[HN Gopher] Gaming the system: How GameStop stock surged
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Gaming the system: How GameStop stock surged
 
Author : alexrustic
Score  : 30 points
Date   : 2021-01-19 18:58 UTC (4 hours ago)
 
web link (arstechnica.com)
w3m dump (arstechnica.com)
 
| 3001 wrote:
| People still don't get this. BLM protests, Capitol riots and now
| GameStop short squeeze. Social Media orchestrated historical
| events works and will continue to in the future. Dismissing or
| betting against them is asking for pain.
 
  | H8crilA wrote:
  | At least in terms of the capital markets we know this isn't
  | really unique to our times. The roaring 20s bubble was in part
  | attributable to the invention of radio and the ticker tape -
  | those things are mass media as well. The scale may be unique,
  | let's take account after it's over :)
 
| syntaxing wrote:
| One of those weird Keysian effect that blows my mind. Everyone is
| just gambling at this rate which is historically terrible for the
| economy in the long term.
 
| temp0826 wrote:
| First guess with only reading the title: they got Battletoads in
| stock?!
 
| georgeecollins wrote:
| Most people don't realize this but GameStop was actually very bad
| for console game developers. Games were often resold, with each
| time no revenue going to the developer. I worked on a popular
| Xbox / PS3 game that was resold like 7-9 times on average. Our
| marketing people figured that GameStop made a lot more money on
| the game than the developer.
| 
| Why is that bad? Big console games started to need to be really
| long, because if you could finish them in a week you would lose a
| ton of sales to retail. That's why you started to see games where
| you had to wander around, grind, play through a level backwards,
| chase achievements. It also caused an emphasis on in game
| purchases (in console games) and online play. It just got a lot
| harder to make a short single player game on console.
| 
| A lot of those problems go away as console games are sold in a
| digital store.
 
  | oh_sigh wrote:
  | Same problem with libraries in my opinion.
 
    | georgeecollins wrote:
    | I am not making a moral judgement, I am saying that the shape
    | of the business affects the quality and the style of the art.
    | 
    | Movie theaters are dying and it seems like they may be
    | replaced by streaming services like Netflix. The truth is,
    | for all streamers pay they probably won't end up paying as
    | much as theaters. And it is not clear any of them currently
    | make money. What if the model that really makes money is
    | YouTube, and a lot of classic expensive movies are going to
    | be replaced with mediocre user generated content that is
    | extremely profitable to stream? That may sound crazy, but
    | think what happened to radio?
    | 
    | I am not seriously arguing that I know what will happen, but
    | you just have to understand that when there is a good
    | buisiness for high quality, you tend to get quality.
 
  | toast0 wrote:
  | > Most people don't realize this but GameStop was actually very
  | bad for console game developers. Games were often resold, with
  | each time no revenue going to the developer. I worked on a
  | popular Xbox / PS3 game that was resold like 7-9 times on
  | average. Our marketing people figured that GameStop made a lot
  | more money on the game than the developer.
  | 
  | I'm more willing to pay $X for a game if I know I can probably
  | sell it for $Y when I don't want it anymore. Digital store
  | games don't have the same value for me, I can't sell the games
  | later, and depending on the system, might have a big hassle
  | transferring them to a different system if/when the one I have
  | goes south.
  | 
  | Book publishers (and authors) don't get anything when I buy
  | from a used bookstore, or borrow a book from a friend either.
  | Neither does a cookware manufacturer get anything if I buy used
  | pots and pans from a thrift shop.
 
    | georgeecollins wrote:
    | Right, but in that model you got a couple dollars, game stop
    | gets like 5x and the developer loses a sale that would be
    | 10-20x.
    | 
    | Books cost tens of thousands of dollars to make and games
    | cost tens of millions. There would be no video game business
    | like the one we know if they were sold the same way as books.
    | Think about it a second-- your PlayStation game is sold on a
    | piece of media that is proprietary. Are your books sold on
    | proprietary paper made specially difficult to copy?
 
