[HN Gopher] America produces enough oil to meet its needs, so wh...
___________________________________________________________________
 
America produces enough oil to meet its needs, so why do we import
crude?
 
Author : DocFeind
Score  : 203 points
Date   : 2022-03-08 16:47 UTC (6 hours ago)
 
web link (www.nasdaq.com)
w3m dump (www.nasdaq.com)
 
| chasd00 wrote:
| better to drink someone else's milkshake before you drink yours
 
| commandlinefan wrote:
| It seems like a good long-term strategic decision to import as
| much oil as you can get away with, assuming the world will run
| out of it eventually.
 
| soperj wrote:
| They wouldn't need to go hat in hand to those other countries if
| people weren't so adamantly against Canadian oil, since it's
| mostly heavy oil.
 
| munk-a wrote:
| Oil isn't a uniform thing - it's closer to marble than limestone.
| People import tuscan marble all the time due to the grain and
| qualities of the piece itself - it's quite the same with oil -
| not every barrel was created the same and America has some
| processing facilities specialized to consume a quality of oil not
| found domestically in large volume.
 
| robomartin wrote:
| I think it is time for those in science and technology to start
| to demand we stop lying to ourselves. Anyone who has reasonable
| command of basic mathematics, basic physics and, as a bonus,
| manufacturing and supply chains can do the math and verify that
| we are floating in a sea of lies.
| 
| What are these lies?
| 
| We can save the planet:
| 
| When computed as the planetary-scale problem this is, it is very
| easy to see that the energy and resources we would need to affect
| change are in a range between impossible and massive. The scale
| of this fallacy is such that, even if we could do something, it
| is far more likely to kill all life on earth than to save
| anything.
| 
| Fix Climate Change:
| 
| Same as above. At a planetary scale it is nothing less than
| laughable to think we can do a thing about any of it. It takes
| natural processes an unimaginable amount of energy and resources
| over 50K to 100K years to drop atmospheric CO2 by 100 ppm. We
| actually have people believing in this religion that says we can
| affect climate change and save the planet in a 50 year time
| scale. In other words, 1000 to 2000 times faster than the natural
| rate of change. Nobody EVER asks them to "show the math". If they
| did, they could not. This is ignorant nonsense.
| 
| Stop using oil (petroleum):
| 
| Impossible. Impossible at a massive scale. The ignorant among us
| (which is to say, as it pertains to this problem, most people)
| think gasoline when they think of oil. Well, that's not what we
| use oil for exclusively. Petroleum is one of the most highly
| processed materials on this planet. We derive everything from
| lubricants and plastics to fuel from it. Secondarily, we derive
| almost everything you can touch and use in your daily lives.
| Almost everything at a hospital or the company you work for.
| Manufacturing of everything, from food to medical equipment,
| computers and clothes would grind to a halt without petroleum. I
| think I can say that we could not support 7 billion people on
| this planet without oil and its byproducts. In other words, once
| again, this is ignorant nonsense.
| 
| Migrate to electric cars:
| 
| In the US alone we have somewhere around 300 million vehicles. If
| anyone with the requisite knowledge took the time to do the math,
| you would quickly come to the stark realization that a migration
| to electrics is --from our current context-- impossible. About
| five or six years ago I wrote a relatively simple simulation
| model to try to understand this problem.
| 
| My model told me that we would need to ADD somewhere between 900
| GW and 1400 GW of power generation capacity in order to go fully
| electric. For context, we currently generate about 1200 GW. In
| other words, we would have to double our capacity.
| 
| For further context, a single nuclear power plan produces about 1
| GW. This means we need to build somewhere in the order of a
| thousand nuclear power plants, or, on average, twenty per US
| state. We can't build ONE in 25 years and we are actually talking
| about doing something that would require a thousand of them as if
| it were possible.
| 
| I never had confirmation of my model until Elon Musk was asked
| this very question not too long ago. For those who think what I
| just said is nonsense, I'll let him confirm my findings and
| statement:
| 
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcI6FaaDp8g&t=3510s
| 
| As Elon says, it's worse than having to double our power output.
| Our infrastructure cannot handle this. It isn't built to carry
| and handle twice the power draw. Which means we have to rebuild
| almost all of it. Imagine having to replace almost every cable
| and transformer distributing power in the US as a starting point
| (it is far more complicated than that).
| 
| So, once again, this is ignorant and stupid.
| 
| There's more, but I'll stop here.
| 
| I just heard the US President go on TV and pretty much get behind
| all of the above, again. The Prime Minister of Canada did a
| similar thing during a press conference with the leaders of UK
| and Netherlands (side note: How diluted is he that he decides to
| talk about this nonsense when Ukraine is going on? I don't
| understand.
| 
| Yes, I know, these words are put in front of them in a number of
| cases to read off a teleprompter. However, we keep living in this
| "Emperor has no clothes" scenario where everyone is repeating and
| getting behind a collective set of lies both emotionally and
| financially. Lies that are easily proven to be so with some of
| the most basic of mathematical analysis. And, here we are,
| driving society mad with imaginary nonsense indistinguishable
| from religion.
| 
| None of this is to say that cleaning-up our act isn't a good
| idea. However, the way we are going about it is to lie about both
| the reasons and plausibility of it.
| 
| Electric cars are a good idea, but we need a 50 year plan to
| radically enhance our power generation and delivery
| infrastructure. A plan that would require a doubling of our
| generation capacity. It's like building an entire duplicate of
| all of the power infrastructure in the US. Not a small endeavor.
| 
| While that happens oil will be crucially important. And oil has
| to be CHEAP or that infrastructure will be impossible to build.
| Oil has to be cheap because it is needed not just for the massive
| transportation requirements of all of the materials, components
| and systems that will go into doubling our energy production
| infrastructure, but for all of the byproducts that will be
| essential for the manufacturing and transportation industries
| (lubricants, plastics, etc.).
| 
| And so, we have the US President (and other world leaders)
| reading what someone else put in front of them, likely from a
| purely ideological perspective, while completely ignoring the
| fact that what they are saying, what they want to do, is
| absolutely impossible form that ideological framework.
| 
| The first thing a country like the US has to do in order to be
| able to reach for some of these ideas is exactly contrary to this
| ideology. We have to drill, extract and transport oil from
| everywhere in this land. Oil has to be $20 a barrel, not $130.
| Without cheap oil you cannot have a future full of electric cars.
| Which means not a chance in hell of "saving the planet" or
| affecting climate change.
| 
| And, yes, we need HUNDREDS of nuclear power plants. Solar and
| wind can't do it alone. If you want to challenge that, be my
| guest. Do the math on the insanely massive number of batteries
| and solar panels we have to produce in order to match the output
| of a 1 GW nuclear power plant (24/7/365 for 50 to 100 years).
| Calculate all the materials, resources and CO2 that would be
| consumed and produced in the manufacturing and installation of
| such a system. And then multiply that by a thousand, because we
| need about 1200 GW.
| 
| Get real.
| 
| We need to start to speak the truth so we can put forth realistic
| plans for a cleaner future.
 
  | hamstersauce wrote:
 
| mikewarot wrote:
| Because if we can buy it, and use everyone else's oil up first,
| we'll be the last to have it, instead of the first to run out.
 
  | vpribish wrote:
  | that's not it at all because A) we produce it and export it and
  | B) we will never, ever, EVER, run out of oil - we will however
  | stop using it - so C) the incentive it to pump as fast as
  | possible while it still has value.
 
  | usaphp wrote:
  | from the article: "You see, the U.S. does produce enough oil to
  | meet its own needs, but it is the wrong type of oil."
 
  | dekhn wrote:
  | Shhhh, don't let people know the Strategy!
 
  | echelon wrote:
  | > Because if we can buy it, and use everyone else's oil up
  | first, we'll be the last to have it, instead of the first to
  | run out.
  | 
  | Furthermore, the US has pricing advantages as oil is traded in
  | USD.
 
    | sfe22 wrote:
    | Not for long though
 
  | eloff wrote:
  | Obviously the extra gets exported, so it doesn't actually work
  | that way.
  | 
  | Also Peak Oil doesn't seem like it's going to happen anymore.
  | It looks like we'll phase it out long before we actually run
  | out.
  | 
  | Demand will decrease at an ever quickening pace and investment
  | in oil extraction will pretty much die. Most of the cheap to
  | extract oil has already been exploited, so that could lead to
  | oil becoming pretty expensive, pretty quickly. Despite crashing
  | demand.
 
    | Filligree wrote:
    | "Peak oil" is literally just whatever moment in time oil
    | extraction peaked. It never implied we'd run out, and what
    | you're describing is the expected outcome.
 
      | eloff wrote:
      | Peak oil was all about the supply side peaking, and what
      | that would mean in an environment of increasing, very
      | inelastic demand.
      | 
      | It looks like demand will peak first instead, which is
      | quite different.
 
      | dwater wrote:
      | When I first heard the term ~20 years ago, there was
      | speculation that we would use up the easily extracted oil,
      | and it would just get more and more expensive to produce as
      | we were driven to more challenging sources, to the point
      | that consumers would be driven to other energy sources. And
      | so "Peak oil" referred to the peak of supply, as in the
      | GP's usage. You are implying the peak will be whenever
      | demand tops out, which technically would still be "peak
      | oil" but not in the way it's been used for a couple of
      | decades.
 
      | munk-a wrote:
      | Peak oil implies that the demand actually reached a level
      | to justify that peak level of extraction and with a
      | decline[1] of the production that level of demand will be
      | unsustainable. If peak oil is reached due to a temporary
      | situation (like a war briefly driving up demand numbers)
      | then maybe it's not an immediate issue - but we'd never
      | have the same supply capacity again. It could be that in
      | the 41st century earth is still producing 100 barrels of
      | oil a year - but that's not a useful amount.
      | 
      | Running out isn't the issue - the issue is that we've got
      | an economy geared to consume a specific fossil fuel and
      | constantly growing with a dependency on that fossil fuel -
      | if we suddenly outstrip supply we could be left in a lurch
      | where we have a reduced capability to run the machines
      | that'd let us build machines that are less reliant on oil.
      | 
      | 1. The common understanding peak - but even if things just
      | remained level supply-side and demand grows it'd be the
      | same outcome
 
| kilotaras wrote:
| "overseas oil, even after shipping costs, is often cheaper than
| domestically-produced crude + _domestic shipping cost_ "
| (emphasis mine).
| 
| One reason that domestic shipping cost is so high is that 1920
| Jones Act[0] prohibits shipping between US ports with non-US
| ships. This drastically reduces competition and increases prices.
| Hawaii are particularly hit by this, with estimate $1800 per year
| per family in extra cost [1].
| 
| [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jones_Act_(sailor_rights) [1]
| https://www.wsj.com/articles/jonesing-to-give-up-russian-oil...
 
