[HN Gopher] Likely that Swiss will freeze Russian assets
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Likely that Swiss will freeze Russian assets
 
Author : nikhizzle
Score  : 104 points
Date   : 2022-02-27 20:20 UTC (2 hours ago)
 
web link (www.reuters.com)
w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
 
| 55555 wrote:
| Is this unprecedented for Switzerland? Does anyone know? I know
| Switzerland as a bank that accepted Nazi depositors during WWII.
 
| aemreunal wrote:
| https://archive.fo/baj7M
 
| monkeybutton wrote:
| What I find interesting is that the sanctions of Russia and
| support of Ukraine is accelerating faster and faster every day.
| Had the initial plan of decapitating the government and
| installing a puppet who signs a peace agreement with Russia
| worked, I doubt we'd be seeing the same level of support as now.
| Apparently the EU is now giving them jets in addition to all the
| small arms, fuel and anti-tank weapons. With all the economic
| sanctions it seems like they want to collapse the Russian economy
| and instigate regime change from the inside. Putin made a risky
| bet by attacking Ukraine, but the EU collapsing Russia with all
| their nukes still hanging around and hoping the next government
| in charge is more stable is a way more risky bet.
 
  | pixl97 wrote:
  | You mean Putin threatening the west with his nukes a few times
  | a day is not a risk?
 
  | liuliu wrote:
  | It is a risky bet (and unlikely the next one after Putin would
  | be any better). But it is also a deterrance. Anyone who would
  | want to initiate a war in EU needs to think twice (if EU is
  | successful this time) after this.
 
| kaycebasques wrote:
| Regardless of politics I think it's objective to say we're seeing
| a major increase in the weaponization of the global financial
| system. Perhaps the most important second order effect
| (assuming/praying that the war ends very soon) is a faster de-
| dollarization in China.
| 
| A question: does Switzerland have any prior precedent of actions
| like this? I thought they were neutral?
 
  | cjbgkagh wrote:
  | It's like society has progressed very quickly from financially
  | canceling people to financially cancelling countries
 
    | lm28469 wrote:
    | We also progressed from annihilating countries to financially
    | "cancelling" countries. Financial war is still better than
    | total war
    | 
    | You can also ask Cuba what they think about the "new" aspect
    | of financial cancellation, or 1920s Germany
 
  | sva_ wrote:
  | > _A question: does Switzerland have any prior precedent of
  | actions like this? I thought they were neutral?_
  | 
  | They aren't that neutral.
  | 
  | > _Close cooperation has also been established in the area of
  | international sanctions. As of 2006, Switzerland has adopted
  | five EU sanctions that were instituted outside of the United
  | Nations. Those affected the former Republic of Yugoslavia
  | (1998), Myanmar (2000), Zimbabwe (2002), Uzbekistan (2006) and
  | Belarus (2006)._ [0]
  | 
  | There were many more since.
  | 
  | > _de-dollarization in China_
  | 
  | I'm not sure how you mean this (which side), but I think a de-
  | dollarization in China would be terrible. Countries will still
  | rely on their manufacturing etc, so sanctioning them out of
  | SWIFT would probably just weaken SWIFT, since it'd encourage
  | them to have their own system (since it must exist by necessity
  | of the world's dependence on Chinese stuff). These sort of
  | sanctions only work because there's just a small fraction/party
  | being excluded, I think.
  | 
  | [0]
  | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland%E2%80%93European_U...
 
  | outside1234 wrote:
  | There is no neutral. Either you oppose evil or you are
  | implicitly for it.
 
  | mrtksn wrote:
  | It's nothing new, it was always like that. Ask Iran, Cuba or
  | DPRK.
  | 
  | It makes all sense in the world, if you are not a cooperating
  | entity you are cut off from the network and you are free to do
  | your own thing.
  | 
  | Obviously, you can be bullied into things that might not be in
  | your own interest but you are still free to asses the pro's and
  | con's and break of if it's better for you.
 