      | toast0 wrote:
      | Gamestop certainly wouldn't pay enough for me to sell to
      | them; I'd rather sell or give to a friend, or sell on a
      | marketplace for somewhere between Gamestop's buy and sell
      | prices. Most of the independent used game shops have
      | tighter spreads as well.
      | 
      | This past year, I bought Animal Crossing for the Switch;
      | even though I was pretty sure I wouldn't like it. As
      | expected, I didn't like it, but I had a friend who wanted
      | it, and I could mail it to them. That's a "lost sale" in
      | video game accounting; but if it was tied to my switch, I
      | would have never bought it, and my friend wasn't planning
      | to buy it, but is thrilled to have it.
      | 
      | A book doesn't need to be intentionally made difficult to
      | copy, because in its natural form, it's a lot of effort to
      | copy. There's not enough money to be saved by copying a
      | book to make it worthwhile, except for maybe textbooks.
      | 
      | Arcade manufacturers don't get a cut of the quarters put
      | into a machine either (well, maybe they do for some of the
      | games that now need an online connection to run).
 
  | monksy wrote:
  | > Most people don't realize this but GameStop was actually very
  | bad for console game developers.
  | 
  | And I feel 0 empathy for you. With the digital platform you are
  | stripping away ownership rights from the purchaser. From your
  | statement I feel that you're whining about missing sales that
  | you never could have actually had. Do the 7-9 extra sales
  | translate to 7-9x more sales on digital platforms? No.
 
    | mikestew wrote:
    | I don't read parent as looking for empathy, but rather
    | explaining why "you like grinding? We hope so, because you're
    | going to grind for that next $PIECE_OF_CHEESE lest you finish
    | the game quickly, turn around and resell it."
 
    | pizza234 wrote:
    | Well, if we put things in perspective, there's a paradox
    | here.
    | 
    | If we take the case of a game that is resold a few times on
    | average (not even 7+ times), users are waiving ownership on
    | their own will - they're effectively renting.
    | 
    | In these specific conditions, a hypothetical (digital) game
    | rental would actually serve best both the producer and the
    | consumers.
    | 
    | Note that I don't make a general statement, but I'm referring
    | to this specific case. I'm also not familiar with game
    | rental, but at least until a few years ago, I've seen a
    | physical shop offering it.
 
    | [deleted]
 
    | ABeeSea wrote:
    | This argument is misleading because even if it's not the full
    | 7-9, it is certainly greater than 0. We can argue what the
    | exact percentage is, but saying there was 0 lost sales is
    | just as wrong as saying 7-9 lost sales.
 
      | monksy wrote:
      | It is slightly more, yes. However, you're going to have a
      | hard time convincing me that it's as significant as they
      | claim. The people buying used games don't feel that the
      | game is worth risking the new game price. Also, it gives
      | them more freedom to sell if they didn't like it.
      | 
      | The digital platform is about locking the user in no matter
      | what. No chargebacks, no ownership, etc. Do a charge back
      | Sony bans your console and locks you out of the games you
      | "purchased". End of.
 
        | hobs wrote:
        | The middlemen are just as bad, they'll buy a game for a
        | dollar and turn around and sell it for 20, so I dont
        | really care either way - steam sales are saving me me
        | much more than resales ever paid me back.
 
  | proverbialbunny wrote:
  | Is that why games have gotten shorter? I'm from the NES - PS1
  | era of gaming where games would regularly take 60+ hours to
  | play through.
  | 
  | FFVII is still one of my all time favorites and is a good
  | example of that. I think the first real fast game I played
  | through was Metal Gear Solid. I'd rent, then buy if I liked it
  | back then, and I played through all of Metal Gear Solid in
  | something like 2 or 3 days. It was the first game I enjoyed
  | that I did not buy, because I beat it while renting it.
 
    | robrtsql wrote:
    | It seems to me that you're mostly talking about RPGs. I can't
    | think of any NES-PS1 platforming/shooter/action games that
    | had 60 hours worth of content.
    | 
    | If you look at today's RPGs, they're still _really long_. It
    | is expected that most players who play Persona 5 Royal will
    | take over 100 hours to complete it, which is pretty wild
    | considering it's not a 'grinding game'--players aren't taking
    | that long because they're fighting the same enemies
    | repeatedly hoping for a rare item to appear. There really is
    | 100 hours' worth of contents.
 