  | gowld wrote:
  | That could be fixed by a tariff on underpriced foreign oil.
 
  | istjohn wrote:
  | _> > One of the primary impetuses for the law was the situation
  | that occurred during World War I when the belligerent countries
  | withdrew their merchant fleets from commercial service to aid
  | in the war effort. This left the US with insufficient vessels
  | to conduct normal trade impacting the economy. Later when the
  | U.S. joined the war there were insufficient vessels to
  | transport war supplies, materials, and ultimately soldiers to
  | Europe resulting in the creation of the United States Shipping
  | Board. The U.S. engaged in a massive ship building effort
  | including building concrete ships to make up for the lack of
  | U.S. tonnage. The Jones Act was passed in order to prevent the
  | U.S. from having insufficient maritime capacity in future wars.
  | [1]_
  | 
  | 1.
  | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchant_Marine_Act_of_1920#Na...
 
  | sirspacey wrote:
  | This is such a fascinating look at how commerce doesn't just
  | mean "economic commerce."
  | 
  | We experienced this with supply shocks with COVID as well.
  | 
  | It's interesting to balance "have the ability to meet our needs
  | logistically" with "don't create price cartels that cause
  | inefficiency in the market."
  | 
  | Seems we'd have a vested national security interest in both
  | securing commerce and enabling price competitiveness.
 
| givemeethekeys wrote:
| A moment of silence for all the plebs who'll have to drive to
| work and back because tech giants can't figure out how to use the
| internet.
 
| bigmattystyles wrote:
| This is tangential but nothing makes me recoil more than (mostly
| Republicans in the US) using this crisis as an opportunity to
| shill for more energy extraction and production in the US. Even
| if they have a point (and it's a big 'if'), it's such a
| transparent shill for their sponsors and makes me think 'have you
| no shame?'. Though I know the answer to that last one.
 
  | WalterBright wrote:
  | Having energy independence is critical for a nation to control
  | its own destiny.
  | 
  | Note that Japan attacked Pearl Harbor bringing the US into WW2
  | because the US cut off their oil supply. And note that Germany
  | invaded the Soviet Union in order to ensure a supply of oil.
  | Successfully blocking Germany's oil access was a crucial factor
  | in winning WW2. Britain would have sank in WW2 if not for US
  | shipments of gas to it.
  | 
  | Without gas, your military is kaput.
 
  | jhallenworld wrote:
  | Manchin and Murkowski were just falling over themselves in glee
  | with this new argument for more drilling:
  | 
  | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oT9W0e1T8jQ
 
  | [deleted]
 
  | toomuchtodo wrote:
  | Even midwestern farmers continue to shill for corn ethanol to
  | hold on to their subsidies as EVs destroy demand for gasoline
  | and the corn ethanol additive. It's entrenched interests all
  | the way down.
  | 
  | https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/04/biden-electric-vehi...
 
    | mbfg wrote:
    | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-yDKeya4SU
 
    | ok123456 wrote:
    | EVs make up about 1% of car sales. Hardly "destroying demand
    | for gasoline".
    | 
    | We'd run out of lithium way before they even dented gas
    | demand.
    | 
    | If you factor in electricity generation from fossil fuels, in
    | addition the lithium mining, your EV is hardly going to save
    | the planet.
 
  | cryptonector wrote:
  | Yes, every friend of mine who says we should produce more turns
  | out to have received a check from an oil company for saying it.
 
  | president wrote:
  | If anyone is to blame for our troubles, it's you for trying to
  | make this an us vs them issue. There are valid reasons for and
  | against domestic oil production.
 
| beloch wrote:
| "Most of the oil produced in the U.S. fields in Texas, Oklahoma,
| and elsewhere is light and sweet, compared to what comes from the
| Middle East and Russia. The problem is that for many years,
| imported oil met most of the U.S.'s energy needs, so a large
| percentage of the refining capacity here is geared towards
| dealing with oil that is heavier and less sweet than the kind
| produced here."
| 
| Canada, Alberta specifically, produces precisely this kind of
| oil. In his speech announcing the ban, Biden listed several
| alternatives to Russian oil that the U.S. would rely on,
| including Saudi Arabia, but pointedly left Canada out. This is
| after one of his first acts as President was to scrap a (heavily
| politicized) pipeline that would have transported heavy Alberta
| oil to U.S. refinery centres.
| 
| It's worth asking what is going on here. Why does the U.S. seem
| to prefer relying on oil from regimes that are as morally
| questionable as Russia while snubbing a long-time stable supplier
| that is right next door?
| 
| Politically, Biden is committed to green energy and, of course,
| is not going to want to reverse his decision on a pipeline that
| Trump backed. However, reality is a thing. The U.S. needs heavy
| oil and isn't getting it as efficiently or environmentally
| friendly as it could because, as in Canada, infrastructure
| approval processes have become heavily politicized. Oil will
| indeed flow from Alberta to U.S. refineries, but mainly via
| tanker cars. This increases transportation costs and, hence, fuel
| costs. It also makes spills and accidents, such as occurred in
| Lac-Megantic, more likely.
| 
| It may be time to look at ways to free long-term infrastructure
| planning and approval processes from the short-term needs of
| politicians looking for a quick boost in the polls before an
| election.
 
| gniv wrote:
| This (the various types of crude) is not the real reason, based
| on what I read before. The US is a major (biggest?) exporter of
| refined oil products. I think even western Europe gets a
| significant portion of refined product from the US. There is
| simply a lot of capacity, built in the 2010s. So the imports of
| crude are used for refining.
 
| caeril wrote:
| We _only_ produce enough oil to meet our needs via fracked shale
| wells, enhanced recovery methods, etc, all of which comes at
| great cost, both financial and environmental.
| 
| I wouldn't expect an economist or an American Jingoist
| cheerleader to ever crack a geophysics book, but someone should
| look at the production decline curves of these wells and then
| take a wild-ass guess how much longer the shale miracle will
| last.
| 
| We import oil because "energy independence" (at least from an oil
| & gas perspective, renewables and coal may be another matter) is
| a fleeting, rose-colored dream, from which we will soon awake.
 
| chernevik wrote:
| "politicians, it seems, would rather keep a situation where
| periodic energy crises give them a cudgel with which to beat an
| incumbent"
| 
| What? The politicians that matter _are_ incumbents.
| 
| Not a great article.
 
| matt123456789 wrote:
| So if I understand correctly, US refineries are built to process
| imported oil, rather than the domestic oil drilled out of US
| land. Which means that if the US stops importing, it will not
| have a way to meet domestic consumption demand without building
| new refineries, or making (presumably) substantial modifications
| to existing processing infrastructure. What's the lead time and
| cost to build that out?
 
  | nradov wrote:
  | It's nearly impossible to build or expand refineries in the US
  | anymore due to environmental laws, real estate costs, and local
  | opposition. And I can't really blame the NIMBYs: living next to
  | a refinery sucks due to the air pollution, and risk of spills
  | or fires.
 
  | [deleted]
 
  | peter303 wrote:
  | Refineries are like nuclear plants- no new ones in almost a
  | half century (1976), but significant upgrades of existing ones.
  | Both due to environmental regulations and cost.
 
  | zubiaur wrote:
  | A new major refinery? Give or take, a decade. From planning,
  | basic engineering, to permitting, detailed engineering and
  | construction.
  | 
  | The fastest, easiest way to solve the issue is to blend our
  | light crude with heavy crude to have something usable in our
  | refineries.
  | 
  | The cheapest, fastest and safest way to move oil is through a
  | pipeline. The most geopolitically stable supplier of heavy and
  | super heavy crude oil is just north of our border. Canada. The
  | pipeline that was meant to bring their crude, the keystone
  | pipeline was cancelled after its permits were revoked.
  | 
  | The con of Canadian oil is that some of it is produced by Steam
  | Assisted Gravity Drain, a process were steam has to be injected
  | into the reservoir to heat up and reduce the heavy oil's
  | viscosity, allowing it to drain into a horizontal well, drilled
  | closely below the steam injecting well. This is an energy
  | intensive process, and if the energy to produce the steam is
  | derived from fossil fuels, it's carbon footprint is large.
  | 
  | Another potential suppliers of heavy crude is Venezuela, but
  | it's dictatorship has mismanaged the industry to the point that
  | they are importing crude and distillates.
  | 
  | There are no solutions, only trade offs.
 
    | nradov wrote:
    | If we get really desperate, expanded drilling off the coast
    | of California along with building another refinery near Santa
    | Barbara could also be part of the solution. Of course many of
    | us in California would oppose this, for understandable
    | reasons.
 
    | badloginagain wrote:
    | Venezuela oil industry is literally falling apart, the real
    | amount of oil they could produce with lifted sanctions
    | doesn't make much of a dent in global demand.
    | 
    | Oil markets are pretty tight to begin with- they're finely
    | tuned to react to even marginal shifts in supply/demand. Have
    | massive changes like the lockdowns or turn off a major
    | supplier, you see equally massive swings in price,
    | backwardation/contango levels, etc.
 
      | zubiaur wrote:
      | Absolutely! Venezuela's oil (or any) industry is not
      | viable. And you are absolutely right. Oil markets are
      | incredibly inelastic in the short run.
      | 
      | Think about your individual energy consumption. I assume
      | you have to drive and heat your house, and how much you
      | drive, and weather you heat up your house, does not, in the
      | short run, vary much weather gas is 2 dollars or 3. Many
      | many people behave the same way, thus we deem demand to be
      | inelastic.
      | 
      | Something similar happens on the supply side. Oil projects
      | are incredibly capital intensive, sometimes taking years to
      | come online. Thus oil companies, in the short term, can
      | only extract so much oil from the ground, regardless of the
      | price.
      | 
      | A supply or demand shock, that is, displacement of either
      | curve to the right or left, leads to a much larger change
      | of the clearing price.
 
      | jessaustin wrote:
      | Their equipment is in bad shape because sanctions have
      | prevented them from buying supplies, parts, tools, and
      | services. When they're able to purchase those (which could
      | be soon [0]), the equipment will be fixed.
      | 
      | All it took to get rid of sanctions on a nation that has
      | never harmed or threatened anyone was for one of their
      | competitors in the petroleum market to invade another
      | nation...
      | 
      | [0] https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-officials-meet-with-
      | regime-...
 
