
 
  | colinmhayes wrote:
  | News is highly undifferentiated. If you want to stand out among
  | the copycat news sources you also need to provide long form
  | articles and a distinctive slant, which NYT has spent the last
  | decade building.
 
    | bobthepanda wrote:
    | Also, this kind of long form investigative journalism is what
    | has died out in most newsrooms in an effort to reduce costs.
    | 
    | We already pretty much killed local news, no need to reduce
    | everything to an AP feed.
 
  | woodruffw wrote:
  | Normally we ask experts to give their expert opinions.
  | 
  | I don't think the NYT (or anyone, really) is hurting for news
  | to cover either. It's been an exciting year.
 
| carapace wrote:
| Surprisingly deep article.
| 
| A little known fact is that the coastal forests exhale fog. You
| can watch them breath out drifts of cloudstuff at the right time
| of day and weather conditions.
| 
| They are releasing moisture, but also microscopic pollen that act
| as the nuclei of fog/cloud droplets and actually cause
| condensation.
| 
| The California Coastal Commission is more important than you
| might realize. Keeping the coastal forest intact and operational
| effectively "air-conditions" the whole state to the Sierras. The
| Central Valley would be an oven without the coastal forests.
 
  | femiagbabiaka wrote:
  | Yes. Many of my favorite places in the PNW (so far) are the
  | coastal forests and beaches in Mendocino County, around Eureka.
  | A similar phenomenon can also be observed in the forests around
  | Marin/Mill Valley. I always imagine Karl starting the trip from
  | there.
 
    | bitxbitxbitcoin wrote:
    | The coastal forests in Northern California are beautiful. One
    | geographical note: Eureka is in Humboldt County.
 
| jhu247 wrote:
| Biking across the golden gate bridge when the fog and wind is
| blowing through from the Pacific is one of the most immersive
| (and scary) experiences ever. Highly recommend!
 
  | whiplash451 wrote:
  | Try doing it from the top of a Big Bus too! Amazing!
 
| sammalloy wrote:
| > The general consensus among the small cadre of scientists who
| study coastal fog is that it is decreasing, not just in
| California, but around the world.
| 
| It's true. The last time I saw thick fog in the city, the kind
| where you almost had to pull your car over because there was a
| chance you might hit another car, was 1989.
 
  | prpl wrote:
  | we would get it in the Richmond. The thickest fog in the bay
  | area right I know if is always around Skyline between Westmoore
  | and Hickey - it still gets that thick there.
 
  | boringg wrote:
  | Fogust seemed to be getting lighter when I was living there as
  | well. Anecdotal but noticeable.
 
  | spike021 wrote:
  | You should visit Daly City; Skyline (35) still gets shrouded in
  | fog fairly often.
 
    | fennecfoxen wrote:
    | Also, if you miss the fog, both Skyline and US-1 in that part
    | of the world are absolutely gorgeous.
 
  | acchow wrote:
  | I heard most of the city used to be very foggy for months on
  | end. But now most of the city is sunny all year round before
  | noon till early afternoon (about 11am-3pm) except maybe parts
  | of outer sunset and outer richmond. In Bayview, fog doesn't
  | even usually roll in until after 10pm (except in July)
 
    | lambdasquirrel wrote:
    | This is true. I've lived in the Bay Area since '05, and have
    | met many people who were there since the 80's and 90's.
    | Actually, I think most of them have left. But by the mid
    | 2010's, many of them would comment on how unusual it was that
    | the fog just wasn't rolling in anymore.
    | 
    | One person I knew was sensitive to certain allergies that
    | would become markedly worse without the fog. So she _knew_.
    | 
    | It isn't just SF proper. Along the peninsula, on Highway 35,
    | the fog used to be so thick you couldn't see more than 30 ft
    | in front of you - maybe even 10 ft some days, and especially
    | in the evening. I lived in those mountains around the
    | 2006-2007 timeframe, and it was fun to drive down the 35 by
    | memory (at least if you were an indestructible-feeling
    | 20-something), since it wasn't possible to see down the road
    | for any safe distance. Nowadays, there might be fog, but it's
    | invariably "safe."
 