| sto_hristo wrote:
| I don't believe in these sanctions. Russians are born in misery,
| live in misery, die in misery; don't look up their pensions -
| it's depressing. This has been their life since forever now. They
| are more cattle (in the literal sense) than people at this point.
| The ones that actually matter in Russia might take a cut, but
| nothing effectively.
| 
| The whole approach of the West is wrong. They use reason against
| someone that has never had any reason at all. Can't use poetry to
| communicate with a donkey; the stick is the proper tool.
 
  | cameronh90 wrote:
  | We can't use stick against someone pointing thousands of nukes
  | at you.
 
  | staticautomatic wrote:
  | It's a stick the Russian people will have to wield so long as
  | the Russian government has nukes.
 
  | monkeybutton wrote:
  | This is a terrible take on the good people living there.
  | 
  | This is the type of thing I expect French aristocrats were
  | saying to each other about the peasants in the weeks / months
  | leading up to them getting their heads chopped off:
  | 
  | >born in misery, live in misery, die in misery; don't look up
  | their pensions - it's depressing. This has been their life
  | since forever now. They are more cattle
 
  | [deleted]
 
| gloriana wrote:
| I truly hope the same measures will be taken against US or other
| nation's acts of aggression in the future. e.g. Yemen,
| Afghanistan,Iraq. This is a great precedent to set.
 
  | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
  | You don't think the war in Afghanistan was justified? After
  | 9/11 the US invoked NATO article 5 and allies went to
  | Afghanistan with the US.
 
    | MrRiddle wrote:
    | Isn't it the Saudi who did 9/11?
 
    | dumdumdumdum wrote:
    | Just because you've invoked some article amongst your buddies
    | doesn't make a war justified. The hubris is astounding.
 
  | jl6 wrote:
  | It is dark comedy indeed to see Russia's apologists defend
  | their actions with whataboutism about the US war in Iraq. Guess
  | what, we think that one was illegitimate too. Good work
  | throwing the Ukraine invasion on the pile of unjust wars. Bush
  | and Putin can sing a Nuremberg duet together.
 
  | happytoexplain wrote:
  | How can they distinguish good from bad justifications for
  | aggression? Russia's current actions seem to be at one extreme,
  | while, say, responding to an attack from another government
  | would be on the other extreme (barring extenuating
  | circumstances), while the US usually has an ( _ostensible_ )
  | justification somewhere in the middle.
  | 
  | Afghanistan after 9/11 is a good of example of something that
  | was hard for another western nation to argue against the
  | justification for _starting_ (how it went is another story).
 
    | nsonha wrote:
    | "good aggression"
    | 
    | Be aware that most people cannot read Chinese or Russian, and
    | as such their whole world perspective is fed by an one sided
    | narrative.
    | 
    | I suggest you listen to these[1][2] talks, and Putin's
    | speech[3] on NATO expansion in Munich in 2007. Pozner[1]
    | pointed out that up to 2007, Putin really tried to be friend
    | with the West, including asking to join NATO.
    | 
    | Of course they were "the enemy".
    | 
    | [1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X7Ng75e5gQ
    | 
    | [2]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
    | 
    | [3]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ58Yv6kP44
 
      | bcrosby95 wrote:
      | > including asking to join NATO.
      | 
      | Did he? All I could come up with this:
      | 
      | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-
      | head-s...
      | 
      | According to this person he didn't ask to join, he asked
      | why he wasn't asked to join, and wanted to skip the process
      | that countries-that-don't-matter have to go through.
 
      | happytoexplain wrote:
      | Please try not to misquote me.
      | 
      | I made no reference to good aggression, only justifiable
      | aggression. It's fine to form an argument that no such
      | thing exists, but it's unrealistic to despise the man who
      | returns a punch.
      | 
      | As for Russia's reasonable concerns about the West and the
      | nigh-impossibility of objectively or thoroughly observing
      | foreign points of view - both are true and important, yet
      | neither serve in the least to justify attacking Ukraine's
      | capital.
 