        | zubiaur wrote:
        | Industry sanctions started in 2018. Their production had
        | been declining since 2014. It's not just an issue of
        | equipment. Its also a brain drain, corruption, lack of a
        | functional justice system, legal guarantees, property
        | rights...
        | 
        | Competent Venezuelan oil professionals have been fleeing
        | the country and can be found in Colombia, Brazil, and
        | other oil producing countries farther away.
        | 
        | The Venezuelan regime is far, far from being harmless and
        | nonthreatening, their human violations are numerous and
        | nobody is suffering the consequences of their actions
        | more than Venezuelans themselves. I've seen the plight of
        | their people on the immigrants who fled to my own
        | country.
        | 
        | Even their own PDVSA stars don't drink the Kool-aid... It
        | was sad to share a table with disillusioned young,
        | bright, venezuelan engineers at the SPE Latin America
        | Heavy and Extra Heavy Oil Conference, so ask me how I
        | know...
 
        | jessaustin wrote:
        | Sanctions on PDVSA started in 2014. Sanctions that
        | effectively limited the import of medical supplies
        | started in 2015. [0] The Venezuelan emigrants you see in
        | your nation are fleeing the depression caused by those
        | sanctions. After that stops, many of them will return to
        | Venezuela.
        | 
        | [0] https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Timeline-of-Half-
        | a-Decad...
 
        | zubiaur wrote:
        | That timeline grossly misrepresents the nature of the
        | sanctions and is nothing more that a hit piece by a
        | propaganda arm of the Venezuelan government.
        | 
        | There is no freedom of press in Venezuela.
        | 
        | Their take on law 113-278 is blatantly false.
        | 
        | https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-113publ278/pdf/P
        | LAW...
        | 
        | Venezuelan sanctions targeting PDVSA sanctions start in
        | EO 13808.
        | 
        | https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/126/13808.pdf
        | 
        | The immigrants I see in my country are fleeing a
        | dictatorship.
 
    | giantrobot wrote:
    | > The pipeline that was meant to bring their crude, the
    | keystone pipeline was cancelled after its permits were
    | revoked.
    | 
    | The Keystone XL pipeline was meant to take Canadian oil to
    | the Gulf of Mexico to refineries intending to export it. Very
    | little of the refinery infrastructure at the terminal end of
    | the pipeline was equipped to redistribute it domestically.
    | Something like 70% of the oil transported by Keystone XL
    | would have been for export.
 
      | Teever wrote:
      | Also as a Canadian I'm a little baffled why we should be
      | prioritizing building pipelines that run north to south to
      | export our oil when we can run pipelines east to west to
      | supply our own people and export on our own shores.
 
        | cmrdporcupine wrote:
        | Why do you think this is not already the case? Just
        | curious, because it seems like many people in my birth
        | province of Alberta aren't aware that we already have
        | these pipelines, and think that people here in Ontario
        | and in Quebec are burning Saudi oil.
        | 
        | Line 9 runs practically right behind my house, and since
        | it was reversed some years ago it feeds facilities in
        | Ontario (and Quebec) with Alberta oil. Line 5 runs under
        | the great lakes, all the way from western Canada to
        | refineries in Sarnia (and is currently under threat from
        | Mich. governor, but that's a separate topic)
        | 
        | 90ish percent of Ontario's oil consumption is domestic
        | oil depending on time of year and so on. The remainder is
        | mostly from the US. Small % from middle east.
        | 
        | Oil from Alberta makes it all the way to refineries near
        | Montreal. Last I looked 70% of Quebec's oil is domestic
        | origin.
        | 
        | Politicians in Alberta have become masters of ignoring
        | this key fact in their rabble rousing.
        | 
        | Could capacity be increased? Maybe. Is it strictly
        | necessary? I don't know. Should we be reducing
        | consumption anyways? Yes.
        | 
        | See map here, on Enbridge's website, zoom in to Ontario:
        | 
        | https://www.enbridge.com/reports/2021-liquids-pipelines-
        | cust...
        | 
        | Now, the Atlantic provinces, that's another story. But a
        | much smaller market.
 
        | vkou wrote:
        | As a non-Albertan, I'm baffled by why Alberta thinks that
        | building east-to-west pipelines to prop up their economy,
        | while saddling their neighbours with all the risks is
        | good policy.
        | 
        | I mean, I understand that may be a good policy for an
        | Alberta, but there's no reason why anyone else should
        | think it's a good policy for them.
 
        | soperj wrote:
        | Alberta mines & refines oil that every other province
        | uses, and is saddled with all the pollution from that.
        | Why should Alberta prop up the economies of all the other
        | provinces and have to deal with the actual consequences
        | of that?
 
        | earleybird wrote:
        | In what way is a pipeline riskier than truck/rail/ship?
 
        | vkou wrote:
        | False dichotomy. It's not a choice between pipeline and
        | rail, it's a choice between pipeline, rail, and nothing.
        | Since its neighbours receive nothing but liabilities,
        | regardless of which option is taken, I'll go with
        | nothing.
        | 
        | Tar sands oil is an endless, pointless jobs program. It's
        | barely afloat when oil prices are high, and a rock around
        | the neck of the Canadian economy, and GHG commitments
        | when they aren't. I'm not interested in drastically
        | cutting back on my energy usage, to balance the books
        | with one of the dirtiest fuel producers in the world.
        | 
        | Pipelines do nothing for me, but encourage this
        | economically-destructive industry to expand. For every
        | dollar of wealth it generates, it destroys a dollar and a
        | dime.
 
        | earleybird wrote:
        | I'm looking at it through a lens of least impact overall
        | and totally agree about the tar sands. Trucking is
        | wasteful, shipping and trucking don't have a very good
        | ecological safety record. A good step in reducing
        | environmental effects of oil is to stop exporting it as
        | that just moves the problem elsewhere. Being self
        | sufficient and weaning ourselves off of oil & gas is a
        | step in that direction. We need to fix the problems at
        | home before telling others what to do.
 
        | earleybird wrote:
        | Because our federal government is entirely self serving
        | (from a western perspective).
        | 
        | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Energy_Program
 
        | ipaddr wrote:
        | Many reasons:
        | 
        | Because the market is bigger and demand is greater
        | 
        | Because Quebec is powered by hydro and doesn't need oil
        | and doesn't want the pipeline going east because they
        | sell power.
        | 
        | The eastern provinces get oil from offshore locally or
        | from Saudi/middle east so the cost doesn't make sense.
        | 
        | The oil is going south anyways on trucks. The pipeline
        | took so many trucks off the road.
 
        | soperj wrote:
        | >Because Quebec is powered by hydro and doesn't need oil
        | and doesn't want the pipeline going east because they
        | sell power.
        | 
        | Quebec uses tons of oil every day, whenever they fill up
        | their cars. Most of it comes from Saudi Arabia, brought
        | into the Irving Refinery in New Brunswick. Irving would
        | use Canadian oil if they could get it.
 
        | cmrdporcupine wrote:
        | Sorry but this is factually incorrect. The majority of
        | Quebec's oil is from Alberta, with some small amount
        | being from the US and only a tiny portion coming from the
        | Irving refinery.
        | 
        | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-
        | markets/pr...
        | 
        | "Line 9 has been delivering crude oil from Sarnia,
        | Ontario to Montreal since its reversal became operational
        | in December 2015. The line has a capacity of 300 Mb/d and
        | transports a combination of oil from western Canada and
        | the U.S. Midwest.
        | 
        |  _In 2018, deliveries of imported and eastern Canadian
        | crude oil on the Portland-Montreal Pipeline fell to an
        | average 2.5 Mb /d, less than 1% of its capacity._"
        | (italics mine)
        | 
        | That being said, GPP is partially correct: Quebec is the
        | highest electricity producer and consumer in Canada, but
        | it's almost entirely hydroelectric and their electricity
        | is cheap. " _Quebec's emissions per capita are the lowest
        | in Canada at 9.4 tonnes CO2e - 52% below the Canadian
        | average of 19.6 tonnes per capita._ "
        | 
        | With the highest electric vehicle uptake in the country,
        | and the lowest greenhouse gas emissions, seems Quebec has
        | the right to be smug (see
        | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnFAAdOBB1c)
        | 
        | Anyways, please don't spread political disinformation.
 
      | kodah wrote:
      | I was curious about this so I looked around. From what I
      | can tell it looks like what you're saying is part of a
      | political disinformation campaign started by Kirsten
      | Gillibrand.
      | 
      | https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2017/apr/16/kirsten-
      | gi...
      | 
      | https://www.lsu.edu/hss/english/files/university_writing_fi
      | l... (Page 5)
      | 
      | If I understand these summaries correctly:
      | 
      | 1. Countries in Latin America are developing and therefore
      | using more oil so they have less to share with us.
      | 
      | 2. We are consuming slightly more oil.
      | 
      | 3. Oil obtained from hostile and unreliable regions should
      | be replaced.
      | 
      | The effects would be that oil consumed from the pipeline
      | would be cheaper, it would be more reliable, and while not
      | being totally for domestic use would make a significant
      | dent in our oil consumption in the right categories.
      | 
      | Edit:
      | 
      | Opposition to the Keystone XL likely would have been more
      | effective if it focused on (potential) environmental
      | impacts as well as the spill that occurred in 2017. I think
      | that's what the Biden administration focused on when it
      | cancelled the permits.
 
        | giantrobot wrote:
        | PolitiFact's article is foolishly splitting hairs. The
        | concern about Keystone XL's exports was never about the
        | _oil_ but the refined products (gas, etc). The Texas
        | refineries that would have been at the XL 's terminus
        | already export a majority of their refined products.
        | 
        | They're not the only refineries that handle heavy crude
        | but they are the ones with the easiest access to the
        | export markets of Central and South America.
 
        | kodah wrote:
        | > It is true that exports of petroleum products from Gulf
        | Coast refineries have increased considerably in recent
        | years. That's part of why PolitiFact rated a similar
        | statement by Obama Mostly False in 2014. While the trend
        | adds a grain of truth to her claim, it does not mean all
        | of the oil that will come from the Keystone XL pipeline
        | will be immediately exported.
        | 
        | I don't think it's splitting hairs, that's the main point
        | of the conclusion. What she said:                   The
        | Keystone XL pipeline "doesn't even have any oil for
        | America."
        | 
        | is verifiably untrue.
 
    | vlovich123 wrote:
    | It's kind of shocking that it takes 10 years to build
    | something like this, no? Seems like there should be a way to
    | streamline this process.
 
      | grandinj wrote:
      | It is an enormously complex factory with a high probability
      | of going boom if you do something wrong, so not really, no.
 