      | whiplash451 wrote:
      | Another bit of history. The first navigators kept passing
      | by the bay for years because they could not see the bay
      | from the sea due to the fog. This is why people settled in
      | SF later than in other places in the region. So, the fog
      | was probably damn thick at the time.
 
        | Melatonic wrote:
        | And from what I remember Skyline drive was the original
        | way to go north and south on the peninsula (dirt road)
 
        | aerostable_slug wrote:
        | No telling stories about how great the Lucky Penny was.
 
        | sammalloy wrote:
        | > And from what I remember Skyline drive was the original
        | way to go north and south on the peninsula (dirt road)
        | 
        | PTSD, activated! I had a sadist as a DMV driving
        | instructor who forced me to take my test on that road.
 
    | Melatonic wrote:
    | When I hear people complain about the weather in SF now I
    | always think "if only you knew...."
 
    | eweise wrote:
    | I lived in SF from 1989 to 2006. In the summer, downtown was
    | usually sunny during the day while sunset and richmond were
    | socked in. Fog moved further in towards the
    | afternoon/evening. I lived in the sunset and richmond the
    | whole time and didn't see any change. In 1989 I sometimes
    | didn't see the sun for weeks and 2006 still didn't see the
    | sun for weeks, in those districts. Maybe something has
    | changed in the last 15 years?
 
  | [deleted]
 
  | renewiltord wrote:
  | Happened last year in Ingleside Terraces. Could barely see the
  | curb.
 
  | dekhn wrote:
  | I had a nice view from UCSF 1995-2001. Fog came in full and
  | thick nearly every day. When I drive from San Mateo to South SF
  | I frequently see a large offshore flow causing massive fog at
  | Mt San Bruno. Any possibility your data is mainly anecdotal?
 
    | BoorishBears wrote:
    | If we're going by anecdotes... when I came to this city I was
    | told thick blinding fog is a daily occurrence, but I was here
    | a good week or two before the "real" fog came in, and while
    | fog does come often, _that_ honestly doesn 't come often.
    | Maybe 3 times a week.
    | 
    | I classify "real" fog as days where I go from being able to
    | see half of SF and even a bit of Alameda... to not seeing the
    | houses a block down from my balcony.
    | 
    | I'll admit it's impressive and straight up disorienting
    | sometimes, (looking out at what was a skyline 20 minutes
    | before and seeing nothing but grey), but if the locals'
    | anecdotes about how often it used to happen are even somewhat
    | accurate, it sounds like it's on the decline.
 
      | dekhn wrote:
      | It's not daily- there is more like a cycle caused by
      | changes in offshore flow and temps in the inland valleys.
      | I'd see a week without any fog, then a two weeks of in-and-
      | out fog, then a week of total fog, including times when I
      | couldn't see more than a few avenues towards sunset, or the
      | park looked like some misty dream.
 
    | bartread wrote:
    | Concur: I spent perhaps 10 days in the city in 1995 split
    | into two blocks at end of June and beginning of September.
    | Definitely foggy on multiple days, especially over towards
    | Golden Gate Park and the bridge.
 
  | vorador wrote:
  | This must depend on where you live in the city - just yesterday
  | we had massive fog in the morning and at night in the sunset.
 
  | arethuza wrote:
  | We still get haar a lot here in Scotland - its very common on
  | the Firth of Forth:
  | 
  | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haar_(fog)
  | 
  | Edit: I have no idea whether haar occurs more or less
  | frequently - I moved to a spot where it is very visible a few
  | years back so it certainly looks more common to me!
 
  | [deleted]
 
| changoplatanero wrote:
| One good thing about less fog: fewer canceled flights from SFO.
 
  | moomoo11 wrote:
  | More pollution yay
 
  | hedora wrote:
  | SFO flights usually get cancelled because of cross winds, not
  | fog.
 