      | prox wrote:
      | That sounds great until you figure out that Putin has a
      | reason for everything. The problem is not so much Putin, or
      | even his viewpoint that Russia doesn't feel safe (I can
      | even see the merit of such a stance) , but the fact that is
      | that he is not accountable to his people.
      | 
      | If he was a normal president and with a functioning
      | democracy, I doubt we would even be at the current
      | situation. I saw the videos of Putin with his advisor (the
      | Spy chief) and that was an exercise in "tell me what I want
      | to hear."
 
      | lm28469 wrote:
      | > Putin's speech[3] on NATO expansion in Munich in 2007
      | 
      | Ukraine would never had joined NATO because it was an
      | active war zone anyways. Putin didn't have to do anything
      | to avoid Ukraine joining NATO.
      | 
      | Listening to his current explanations for the invasion
      | doesn't make him sound like a good guy no matter the
      | language or the perspective.
      | 
      | > Putin really tried to be friend with the West
      | 
      | And relations were relatively good until he decided to
      | invade Ukraine, he just severed every diplomatic bridges
      | and every single chances of progress for the next
      | decades(s).
      | 
      | Putin's not the Devil but he clearly is the aggressor here.
      | Ukraine was a sovereign state with a democratically elected
      | government. You'd be hard pressed to use the "b-bu-but it's
      | both sides" rhetoric here.
 
    | shadowgovt wrote:
    | > How can they distinguish good from bad justifications for
    | aggression?
    | 
    | On a case-by-case basis. As you note, the international
    | community probably wouldn't have reacted against the US
    | regarding Afghanistan (and probably should have regarding
    | Iraq).
 
  | rnk wrote:
  | The us attacking Iraq on false pretenses was clearly unlawful.
  | Afghanistan is different, but would appreciate other views.
  | Tthe country (and bin Laden and others) were clearly behind
  | 9/11. Do you see it as possible for there to be a legal or
  | lawful war between countries when one attacks the other?
  | 
  | Saudia Arabia attacking Houthis and Yemen seems like a clear
  | illegal action. At least the ongoing attacks.
 
| thriftwy wrote:
| The more sanctions there are, the more stuff Putin has to conquer
| to use as bargaining chips to lift those sanctions.
| 
| I just wonder how this is supposed to work in any other way. They
| ensure that the war won't stop because Putin has already faced
| some consequences on the domestic front and how he has to show
| some black ink.
 
  | gerikson wrote:
  | What?
  | 
  | The sanctions can be lifted when Russia withdraws from Ukraine,
  | pays reparations, and is bound by international agreements not
  | to do something like this again.
 
    | wereHamster wrote:
    | At this point, would anyone trust Putin?
 
      | xdennis wrote:
      | That's the thing. I'm not sure how this can end if the
      | oligarchs don't overthrow him.
 
      | gus_massa wrote:
      | > _withdraws from Ukraine_
      | 
      | This can be verified.
      | 
      | > _pays reparations_
      | 
      | This can be verified.
      | 
      | > _is bound by international agreements not to do something
      | like this again_
      | 
      | This is not worth the paper it's written on, but perhaps it
      | may be the only way and reach a peace soon and make
      | everyone pretend to be friends while preparing for the next
      | encounter.
 
      | andy_ppp wrote:
      | This is the issue; where is the end game here for Putin, I
      | can't see a way out for him and the people who surround
      | him.
      | 
      | My psychological analysis of him basically says Putin is
      | the king of the gangsters and he knows as such he needs to
      | keep everyone scared and also demonstrate his power. The
      | way you get to be Putin is to behave in the most extreme
      | way possible when crossed, this pattern is likely to
      | continue one way or another.
      | 
      | We should seriously think about something we can do to give
      | the gangster a way out (appease his ego while he in return
      | withdraws). I know this sounds weak but the other options
      | are really very bad, a disconnected Russia with loads of
      | nukes with a leader with an increasingly extreme
      | disposition that blames the West for all his problems
      | (because Putin has stopped being able to be wrong). Tell me
      | this situation I've outlined is fine because to me it
      | certainly means sabotaging of the West at the least and
      | nuclear war at worst?
      | 
      | That he will be replaced by people in the Kremlin is
      | extremely unlikely in my opinion and who is to say his
      | replacement will be anything less than consistent with the
      | Cold War mentality Putin seems to be spouting.
 