        | Enginerrrd wrote:
        | There probably are ways to do it using modular
        | components. They did this with natural gas power plants
        | (see Wartsila power plants for example.) In that case,
        | you can probably get it down to 2-3 years.
 
        | grandinj wrote:
        | Natural gas power plants are relatively modular, and we
        | can chain together units to make a bigger power plant.
        | There is no such equivalent modular unit for petroleum
        | processing. Each plant is highly customised to deal with
        | a specific mix of different kinds of input oil, and to
        | deliver a specific mix of output petroleom products. They
        | can be reconfigured within a narrow range, but they're
        | not highly flexible.
 
      | cryptonector wrote:
      | We have an EPA. China doesn't. It's easier to build these
      | things in places where people are too poor to care about
      | the environment or don't get to (because their governments
      | don't) care about the environment.
 
        | SilasX wrote:
        | There's no way to protect the environment but by making a
        | new refinery take ten years?
 
        | cryptonector wrote:
        | Right or wrong, that is basically what happens.
 
        | willcipriano wrote:
        | China has environmental protection agencies, they just
        | aren't so incompetent that they take a decade to process
        | a application.
        | 
        | "The competent department of environmental protection
        | administration under the State Council shall conduct
        | unified supervision and management of the environmental
        | protection work throughout the country."
        | 
        | http://www.china.org.cn/english/environment/34356.htm
 
        | throwaway0a5e wrote:
        | If the Chinese agency plays the delay, deny and harass
        | game they will likely be replaced by an agency that is
        | capable of protecting the environment without standing in
        | the way of industrial progress.
        | 
        | When the EPA plays the delay, deny and harass game they
        | amass brownie points with politicians.
        | 
        | Likewise it's probably safe to assume that the Chinese
        | agency is much more set up (and well practiced at) making
        | sure things actually get done on defensible timelines.
 
        | steve76 wrote:
 
        | Lendal wrote:
        | It's more than just the environment. The more engineers &
        | scientists you have, the faster you can build it. The
        | more people you're willing to crush beneath your wheels,
        | the faster you can build it.
 
    | antattack wrote:
    | Goes to reason that heavy crude refineries should be able to
    | process light crude just fine since light crude is just a
    | fraction of the heavy one.
    | 
    | What likely is the issue is the cost - refineries will make
    | less money refining light crude oil as part of them will be
    | underutilized.
    | 
    | One thing that article did not mention is that perhaps
    | refineries have setup to refine heavy crude because of
    | Canada's tar sands and XL pipeline.
 
  | bena wrote:
  | Regardless, this does seem like a situation where the best time
  | to start that was yesterday and the second best time is today.
 
  | thematt wrote:
  | It's not just a matter of building more refineries to process
  | it. The different API Gravities of the oil are used to output
  | different products. Gasoline, jet fuel, etc.
  | 
  | So yes, you could modify refineries (at significant expense) to
  | process different grades of crude, but in order to target
  | different outputs we still need to import the different grades
  | of oil because the refineries end up mixing/matching to get the
  | levels they need. The US produces a lot of light oil, but less
  | of the medium/heavy grades you'll find in Canada or the Middle
  | East.
 
    | myself248 wrote:
    | You seem to be the first to mention, something that I think
    | is of supreme interest: How adaptable are the refineries? All
    | oil must have variations in its properties, and every
    | refinery must be able to cope with a certain amount of
    | variation.
    | 
    | If you have a refinery that's built for heavy sour oil, how
    | much lighter and sweeter can it handle without any
    | modifications at all? And how much time and money does it
    | take to broaden its range further?
    | 
    | What are the heavier grades used for, I'd imagine stuff like
    | bunker fuel and asphalt? If the prices of those end products
    | went up, wouldn't the market adapt to a certain degree, say
    | using more concrete and less asphalt, etc?
 
      | thematt wrote:
      | Lighter oils get used for gasoline, diesel, and aviation
      | fuels. Heavy oils get used for plastics, petrochemicals,
      | and road surfacing.
      | 
      | I wish there was an easy answer to your refinery question.
      | They're all different, but there are three basic types of
      | refineries:
      | 
      | The simplest is a topping plant, which is basically just a
      | distillation unit. The output you get is basically whatever
      | the natural yield of the oil is. These refineries can
      | typically only process light crudes.
      | 
      | The next level refinery is a cracking refinery. These take
      | the gas oil output from the distillation and breaks it down
      | further using high temperature, pressure, and catalysts.
      | This allows for the breakdown of slightly heavier crudes.
      | 
      | The final level is a coking refinery. This takes all the
      | residual fuel and "cracks" it into a lighter product. This
      | increases the yield of higher value gasoline, which allows
      | a refinery to take in cheaper heavier crudes.
      | 
      | Building a new refinery is a 5+ year process that costs
      | about $7-10 billion. I'm not sure what upgrading an
      | existing one costs, but it's somewhere in that ballpark.
      | Keep in mind that a large influence on the type of refinery
      | is their geographic location. They're built to accept the
      | type of oil that flows in the pipelines.
 
        | Symbiote wrote:
        | Would they also be built to produce the type of products
        | needed by the local-ish market?
        | 
        | So one in Europe will have a higher fraction of diesel
        | (used in most trucks, some cars, and some trains)
        | compared to the USA (trucks and almost all cars use
        | petrol).
        | 
        | (Compare: https://www.statista.com/statistics/189410/us-
        | gasoline-and-d... -
        | https://www.racfoundation.org/data/volume-petrol-diesel-
        | cons... -- the ratio is very roughly reversed.)
 
| jmclnx wrote:
| Simple, $
| 
| When the gas shortages happened in the 70s, a law was pass
| limiting the prices of US sourced oil sold domestically. It was
| put in place to lower the "oil shock".
| 
| I do not know the status of that law, but I assume it still
| exists.
| 
| So, US source oil can be sold at a higher price if exported and
| that forces the US to import to make up the difference.
| 
| I think there was a loophole that allowed this to happen,
| probably it was not thought at the time it would be viable to
| export US oil or US would never have the oil to export.
 
| N_A_T_E wrote:
| I recall reading we only have oil reserves to meet our demands
| for 5-15 years if sourced exclusively from ourselves.
 
| julianeon wrote:
| Seems disingenuous to not mention that most of that US oil (65%!)
| comes from environmentally destructive practices, which is a damn
| good reason to prefer imports.
| 
| Or, put simply: how much US oil comes from fracking? Not a small
| number - the aforementioned 65%. Source for this data: the U.S.
| government.
| 
| https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=847&t=6
| 
| Remember, these aren't small amounts of water either. I live in
| California, where we have drought conditions. How much water do
| you think a typical well uses? "Up to 9.6 million gallons of
| water (!!!!) per well." For just one well!
| 
| https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/analysis-fracking...
| 
| That whole sentence is worth quoting in full:
| 
| Oil and natural gas fracking, on average, uses more than 28 times
| the water it did 15 years ago, gulping up to 9.6 million gallons
| of water per well and putting farming and drinking sources at
| risk in arid states, especially during drought.
| 
| So, here's the thing. The "cost" of that water in the market is
| just the cost in dollars. But to Americans, and future
| generations? It's much higher. You can throw a stone at a US map
| and hit a state that's experiencing drought conditions right now
| (and that well water is permanently off limits for drinking).
| 
| If we can slash the real cost - the externality cost - by just
| buying it from elsewhere, we should. And we do. And that's the
| right choice, despite what NASDAQ thinks.
 
  | landemva wrote:
  | I will summarize those paragraphs - as long as USA can afford
  | to export manufacturing pollution to poor countries that allow
  | excess pollution, we should continue to have the pollution
  | dumped over there.
  | 
  | I don't agree with that. I support pollution import duties to
  | remove some of the economic advantage of dumping pollution over
  | there.
 
    | namdnay wrote:
    | Most oil isn't extracted by fracking
 
    | Spooky23 wrote:
    | The big oil producers still mostly just pump.
    | 
    | The US exhausted fields in Pennsylvania, New York and Ohio
    | 100+ years ago and has depleted the big western fields as
    | well - production in the US requires fracking.
 
  | yyyk wrote:
  | >comes from environmentally destructive practices, which is a
  | damn good reason to prefer imports.
  | 
  | I'm sure Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi, etc. really care about
  | the environment and their reports about environment
  | sustainability* are totally true.
  | 
  | The average oil producer is a dictatorship, and I suspect the
  | impact of lack of transparency is more important than the
  | drilling method - they have every motivation to cut corners,
  | while American oil is openly regulated. So from the global
  | perspective I doubt American production is more polluting.
  | 
  | * If they even have any.
 
    | xmprt wrote:
    | Other countries might be less sustainable however that lack
    | of sustainability doesn't impact the US as much. The real
    | cost of oil drilled within the US is higher than the real
    | cost of oil drilled outside the US.
 
      | yyyk wrote:
      | We're just seeing a real live demonstration that the real
      | cost of oil produced by the typical non-US oil producer has
      | its own externalities and they're not pretty. With the
      | money saved by preventing these issues one should be able
      | to solve the water problem (waste recycling?
      | desalinization? other liquids?).
 
  | opwieurposiu wrote:
  | Most of the frac water used these days is "produced water", ie.
  | dirty/salty water that comes up with the oil from other wells.
 
  | dgfitz wrote:
  | > Seems disingenuous to not mention that most of that US oil
  | (65%!) comes from environmentally destructive practices, which
  | is a damn good reason to prefer imports.
  | 
  | This reads like the NIMBY stance of oil production. "Make
  | whatever mess you want, keep it where it is! Can't have that
  | happening in my state/country!"
  | 
  | So you'd rather export pollution instead of being energy
  | independent and trying to fix fracking laws?
 
    | Symbiote wrote:
    | Oil produced from other sources (i.e. traditional wells) is
    | presumably less bad for the environment, since it isn't using
    | huge amounts of fresh water.
 
    | brokencode wrote:
    | The point is that we need to use fracking to extract much of
    | the oil in the United States, as opposed to less destructive
    | techniques that can be used in other oil fields. It's not
    | NIMBY if it truly is worse when it happens in your backyard.
 
  | president wrote:
  | Your rationale makes sense in a paradise world where there are
  | no wars and no countries vying for hegemony. There is an
  | immense national security aspect and domestic economic
  | situation you are ignoring which could not be anymore relevant
  | today.
 
  | jensensbutton wrote:
  | So the solution is the import from countries where the
  | practices are more destructive and there's less regulation to
  | reign them in?
  | 
  | > If we can slash the real cost - the externality cost - by
  | just buying it from elsewhere, we should.
  | 
  | I wonder what you think "externality" means?
 