  | cbhl wrote:
  | Increasing the separation between runways would be sufficient
  | to get most of the way there; planes can be landed solely on
  | instruments if the runways are far enough apart.
 
    | ThinkingGuy wrote:
    | There's more to it than runway spacing, of course. The runway
    | and the aircraft both must have the necessary equipment
    | installed, and the flight crew has be trained and certified
    | in its use.
 
    | acchow wrote:
    | Is there physical space for this?
 
      | cbhl wrote:
      | You may find historical maps of SFO helpful:
      | 
      | - https://www.sfomuseum.org/about/blog/interactive-
      | historic-ma...
      | 
      | - https://millsfield.sfomuseum.org/map/
      | 
      | Much of the current runways are on what was part of the
      | water in the bay just 100 years ago.
 
  | boringg wrote:
  | The cost is greater than the benefit.
 
| diebeforei485 wrote:
| It's definitely getting less foggy in the summers. People in the
| east side of San Francisco are installing AC or wishing they had
| AC.
 
  | moomoo11 wrote:
  | Could that also be due to transplants? 80% of people in SF
  | apparently don't stay that long and move out. I can easily
  | imagine someone moving to SF and enjoying the nice temps most
  | of the year.
  | 
  | The two weeks of high heat that everyone on California coasts
  | experiences can cause such people to freak out and want an AC
  | instead of dealing with it or going outside. I live in a
  | coastal city where it's 70 basically every day except for 10
  | days of the year when it can be high 80s/90s. Just get a fan.
 
    | diebeforei485 wrote:
    | No, these are not transplants freaking out because of two
    | weeks per year.
 
    | _jal wrote:
    | I moved here in '93. I'm not a native, but I don't think I
    | can be considered transient.
    | 
    | I got an AC unit for the first time two years ago. Following
    | tradition, it didn't arrive until I didn't need it, but I ran
    | it last year, and then a lot this year.
    | 
    | I live in SOMA, it is usually a couple degrees warmer here
    | than the city average. But that doesn't account for the 99F
    | reading on my outside thermometer last week.
 
      | moomoo11 wrote:
      | I'm not talking about you because you've been there for
      | years now.
      | 
      | I meant that most people move to SF for a couple years and
      | then move out due to costs or whatever reason. I read
      | somewhere that 80% or so of SF is this way. Students, job
      | hoppers, workers, etc.
      | 
      | How was SF in the 90s?
 
| keepquestioning wrote:
| Is it possible to destroy the fog completely via weather
| engineering?
 
  | trillic wrote:
  | If the land and the ocean are the same temperature there won't
  | be fog so just make the ocean 100 degrees problem solved.
 
| shagie wrote:
| The archive.ph link for the article lacks much of the interactive
| experience.
| 
| The gift link for it -
| https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/14/climate/san-f...
 
| encoderer wrote:
| Yes it would be sad if it were totally gone but let's not imagine
| that it's great living in a super foggy place where you lose the
| ability to appreciate the natural beauty of your neighborhood.
| The foggiest parts of the city also generally have the worst
| weather overall. I'm sure there are some people that really like
| it but generally speaking it's not desirable to have high winds
| and dense fog.
 
  | Sirened wrote:
  | the fog is part of the natural beauty
 
| Helmut10001 wrote:
| I once did a film about the fog and its fundamental importance to
| Windsufing in San Francisco [1]. I hope it stays.
| 
| [1]: https://vimeo.com/77666233
 
| subsubzero wrote:
| Who knows, dense fog could be an artifact of the abnormally wet
| 20th century that California has seen, looking back 2000 years
| the typical state for California is very dry. Back 1200 years
| there were a few megadroughts that lasted centuries, here is an
| article that shows history of drought/rain in California, (on the
| infographic showing wet and dry periods) notice the huge peaks in
| the 20th century, and the steep drop in the 21st century.
| 
| https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/14/science/californias-histo...
 