        | [deleted]
 
        | teaearlgraycold wrote:
        | I think one way out is for Putin to get scapegoated by
        | his inner circle. He's only the dictator of Russia as
        | long as they're happy.
 
        | andy_ppp wrote:
        | I think you misunderstand how scared everyone around
        | Putin is of him and the KGB. Especially the oligarchs -
        | you think they give him 50% of their money because they
        | really appreciate how nice and kind Putin is?
 
        | JonChesterfield wrote:
        | I assume the working theory is that the KGB are not
        | delighted with the present circumstances.
 
        | xdennis wrote:
        | My understanding (from reading All the Kremlin's Men), is
        | that Putin's strength is overstated in the West and that
        | he rules with the approval of the oligarchs. If they turn
        | on him, he might just die from an undiagnosed tumor.
 
        | thriftwy wrote:
        | They will turn on him to lose the war and pay through the
        | nose, and then continue to suffer all the consequences in
        | hopes that it ends eventually?
        | 
        | It sounds like a semi-plausible option but a bad plan.
 
        | livueta wrote:
        | On one hand you're right, but on the other - that sort of
        | thing isn't exactly unprecedented. Everyone was terrified
        | of Beria until they weren't. https://en.wikipedia.org/wik
        | i/Lavrentiy_Beria#Arrest,_trial_...
 
        | askonomm wrote:
        | I think his way out should be in an electric chair, like
        | all other terrorists.
 
        | [deleted]
 
  | _ph_ wrote:
  | There is only one thing he needs to do to lift the sanctions,
  | and that is independant from his conquests. That is: leave the
  | Ukraine. Actually, it is the other way around. The less damage
  | is done, the more likely is a quick lift of sanctions.
 
    | thriftwy wrote:
    | There's no legal mechanism which will automatically terminate
    | these sanctions (which, I believe, are placed by different
    | entities in ad hoc basis, as opposed as centralized control)
    | over Putin leaving Ukraine.
    | 
    | If Putin leaves Ukraine, the asset freezing and all the other
    | stuff stays, and _may be_ discussed later.
    | 
    | That's why he won't leave Ukraine even under heavy discomfort
    | of maintaining that presence.
 
      | _ph_ wrote:
      | There is no need for such a mechanism. But the quicker he
      | leaves Ukraine and the less damage he causes, the more
      | likely it is, that the West would relax the sanctions.
      | 
      | (I could easily imagine opening up North Stream 2 quickly,
      | if the money paid for the gas would go to Ukraine until the
      | damages are compensated for)
 
      | newaccount74 wrote:
      | I'm pretty sure most countries would be eager to lift the
      | sanctions rather quickly, since they are losing a lot of
      | business due to the sanctions. If Putin really stopped the
      | invasion, then the sanctions would probably be undone
      | rather quickly.
 
        | Mountain_Skies wrote:
        | If it becomes apparent that Russia is going to stay in
        | Ukraine, business interests will immediately start
        | prodding their governments for special exceptions. There
        | will start off on humanitarian grounds, like medicines
        | and medical devices but we've seen with sanctions on
        | other countries that over time these exceptions grow,
        | often due to financial interests of the well connected.
        | You'll probably never be able to export cheese to Russia
        | but lots of things with dual uses will get approved for
        | export and then used for both uses even though only
        | approved for one use.
 
        | NoPie wrote:
        | I think that Putin has crossed the line and the EU will
        | not give up sanctions easily.
        | 
        | The EU just announced that will provide financing for
        | fighter jets that will be given to Ukraine. The EU
        | president also said that will accept Ukraine in the EU
        | (with due improvements of course). They are really big
        | announcements. Everything has changed during these days.
 
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