    | t0mas88 wrote:
    | I think a lot of oil import comes from countries which don't
    | need these practices? Saudi Arabia being an example of a
    | place where the oil almost comes out of the ground on its
    | own, no need for fracking.
 
  | dchichkov wrote:
  | Putting a price of $6.5 for a gallon of gas (this is how much
  | gas in Europe normally costs EUR1.58/liter = $6.5/gallon) is a
  | right thing to do.
  | 
  | Hopefully this would diminish consumption, reduce carbon
  | footprint and wouldn't require purchasing extra crude. May
  | cause a revolt though, if advertised to the main street
  | improperly.
 
    | jcheng wrote:
    | The right thing for the environment maybe, but it would be an
    | extremely regressive tax, regardless of how it's advertised.
 
    | jrockway wrote:
    | For a smooth transition, you need to "make before break". If
    | we take away people's cars overnight, then people will be
    | stranded with no way to buy food or earn income. (Raising
    | prices on gasoline is a slower means of effecting change, but
    | people don't have the opportunity to just throw away their
    | home and home equity to move somewhere with public
    | transportation. This just makes people miserable; it doesn't
    | help them out of their miserable situation.) We can't undo
    | 100 years of terrible urban planning with one stroke of the
    | pen.
 
      | roody15 wrote:
      | Creating conditions to force people into highly dense urban
      | area also = miserable people.
      | 
      | Not sure of a good answer here
 
        | xmprt wrote:
        | > Creating conditions to force people into highly dense
        | urban area also = miserable people.
        | 
        | Do you have a source for this? Denser European cities
        | seem to have much higher happiness than people living in
        | single family residential suburbs.
 
      | FpUser wrote:
      | I consider cramming millions of people in tiny city
      | apartments terrible planning as well. I want to smell the
      | roses, not human waste. The root cause I guess that there
      | are too many of us
 
    | landemva wrote:
    | I will support $10 gallon gasoline if we first pass
    | constitutional amendment to repeal the personal income tax.
 
      | FpUser wrote:
      | Nice try. Other than the government mandating this price
      | which is just another tax the operators have no reasons to
      | suddenly charge this much.
      | 
      | Besides you either have loads of money and do not give a
      | hoot or you just live close to work.
 
        | landemva wrote:
        | Yes, add on to the tax which is already around 55 cents
        | per gallon. Would you support $6 gallon fuel tax while
        | relieving everyone from fear of IRS audits? (It's for the
        | children!) And add $10 to aviation fuel.
 
    | e4e78a06 wrote:
    | As long as public transportation in the US continues to be
    | unsafe, dirty, and slow people will continue to drive cars.
    | It doesn't matter how much public transport you build out, if
    | I have to sit next to a guy smelling like piss I will never
    | get on the subway when I have a car.
 
      | jrockway wrote:
      | You could sell your car to get the guy some new clothes and
      | a shower.
 
  | new_stranger wrote:
  | This just hints at how toxic the fracking chemicals used are.
  | It's not just the water, it's the pollution that is compounding
  | this issue. Water always has, and always will recirculate - but
  | pumping dangerous contaminants into our water tables is a big
  | problem that effects current generations as well.
 
    | dr_dshiv wrote:
    | Evidence please. (Of contaminants in water tables, not the
    | toxicity of oil)
 
      | op00to wrote:
      | You're asking for evidence that oil exploration and
      | extraction leaves contaminants in water tables? The US EPA
      | gives 5 easy to understand situations where fracking
      | destroys drinking water through toxic chemicals making it
      | into groundwater.
      | 
      | * Spills during the handling of hydraulic fracturing fluids
      | and chemicals or produced water that result in large
      | volumes or high concentrations of chemicals reaching
      | groundwater resources;
      | 
      | * Injection of hydraulic fracturing fluids into wells with
      | inadequate mechanical integrity, allowing gases or liquids
      | to move to groundwater resources;
      | 
      | * Injection of hydraulic fracturing fluids directly into
      | groundwater resources;
      | 
      | * Discharge of inadequately treated hydraulic fracturing
      | wastewater to surface water; and
      | 
      | * Disposal or storage of hydraulic fracturing wastewater in
      | unlined pits, resulting in contamination ofgroundwater
      | resource
      | 
      | https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2016-12/documents/h
      | f...
 
        | dr_dshiv wrote:
        | Those are all listed _possibilities._ Not evidence for
        | its occurrence.
        | 
        | Contrast this to the evidence for coal contaminating
        | water supplies with mercury. Fracking, despite its
        | reputation and scary name, is safe. Like, flying
        | airplanes safe.
 
        | dr_dshiv wrote:
        | Here is a very recent paper describing three worst of the
        | worst situations, where a casing was improperly cemented.
        | Even then it is really unclear how bad the contamination
        | was. Keep in mind there are over a million fracked wells
        | in the USA.
        | 
        | Hammond, P. A., Wen, T., Brantley, S. L., & Engelder, T.
        | (2020). Gas well integrity and methane migration:
        | evaluation of published evidence during shale-gas
        | development in the USA. Hydrogeology Journal, 28(4),
        | 1481-1502.
 
        | markdown wrote:
        | Can you light your tap water on fire, or do you refuse to
        | live where this "safe" fracking occurs?
 
        | Spooky23 wrote:
        | Drilling companies are able to treat the toxic soup that
        | is pumped into the ground as trade secrets, so it's
        | difficult to publish definitive data.
        | 
        | Fracking leaks methanol, salts and other compounds into
        | ground water. Operations often contaminate water from
        | leaky pits with diesel and other compounds.
        | 
        | Coal is probably the nastiest fuel by any measure. But
        | that isn't to say that fracking operations are not
        | problematic, and since industry has fought tooth and nail
        | to prevent meaningful, peer reviewed study of the issue,
        | it's absurd to compare to a well understood, well
        | measured thing like air safety.
 
      | dr_dshiv wrote:
      | Here is a review of over 20 studies showing that fracking
      | does not contaminate groundwater. Including studies by the
      | USGS, EPA, Stanford, etc: https://www.cred.org/scientists-
      | fracking-doesnt-harm-water/
      | 
      | But very open to additional evidence.
 
        | fn-mote wrote:
        | A non-partisan source would be more convincing.
        | 
        | ===
        | 
        | A spot check shows item 15 in the list, published 2014,
        | is based on work from 2011-12 and the abstract concludes
        | with:
        | 
        | > This study provides a baseline of water-quality
        | conditions in the Monongahela River Basin in West
        | Virginia during the early phases of development of the
        | Marcellus Shale gas field. Although not all inclusive,
        | the results of this study provide a set of reliable
        | water-quality data against which future data sets can be
        | compared and the effects of shale-gas development may be
        | determined.
        | 
        | That is to say, this is a baseline measurement from the
        | start of exploration, not a demonstration that fracking
        | goes not contaminate groundwater.
        | 
        | ===
        | 
        | The MIT report listed as item 26 on the list does say the
        | process is mostly safe, which I respect, but also page 39
        | lists counts of incidents over a four or five year
        | period, including 20 incidents of "groundwater
        | contamination by natural gas or drilling fluid". So it's
        | not like problems do not happen.
 
| thedudeabides5 wrote:
| Weird that this is framed as a negative thing.
| 
| The US is a leader in oil refinement technology, such that there
| are oil rich Latin American countries (Venezuela and Mexico) that
| rely on exporting crude and importing refined products from the
| US to meet THEIR energy needs.
| 
| This isn't about the US going full 'no import oil', it's about
| finding the entire west non-Russian sources of crude.
 
| tomohawk wrote:
| Not mentioned in the article, the US is actually a few different
| oil markets.
| 
| For example, the east coast has refineries, but they are geared
| for oil from the middle east. Why?
| 
| One reason is the Jones Act, which prohibits shipping between US
| ports except by US crewed/flagged vessels. There basically aren't
| any of those.
| 
| So, we ship liquified natural gas from Texas to Europe and Asia,
| but are not allowed to ship to the east coast or other US ports.
| 
| The other reason is that pipeline capacity to the east coast is
| severely constrained. Many planned pipelines have been cancelled.
| It takes decades with all the NIMBY laws to build one, but only
| one president to throw all that work out with a decree.
| 
| Pipeline capacity is further constrained due to regulations for
| boutique fuels. The gas you can use can vary from state to state.
| If you start a run of said fuel on the pipeline, you can't serve
| the whole intended market for when the pipeline was designed.
| 
| And then there is the whole ethanol thing. It has to get shipped
| at great expense from the midwest to the coasts where regulations
| say it must be used.
 
| [deleted]
 
| andrewjl wrote:
| The simple answer is that oil isn't fully fungible. Sweet vs sour
| crude, different grades, serve different needs. Different
| extraction methods are also viable at different price levels,
| many domestic sources only become profitable at higher levels.
| (Like the levels we're seeing now. Which are stratospheric.)
| 
| A good contrarian argument for energy independence is it'll
| impose a higher floor cost on oil prices, making renewable
| projects more viable. It would also make expensive one-time
| upgrades that enhance energy efficiency look better on paper when
| compared against opportunity costs.
 
| jhallenworld wrote:
| "overseas oil, even after shipping costs, is often cheaper than
| domestically-produced crude"
| 
| This is all you need to know.
| 
| If we had an oil export tariff, then we would very quickly become
| oil independent. Buyers in other countries are in competition
| with Americans for this oil, so if you really want to keep the
| price low in America, we should have such a tariff. Why should we
| give away our natural resources like this?
| 
| Additionally: in these emergency times, a reasonable argument
| could be made for price controls.
 
  | chiefalchemist wrote:
  | Well, there's that and the fact that historically oil is an
  | (economic) weapon. Some ecomonies are more susceptible to price
  | changes than others. Some can use that weapon proactively,
  | others can so nothing but reactively suffer the consequences.
  | 
  | For example, when the USA allowed fracking production to hockey
  | stick (started under Bush #2 and took off under Obama), the
  | international price dropped significantly. That hurt countries
  | such as Venezuela and Russia.
  | 
  | Oil is like a drug. Once you're hooked you're no longer free.
 
  | SiempreViernes wrote:
  | You realise that selling to the highest bidder is pretty far
  | from giving things away?
 
    | jhallenworld wrote:
    | And how much do they pay to extract the oil from public
    | lands?
    | 
    | This is very relevant because of this new thing that just
    | happened. There was an auction for rights to install an off-
    | shore wind farm. The final price was $4.3 billion. This tells
    | you the value of green energy: it's so valuable that you
    | could convince investors and banks to pony up the money.
    | 
    | https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/us-offshore-wind-auction-
    | in-...
    | 
    | So what are the auction prices for oil extraction?
    | 
    | https://www.denverpost.com/2021/10/07/john-hickenlooper-
    | oil-...
 