  | mellavora wrote:
  | yes, but also look at the age of the trees in the coastal
  | forest (or the age of the trees which didn't get cut down by
  | us). Suggests that they might be a different "micro" climate;
  | also note the earlier comments that they create fog.
 
  | trillic wrote:
  | I assume this consistent fog is an function of higher latitudes
  | with dry hot inlands and cool oceans. Especially in the desert,
  | fog will form near the coast.
  | 
  | As SF Bay adds a lot of coast line, meaning more cool ocean
  | closer to more hot land than most coastal cities, I'd imagine
  | that has a large effect on why fog forms.
  | 
  | If ocean temps rise faster than average land temps, the average
  | difference between them will shrink, perhaps bringing on
  | average less fog?
  | 
  | Interesting reading: https://ggweather.com/sf/narrative.html
 
| cammikebrown wrote:
| I grew up in Sacramento. The fog has gone from ubiquitous to
| nearly completely gone.
 
| photochemsyn wrote:
| The offshore california current transports cold surface water
| from the Gulf of Alaska down coast, and there's wind- and
| current-forced upwelling of deep, cold nutrient-rich water from
| the deep Pacific Basin. The interaction of cold water and warm
| air leads to condensation at the near-ocean surface, aka fog
| (marine layer) formation. This effect persists as far south as
| Point Conception north of the Los Angeles basin. A warmer climate
| implies an atmosphere capable of holding more water vapor before
| condensation takes place, but the transition from clear moist air
| to opaque cloud is complicated and hard to model precisely:
| 
| https://www.usgs.gov/centers/western-geographic-science-cent...
| 
| > "Fog pushes against, over, and through gaps in the coastal
| mountains, transporting water and other aerosol materials into
| coastal ecosystems. If the temperature or pressure differences
| (gradients) are too strong, winds will be generated and the
| additional turbulent mixing will dissipate the fog."
| 
| Across most of California the Coast Ranges block the inland
| movement of the offshore marine layer in summer, with the break
| in the ranges at the San Francisco Bay the marine layer can flow
| in and out without having to climb the ranges and waterfall down
| the other side (that's an impressive sight when it does). As far
| as climate, the physical flow of the California Current is driven
| by planetary rotation, but the Gulf of Alaska has been generally
| warming and experiencing heatwaves, so perhaps some warming of
| the California Current is expected:
| 
| https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/central-gulf-al...
| 
| Sometimes the atmospheric outflow from the hot Central Valley
| through the Bay gap is strong enough to keep the fog bank well
| offshore (or dissolve it altogether). It comes down to the
| dynamics of local winds, the temperature differential (colder
| ocean = more fog, hotter valley air outflow = less onshore fog).
| Climate-wise, the California Central Valley is getting warmer
| with more extreme heat days:
| 
| https://blog.ucsusa.org/pablo-ortiz/climate-change-impacts-o...
| 
| Thus, less fog coming into the SF Bay is a reasonable prediction.
 
  | sliken wrote:
  | Not sure how the Tule fog related to the SF fog, but:
  | 
  | https://news.berkeley.edu/2019/04/10/falling-levels-of-air-p...
 
| hindsightbias wrote:
| Not sure if there would be anyone old enough here - but all the
| old San Francisco Film Noirs from the 40s and 50s show SF and
| pouring rain.
| 
| Was that real or just a Hollywood thing?
 
  | xvedejas wrote:
  | SF does pour rain fairly often between January and March, those
  | films could have chosen the time of year for the desired
  | atmosphere.
 
    | tristanb wrote:
    | Not anymore. It used too every year, hardly ever now.
 
  | Melatonic wrote:
  | I grewup in the bay area (peninsula) and was in SF a lot. It
  | definitely rained a hell of a lot more. The weather now is
  | practically like what people used to think of as Santa Monica
  | weather half the year (or maybe Santa Barbara)
 
    | hindsightbias wrote:
    | They say SF will be San Diego in 50 years, so perhaps still
    | liveable.
 
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