      | cpleppert wrote:
      | State commitments in New York and New Jersey mean that off-
      | shore windfarms are guaranteed to be profitable. The cost
      | of extraction doesn't equal the cost of the land or right
      | to drill for oil.
 
  | Animats wrote:
  | _" overseas oil, even after shipping costs, is often cheaper
  | than domestically-produced crude"_
  | 
  | If that were really true, the US would not be able to export
  | oil, which it does.
  | 
  | There may still be a tax break for some imported oil. Saudi oil
  | was taxed by Saudi Arabia, and this was tax-deductible for US
  | buyers, even though ARAMCO is owned by the Saudi government and
  | that "tax" is the government taxing itself. Not sure if this
  | still applies.
  | 
  | Some export is geography. Alaska has good access to Japan.
  | There isn't enough pipeline capacity through the Sierras. Stuff
  | like that.
  | 
  | Not sure about the refinery argument. Here's a study made
  | during the last oil glut, so the technology is the same but the
  | economics are different.[1] (Start at page 7.) Refineries can
  | crack heavy crude down to lighter fractions, but they don't
  | have to. Turns out that's not the problem. The problem is
  | getting out too many light fractions - propane, methane, butane
  | - for which markets are limited. Some distillation columns
  | can't handle too much of the light fractions. It's possible to
  | add a reformer stage to combine light hydrocarbons down to at
  | least the gasoline level, but most refineries don't have those.
  | All those problems are solveable on a scale of five years.
  | 
  | [1]
  | https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/petroleum/morelto/pdf/l...
 
    | encoderer wrote:
    | It's a lot cheaper to pump oil in Alaska than to frack it in
    | South Dakota.
    | 
    | This is why a lot of fracking stopped in 2020 when gas prices
    | plummeted. It just wasn't profitable anymore.
 
  | john_moscow wrote:
  | Price controls shift the pain point from the price to
  | availability. USSR had planned economy and fixed prices for
  | most merchandise, but you had to call in favors to "procure"
  | many wanted items from buddies working near the supply lines,
  | since officially they were practically always out of stock.
 
  | Atlas667 wrote:
  | That's a really nice summary of imperialism in the capitalist
  | era. It really shows the need business has in economically
  | dominating other countries in search of profit through the low
  | production costs in other countries. The cost of production and
  | of living (think poverty) is essential in the formula for
  | generating capital.
  | 
  | The reality of this article points out the contradictions
  | inherent in capitalist economies.
  | 
  | If there was a tariff how would that impact the rest of the
  | economy. If anything it would only solidify the position of the
  | already big enterprises who are the only ones able to withstand
  | such a hike.
 
  | nipponese wrote:
  | Exactly this. The US could make iPhones too, but we import
  | them. Unfortunately we don't have a "strategic iPhone
  | manufacturing reserve", so we have to keep it cool with China.
 
    | Atlas667 wrote:
    | Apple could not make I Phones in the US. The cost of living
    | is too high. Either you bring the cost of living down or you
    | make technology incredibly more productive. Which in itself
    | make the price of the product go down and generates less
    | profits as a tendency. Think of the shareholders my man, what
    | would they do without?
 
      | actuator wrote:
      | Apple has enough margins to make the phone in US. They make
      | it outside to increase their profits.
 
        | moonchrome wrote:
        | Where have you been for the last two years? If it was
        | just a matter of margins we wouldn't have world wide
        | shortages of components, production lines shutting down,
        | etc.
        | 
        | Even with massive multibilion investments in fabs all
        | over the place it's going to take years to bring up fab
        | capacity - in the ideal case. And that's just for one
        | component.
        | 
        | Apple doesn't even do manufacturing anyway - they
        | outsource every step of the way. What US alternatives are
        | there to Samsung displays or Foxconn assembly ?
        | 
        | Apple is too high up the chain to bring about this kind
        | of change, best you could probably do is US assembly if
        | you imposed India like tariffs. Not sure how the US
        | consumers would feel about their iPhone jumping in price
        | by 30%.
 
        | actuator wrote:
        | Systematic destruction of industrial capacity is not
        | fixed in a single year.
        | 
        | Even the outsourcing of capacity to PRC, didn't happen in
        | a single year. It happened slowly motivated by margins,
        | not due to some technical breakthroughs that were
        | happening in PRC.
        | 
        | > Apple doesn't even do manufacturing anyway - they
        | outsource every step of the way.
        | 
        | That's again a conscious choice because of margins. Apple
        | used to manufacture stuff themselves in US.
        | 
        | No one is saying Apple has to make display tech as well.
        | Buying stuff from allies like SK, Japan and Taiwan
        | shouldn't be an issue.
        | 
        | > Not sure how the US consumers would feel about their
        | iPhone jumping in price by 30%.
        | 
        | Last I checked Apple had over 40% margins on their
        | iPhone. If Apple shared the same concerns as their parent
        | country, they wouldn't work to maximize their profits,
        | even if it comes from labour working in inhumane
        | conditions.
        | 
        | The systematic destruction of US industrial capacity has
        | been in chase of profits.
 
        | ramraj07 wrote:
        | Which market research document did you get this factoid
        | from?
        | 
        | Many have gone on record and said even if they wanted to
        | make them here the engineer volume and expertise are
        | nowhere to be found except in China now. The speed with
        | which they can deploy factories for new processes in
        | China is unprecedented. You can't match that here in the
        | US. It's not apples mistake, it's the governments. And
        | the people who vote for them. Which includes you if
        | you're American (and sitting in a liberal state voting
        | democrat doesn't count; if you care that much move to a
        | swing state and vote there).
 
        | actuator wrote:
        | Adding to what the other commenter said. A lot of
        | electronics manufacturing is automated. US is costly
        | because of mainly cost of human labour, but a lot of
        | component design is anyway happening in countries outside
        | China where human labour is not cheap. Reducing reliance
        | on PRC doesn't mean, doing everything at home.
        | 
        | Take the example of processor, it is ARM, a British
        | design company's spec followed by Apple, a US company to
        | design their chip, which is made by TSMC, a Taiwanese
        | company with equipments from ASML, a dutch company.
 
        | bumby wrote:
        | > _It's not apples mistake, it's the governments._
        | 
        | Can you elaborate? From my vantage point, the impetus of
        | this was globalization and there are many hands in that
        | pot.
        | 
        | Consumers like cheap goods. Manufacturers like cheap
        | labor. Governments enact policies that effect both.
        | 
        | The result is an outsourcing of manufacturing over the
        | last four decades. It's odd to me that you give a company
        | a pass but seem to blame constituents and governments,
        | exclusively.
 
        | jonas21 wrote:
        | Governments make laws, and constituents vote to choose
        | who is in the government. Companies can do neither.
        | 
        | Any company that takes on much higher costs than its
        | competitors without getting some benefit in return will
        | not be able to stay in business for long.
        | 
        | Now what benefits might you get by manufacturing in the
        | US? Certainly, it could be good for marketing. And
        | consumers, particularly those at the high end, might be
        | willing to pay more for a product manufactured here.
        | Apple has, in fact, tried to do this. Remember when they
        | made a big deal about moving manufacturing of the Mac Pro
        | to Texas in 2019 [1]? Unfortunately, this hasn't worked
        | out as well as they'd hoped due to the expertise and
        | supply chain issues that others have mentioned [2].
        | 
        | [1] https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2019/09/apples-new-
        | mac-pro-to...
        | 
        | [2]
        | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-02-09/this-
        | is-h...
 
        | bumby wrote:
        | You're acting like laws are the only decisions that
        | matter. Laws constrain business decisions, sure, but they
        | don't dictate them. In rare cases, they constrain them
        | enough to effectively dictate them (like the Buy American
        | Act) but those are relatively rare.
        | 
        | > _Any company that takes on much higher costs than its
        | competitors without getting some benefit in return will
        | not be able to stay in business for long._
        | 
        | This gets to my earlier point. Voting at the ballot and
        | voting with your wallet are both ways to evaluate what
        | people value. Both individual consumers and businesses
        | vote with their wallets. Have you never paid more for
        | something because it better aligns with your value
        | system? Or do you strictly make purchases solely on the
        | input of price?
        | 
        | As I previously said, American consumers largely value
        | cheap shit. Companies largely value profits. Both of
        | these, taken to an extreme, can come at the expense of
        | other things like economic stability or strategic
        | independence. The difference is, I hold all three
        | (individuals, companies, and governments) accountable for
        | those choices. It just seems weird to me that so many
        | people are willing to a subset of them to task while
        | giving the other subset a free pass.
 
        | [deleted]
 
        | [deleted]
 
        | nwiswell wrote:
        | > Many have gone on record and said even if they wanted
        | to make them here the engineer volume and expertise are
        | nowhere to be found except in China now. The speed with
        | which they can deploy factories for new processes in
        | China is unprecedented. You can't match that here in the
        | US.
        | 
        | This is circular reasoning. We can't make them here
        | because we don't.
        | 
        | Yes, obviously it would take time to build capacity, but
        | it's silly to argue China is fundamentally capable of
        | something that the US is not. This is purely a question
        | of cost (and, therefore, motivation).
        | 
        | What should probably be countenanced, in my opinion, is
        | "supply chain readiness": make _some_ of the iPhones
        | domestically, so that if it becomes necessary, it is much
        | faster to ramp domestic production. That hurts profits in
        | the short term, but it probably does enhance long term
        | expectation profits (conflict with China is less
        | disastrous).
        | 
        | Unfortunately Wall Street is notorious for its emphasis
        | on the short term -- and that has next to nothing to do
        | with politics.
 
        | LordDragonfang wrote:
        | >Unfortunately Wall Street is notorious for its emphasis
        | on the short term -- and that has next to nothing to do
        | with politics.
        | 
        | While it may not originate from politicians, politics and
        | corporate short-sightedness have been so tightly coupled
        | since at least the Reagan admin that distinguishing the
        | two is arguably missing the forest for the trees.
        | 
        | But yes, the root problem is the people controlling the
        | levers of Capital for short-sighted greed, as is often
        | the case.
 
        | stjohnswarts wrote:
        | Crony capitalism and current US politics are deeply
        | rooted into each other and feed and nourish one another.
 
        | LordDragonfang wrote:
        | Blaming "crony" capitalism implies the issue is too much
        | regulation, not too little. Since I'm asserting that most
        | of the issues stem from the period of deregulation
        | following Reagan, that's clearly at very different
        | conclusion.
        | 
        | Short-sighted pursuit of profit is a failure mode
        | inherent in capitalism in general, no cronyism required.
 
        | nebula8804 wrote:
        | We don't make iPhones but there is this smart phone being
        | made here.
        | 
        | https://puri.sm/products/librem-5-usa/
        | 
        | It is like 1000$ more expensive than the China version of
        | the same phone. Could Apple and their volume get their
        | price down? Probably but it is still going to be
        | significantly more expensive.
        | 
        | If the US was desperate, we could maybe switch to this
        | phone in an emergency?
 
        | brimble wrote:
        | > Which market research document did you get this factoid
        | from?
        | 
        | Tip of the hat for a rare correct use of the word
        | "factoid".
 
        | dragonelite wrote:
        | It will probably take multiple build back better budgets
        | to restructure US infrastructure and industrial base to
        | get the ball rolling.
 
      | stjohnswarts wrote:
      | At their current level of production? Nope, US doesn't have
      | the capacity. Give it 3 or 4 years, probably, at an
      | elevated cost.
 
      | eloff wrote:
      | It's less about cost of living and more about the fact that
      | all the expertise and parts all the way through the supply
      | chain are in Asia. Bringing that industry to the US
      | requires bringing many of the supporting industries too.
      | It's no simple task and probably won't happen at this
      | point.
 
        | landemva wrote:
        | People expertise can be hired. That doesn't overcome the
        | pollution allowances other countries have. It's cheaper
        | and easier to pollute over there.
 
  | landemva wrote:
  | >>> "overseas oil, even after shipping costs, is often cheaper
  | than domestically-produced crude"
  | 
  | >>>This is all you need to know.
  | 
  | And the Jones Act which makes it cost-prohibitive to ship
  | between US ports. https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/jones_act
 
  | WheatM wrote:
 
  | cryptonector wrote:
  | Price controls have never worked, and never will work, because
  | they cannot work.
 
    | tombert wrote:
    | Sorry, do you have a citation for this? I know price controls
    | are generally not liked by economists but I don't know that
    | any have said flatout that they will _never_ work.
 
      | kajecounterhack wrote:
      | +1 in fact there are situations that definitely call for
      | price controls. For example wartime price ceilings to
      | prevent gouging. Or COVID vaccine pricing. Price controls
      | work in these cases if companies have some reason (e.g.
      | governmental mandate) to not seek the highest price.
      | Successful deployment of price controls just have to come
      | with a host of other policies to mitigate downsides. For
      | example, if you enact a price ceiling, you get shortages.
      | You deal with it by employing things like triaged
      | distribution (e.g. early COVID vaccines go to medical
      | professionals, N95 masks go to hospitals, etc, gas gets
      | rationed with much of it going to the military in wartime).
 
        | cryptonector wrote:
        | Wartime price controls don't help the consumer -- they
        | help the government keep the consumer from consuming
        | goods and services needed for the war effort, and they do
        | so by discouraging consumption.
        | 
        | There is always a sense in which price controls work.
        | It's just never the actual publicly ostensible sense.
        | Prices are too high! -consumers              Ok, we'll
        | set a price ceiling -government              Yayayayay!
        | -consumers              Hey wait a minute!  Supply has
        | vanished! -consumers               -government
 
        | kajecounterhack wrote:
        | You before this comment:
        | 
        | > Price controls have never worked, and never will work,
        | because they cannot work.
        | 
        | You after this comment:
        | 
        | > There is always a sense in which price controls work.
        | 
        | That's all I was trying to get at. We agree they work. If
        | you know what effects they're going to have, and they
        | match your intentions, then they work. If you know the
        | general populace will have a shortage of N95 masks but
        | hospital workers will be getting every mask produced in
        | the country at a reasonable price, then it works. If your
        | state has a cold snap and your citizens don't see $100k
        | bills for a few hours of power (even though many folks
        | will experience blackouts), then it works.
        | 
        | FWIW black and white statements like "price controls
        | never work" ring of a certain "rah-rah unfettered
        | capitalism is always the answer" mentality that lacks
        | nuance. Just because you've taken some macroeconomic
        | classes doesn't mean that how things work is all that
        | simple.
 
        | cryptonector wrote:
        | It's no contradiction. Price controls do not work for the
        | purpose that is generally given for them. The stated
        | purpose is generally to reduce prices seen by consumers,
        | or to subsidize producers of some particular
        | good/service. It's extremely rare that the stated purpose
        | is "to stop consumption of the product in question"!
 
        | kajecounterhack wrote:
        | > Price controls do not work for the purpose that is
        | generally given for them.
        | 
        | > stated purpose is generally to reduce prices seen by
        | consumers, or to subsidize producers of some particular
        | good/service
        | 
        | I thought I gave examples that fell outside of this?
        | 
        | * Wartime/Emergency: stated purpose is to shift supply
        | toward military/medical uses. Shortages and black markets
        | are acceptable negative side effects.
        | 
        | * Energy: protect citizens from gouging in time of
        | crisis. Lack of price controls did not prevent blackouts
        | to Texans in the US last year. It did cause many folks to
        | be saddled with insane bills.
        | 
        | You can also implement rationing to further mitigate
        | imbalances. So price may be low, but you can only buy 1
        | per day, or something like that.
 
        | cryptonector wrote:
        | > You can also implement rationing to further mitigate
        | imbalances. So price may be low, but you can only buy 1
        | per day, or something like that.
        | 
        | Generally it goes the other way around. First government
        | imposes price controls, which cause scarcity. Then they
        | impose rationing.
        | 
        | > Lack of price controls did not prevent blackouts to
        | Texans in the US last year. It did cause many folks to be
        | saddled with insane bills.
        | 
        | Price controls are not the only way you get to end up
        | with limited supply, that's true, and that situation was
        | temporary, also true, and there was no rationing (some
        | areas did not lose power because they were "privileged")
        | while all others did lose power. The people who were
        | "saddled with insane bills" were those who had a
        | specialty spot-price utility.
        | 
        | > Wartime/Emergency: stated purpose is to shift supply
        | toward military/medical uses. Shortages and black markets
        | are acceptable negative side effects.
        | 
        | I acknowledge the wartime thing, but that is quite
        | exceptional. We've had lots of price controls during
        | peace time here and all over the world, and they have
        | never worked for their ostensible reasons. When was the
        | last time we had wartime price controls in the U.S.? Not
        | since WWII.
 
        | tombert wrote:
        | > Generally it goes the other way around. First
        | government imposes price controls, which cause scarcity.
        | Then they impose rationing.
        | 
        | So if price controls + rationing were implemented at the
        | same time, you think it could work to avoid scarcity? If
        | not then why even bring up the order in which things are
        | implemented?
 
        | kajecounterhack wrote:
        | +1 this is my point, you can frequently implement
        | multiple overlapping policies whose combined effect is
        | better than an individual policy. Order doesn't matter.
        | 
        | When you say "price controls don't work" you lack
        | imagination for the space of possible policy problems and
        | solutions. Sometimes price controls will be a useful part
        | of a policy solution and likely more often than some
        | randos on the internet can think of off the top of their
        | heads. In general I would not bet on the idea that
        | "mechanism X is shit because it's not the free market."
        | Our societies have implemented many engineered economic
        | mechanisms, some of which are easy scapegoats because
        | they fail, but many of which are overlooked because they
        | work quietly in the background.
 
      | cryptonector wrote:
      | > Sorry, do you have a citation for this?
      | 
      | How about every standard economics class you can find at a
      | reasonable school? This is covered in high school and
      | university economics courses. Oh, it's not usually stated
      | as "price controls don't work", but it's covered.
      | 
      | It's quite simple: forcing the price of some good while
      | allowing supply and demand to adjust accordingly
      | necessarily causes them to adjust accordingly. Set prices
      | too low and supply shrivels, leading to shortages. Set
      | prices too high and demand falls off and searches for
      | substitutes.
      | 
      | The ostensible goal of price controls is always just that:
      | to set the price of some good so as to alleviate the burden
      | on some class of people (either the producers or the
      | consumers, depending on whether the price is set too high
      | or too low).
      | 
      | The actual goal of price controls, if it's anything other
      | than propaganda value ("look! we care about you! we're
      | doing something you want!"), does get met. So in that sense
      | price controls _may_ work, of course, if the target of the
      | propaganda is too dumb to understand they 've been had or
      | if they have no way to reject proposed price controls. But
      | that's not the sense people want -- every consumer wants
      | lower prices, and every producer wants bigger profits
      | (which often, but not always, means higher prices).
      | 
      | All that said, you _can_ make price controls work. Like, if
      | you enslave some people (generally that would be
      | _producers_ , when you want to set an artificially low
      | price on some good or service). Or maybe if automation
      | reaches such levels that marginal costs are zero for most
      | goods in most goods baskets -- I'm not sure if this has
      | been studied.
 
        | majormajor wrote:
        | Generally it's not a great idea to rely on high school or
        | entry-level university courses as the final word on
        | anything... for starters, what about situations where the
        | price is already distorted by bad actors fucking with the
        | supply levels, such as cartel or monopolist situations?
        | 
        | You've been replying to questions about specific
        | situations with generalities! That's not compelling.
        | 
        | Hell, oil was at $100+ a barrel for years within the past
        | decade, without the same level of gasoline prices seen
        | today in the US: that suggests there's more to the
        | current situation then just econ-101 "high input prices
        | mean output price has to be high too".
 
        | tombert wrote:
        | I took high school and university economics, and they
        | talked about rent controls and a few other price
        | controls, and I agree that _generally_ they probably aren
        | 't a good idea, but they _never_ said that they could
        | _never_ work in those classes. Maybe I just went to a
        | shitty school (Florida State University) but it wasn 't a
        | diploma mill or anything.
        | 
        | That said, your big rant isn't a citation, and saying
        | "LOL IT'S IN YOUR HIGH SCHOOL CLASS YOU GOOFBALL" doesn't
        | really count. I'm looking for one prominent economist
        | that has stated the price controls can _never_ work.
 
        | edmundsauto wrote:
        | Why do manufacturers sometimes set retail pricing, aren't
        | those price controls? AIUI, some products have minimum
        | contractual prices that retailers have to sell for.
        | 
        | I'm not an economist, and I tend to see economics "laws"
        | more akin to social science than physics. Ie, economists
        | describe plausible mechanisms and principles, but they
        | are not very useful to make predictions.
 
        | jsmith99 wrote:
        | Manufacturers are not interest in maximising their social
        | benefit: they want to maximise their profit and this is
        | done by producing fewer items but at a higher price (to
        | be technical, a monopoly would produce until marginal
        | revenue = marginal cost).
        | 
        | Manufacturers can set recommended retail prices but their
        | are limitations to how these can be enforced.
 
    | s1artibartfast wrote:
    | They absolutely work, but they just have significant costs
    | and drawbacks.
 
      | cryptonector wrote:
      | Oh, for some value of $work that doesn't involve their
      | ostensible reason, yes.
 
        | marcosdumay wrote:
        | During a shock, when there exists sufficient productive
        | capacity, price control together with forced production
        | (as on fines for stopping it or worse) do really work.
        | 
        | For obvious reasons (and very good ones), this is
        | something people won't accept unless the shock is really
        | serious, like a war. Anyway, there isn't sufficient
        | productive capacity either, so the shock importance is a
        | moot point.
 
        | jsmith99 wrote:
        | During a shock is exactly when price controls are most
        | destructive as they prevent an efficient allocation of
        | the scarce supply to those with the greatest need
        | (assuming willingness to pay is a proxy for that).
 
        | marcosdumay wrote:
        | > assuming willingness to pay is a proxy for that
        | 
        | Hum... Does that assumption ever hold?
        | 
        | Willingness to pay is a proxy for your early earnings and
        | ROI. It correlates very weekly to anything else.
 
        | cryptonector wrote:
        | > together with forced production
        | 
        | a.k.a. slavery
        | 
        | > For obvious reasons (and very good ones), this is
        | something people won't accept unless the shock is really
        | serious, like a war.
        | 
        | No kidding.
        | 
        | But again, it depends on what the goal of the price
        | control is. In a war the goal is not to make life easier
        | for the consumer -- the goal in that case is to get the
        | consumer to stop consuming what the war machine needs for
        | itself.
 
        | marcosdumay wrote:
        | > a.k.a. slavery
        | 
        | On the case of war, conscription. It's disturbingly
        | similar, but it's different. In peace times it's usually
        | on the lines of "keep producing or your business will be
        | closed", what is not that similar as the working people
        | are not the ones facing the ultimatum (if it's ever done
        | to a small company, then yes, it's like slavery).
        | 
        | > In a war the goal is not to make life easier for the
        | consumer -- the goal in that case is to get the consumer
        | to stop consuming what the war machine needs for itself.
        | 
        | Economies are large complicated beasts that move all
        | kinds of products. When governments intervene, they do it
        | in more than one way and with more than one goal.
        | 
        | Price fixing also goes with rationing so that the
        | population stays fed.
 
        | cryptonector wrote:
        | > > a.k.a. slavery
        | 
        | > On the case of war, conscription.
        | 
        | That works for getting labor for the military. It doesn't
        | work for getting producers of things to produce more for
        | less -- unless you put a gun to their heads, they won't
        | do it, not even during war time.
 
        | not2b wrote:
        | Counterexample: WW2, where most of US industrial capacity
        | was repurposed to win the war. Producers got paid, but
        | the amounts they got were limited. They didn't get to
        | just name their price.
 
        | cryptonector wrote:
        | They got paid more than their input costs. None were
        | forced to go bankrupt, and most made a profit.
 
        | s1artibartfast wrote:
        | That depends on the claimed reason.
        | 
        | Price floors can work very well at reducing consumption.
 
        | cryptonector wrote:
        | Price ceilings also have a way of doing that (by limiting
        | production, which therefore limits consumption).
 
        | s1artibartfast wrote:
        | I totally agree, it also works for limiting sales of
        | existing goods.
        | 
        | If you put a price ceiling of $1 on paintings, owners
        | will hold and not sell.
        | 
        | If you want to kill the market for paintings, this would
        | be very effective at doing so.
        | 
        | You can imagine similar impacts of price floors or
        | ceilings for real goods like land and housing.
 
      | jsmith99 wrote:
      | Generally, supporters of price controls see them as a way
      | to reallocate wealth from producers to consumers.
      | Economists point out that manipulating the market price
      | distorts the market by reducing producers' incentive to
      | supply and increasing consumers' incentive to consume,
      | leading to a less efficient outcome.
 
    | bwestergard wrote:
    | Person who has never taken an econ course: "Price controls
    | are great!"
    | 
    | Person who has taken an undergraduate econ course only:
    | "Price controls are terrible!"
    | 
    | Mathematical economists: "Price controls are bad by
    | definition, under highly restrictive assumptions about human
    | welfare."
    | 
    | Economists who study the actual history of price controls:
    | "It varies and depends."
    | 
    | Regarding the last view, Isabella Weber has done some
    | interesting work: https://twitter.com/IsabellaMWeber
 
  | snowwrestler wrote:
  | Energy independence does not mean "only uses domestically
  | produced energy." It means "energy is not a significant lever
  | that other nations have over us."
  | 
  | And that is true for the U.S. today. We could meet our domestic
  | fossil fuel energy needs, but we find economic advantage in
  | trading energy anyway. But when we want to use energy as a tool
  | of policy, we have the option.
  | 
  | This happens in personal finance too. I can pay off my
  | mortgage: I have enough capital to do so. So I don't fear the
  | bank. But with mortgage interest rates so low, I've found
  | comparative advantage by keeping my mortgage and investing my
  | capital elsewhere.
 
    | stjohnswarts wrote:
    | Exactly, trade tends to build trust and good relations (or at
    | least respectful relations) so it's a good Net-Net thing.
    | However, if in stressful times like war the government can
    | pretty easily enact tariffs and even dictates that all
    | domestic production stays here. That is of course for only
    | emergency conditions.
 
      | dmingod666 wrote:
      | Correct, with exception of arms trade, which finds a way to
      | generate conflict to keep the demand going.
 
  | mfer wrote:
  | That isn't all you need to know from the article. That's about
  | the amount that fits into a tweet and lacks a lot more context.
  | 
  | For example, the different types of oil and the way US
  | refineries are setup. That's useful context to know more about
  | the situation.
 
    | jhallenworld wrote:
    | Of course the details are more involved, but the refiners
    | will modify their plants to optimize profits on their own.
    | The time-frame involved could be an issue for sure. What kind
    | of oil is in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? It could
    | possibly help with the time issue.
    | 
    | The tweet-sized post is useful as a counter to the oil
    | company talking points. They like banning Russian imports
    | (eliminating a competitor), but want to link it to expanded
    | drilling and the reinstatement of Keystone XL. Both of these
    | also take time. Yet they say that they can immediately
    | increase production, so I'm not sure the rush for their other
    | requests.
 
  | phendrenad2 wrote:
  | That only makes sense if you're looking at a snapshot in time
  | and try to make sense of it. It's too simplistic to explain
  | this situation if it persists over time. Which, well, it's too
  | early to tell. US domestic oil production ha so only matched
  | import volume for the first time ever in 2020[1]. I expect that
  | if the US keeps production high, eventually the cost of
  | domestic production will reach an equilibrium and the benefit
  | of locality and less transport costs will force the US to use
  | its own oil.
  | 
  | [1] -
  | https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/US_oil_p...
 
    | dlp211 wrote:
    | A lot of oil produced in the US cannot be used in the US.
    | It's too dirty and so gets shipped to countries with less
    | environmental protections in place.
 
  | ggreer wrote:
  | Price controls are almost always a terrible idea. Economists
  | agree on this as much as dentists agree that sugared gum is bad
  | for your teeth. If the price of a good increases, several
  | things happen:
  | 
  | - People reduce their consumption of that good.
  | 
  | - People find substitutes.
  | 
  | - People with stockpiles of the good sell it. If price controls
  | were in effect, they would hoard it instead.
  | 
  | - On a longer time scale, people start producing more of the
  | good. They pay workers overtime to work more shifts, buy/build
  | more equipment, and so on.
  | 
  | Economist Michael Munger wrote an article titled _They Clapped:
  | Can Price-Gouging Laws Prohibit Scarcity?_ which explains the
  | problems with price controls, even in times of disaster.[1]
  | 
  | 1.
  | https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2007/Mungergouging....
 
    | forty wrote:
    | For energy, it's hard for people to either hoard it, find
    | substitute, or producing more of the good. Reducing
    | consumption is possible only to a limit (when you start
    | freezing and getting sick).
 
      | davidw wrote:
      | Short term, it's a problem in the US, but long term, we
      | have a lot of ways to trim some fat. Like those gigantic,
      | deadly trucks that get used to ferry a kid to school or a
      | dad to the office. Or re-legalize things like corner stores
      | so people can walk or bike to do some of what they need on
      | a day to day basis.
 
        | forty wrote:
        | True :) that said upgrading to cleanest cars requires to
        | build new car, which apparently requires some metals
        | Russia has too... What a mess.
        | 
        | Are corner stores really illegal in the US? I could not
        | find anything on the topic from a quick search
 
        | mcbits wrote:
        | It's not as if corner stores are banned, but zoning
        | restrictions have that effect in many places.
 
    | [deleted]
 
    | gowld wrote:
    | Tariffs are not price controls. They are taxes on implicit
    | behaviors (like "price controls" (wage suppression) in other
    | countries).
 
| roflchoppa wrote:
| It's simple, "I drink your milkshake, I drink it up."
 
| oversocialized wrote:
 
| jhoechtl wrote:
| To outsource the devastation of landscape?
 
| jeffreyrogers wrote:
| "Oil" isn't one product. It differs widely in chemical and
| physical properties (viscosity, how much sulfur and arsenic is
| present, etc.) depending on how/where it was produced. Different
| refineries are setup to refine different grades of oil and the
| oil is often blended before shipment to meet the specs the
| refineries expect. It is often cheaper for the US to import the
| right grade of oil than it would be to reconfigure the domestic
| refineries to process all the domestically produced oil.
| 
| This is also why there are several oil "prices" that you will see
| quoted, the most common two being WTI and Brent.
 
  | selectodude wrote:
  | A good example of this is how extremely light, sweet Saharan
  | Blend is $25 more per barrel than Canadian tar sand.
 
  | gorgoiler wrote:
  | Thanks for the insight -- very interesting.
  | 
  | Are there physical properties that make these different oils
  | look different? Would I be able to tell them apart if they were
  | in jars, in front of me?
 
    | opwieurposiu wrote:
    | Yes. The color and the smell vary a lot. Venezuela and Canada
    | sell a heavy crude that is basically roofing tar. Some spots
    | in west Texas and Malaysia produce something close enough to
    | diesel to just put in your truck and go with no refining.
    | 
    | https://kimray.com/training/types-crude-oil-heavy-vs-
    | light-s...
 
  | karaterobot wrote:
  | This is a good summary of the article.
 
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