    | decafninja wrote:
    | When console games started selling for $59.99 (or more), I
    | found it difficult to justify purchasing most single player
    | games unless they really were jaw-droppingly amazing because
    | the hours to dollars ratio started becoming very low.
    | 
    | Meanwhile a multiplayer game - whether it be a MMORPG or a
    | FPS, would net you countless hours of entertainment.
 
    | [deleted]
 
    | TylerE wrote:
    | We're obviously remembering different NES games.
    | 
    | The NES games I remember could generally be beaten in no more
    | than an hour, if you knew how to actually do it without dying
    | 1000 times.
    | 
    | A good warpless speedrun time on Super Mario Brothers is
    | about 19 minutes.
    | 
    | If warps are allowed, it's under 5.
    | 
    | Legend of Zelda? 27 minutes
    | 
    | Ninja Gaiden? 12 minutes
 
      | proverbialbunny wrote:
      | It's a bit absurd going off of speed runs is a way to
      | accurately identify a game's normal play length.
      | 
      | I think all the games I had were 60+ hours, but I just
      | liked JRPGs more than most genres.
      | 
      | FFVIII was picked not only because it was one of my
      | favorites (FF1 too, SMB3, ...), because the remake today
      | has turned it into 3 games, and even then those 3 games
      | seem long by today's standards.
 
        | pizza234 wrote:
        | To be noted the famous term "Nintendo hard", which
        | indeed... doesn't indicate that Nintendo games would be
        | typically finished quickly (at least, without
        | considerable skill) :-)
        | 
        | Interestingly, based on the Wikipedia page1, the
        | historical difficulty of the Nintendo games is quite
        | nuanced.
        | 
        | 1=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_hard
 
        | TylerE wrote:
        | There's a bit of difference between an NES and as PSX,
        | which came out a full 2 generations and 12 years later.
        | 
        | The NES didn't have any way of saving, for instance.
        | 
        | The two have about much in common as a PSX and an Xbox1.
 
        | asdfasgasdgasdg wrote:
        | Zelda II the Adventure of Link had a save feature. I
        | thought Kirby's dreamland did as well. There were a
        | number of games that had save files although of course
        | many did not include the needed hardware on their carts.
        | 
        | FWIW, the SNES also had no storage, and saves were in the
        | carts. Not until the N64 did Nintendo ship a device with
        | fungible, non-cart storage.
 
        | proverbialbunny wrote:
        | Most NES games had a way of saving, except the earliest
        | NES games.
        | 
        | Most of them had codes you'd type in that was a save
        | point. Many had actual save states on the cartridge.
        | 
        | The earlier games got around not having a code by having
        | a secret early on the game that was revealed later on in
        | the game so you could skip all of the parts you
        | previously played.
 
        | TylerE wrote:
        | I wouldn't consider codes a save. They often loss state.
        | 
        | Basically just an encoding of "start at level X with Y
        | lives". Maybe not even lives.
        | 
        | There were only 54 NES releases with actual, battery
        | based saves, out of 716 officially released and licensed
        | titles (and heaven knows how many bootlegs).
        | 
        | So, "most" is an overbid.
 
        | proverbialbunny wrote:
        | Well, most of the ones I wanted to play at least. ^_^
 
      | dx87 wrote:
      | Yep, they were pretty short, and a lot of them had no save
      | feature so had to be finished in one sitting (unless your
      | parents let you leave it running and just unhook the coax
      | cable so they could watch TV). I remember going to a local
      | game store that would let you try out used games in the
      | store to verify that they worked, and I actually beat a
      | game at the store.
 
  | iNerdier wrote:
  | You say this as if people shouldn't be able to resell
  | information, as packaged in a disc. Does this extend to other
  | things, would you want to prohibit used book sales for example,
  | or cars from being resold?
  | 
  | The ability to resell books didn't lead to only works the size
  | of war and peace being sold...
 
    | georgeecollins wrote:
    | I am not saying anyone should of shouldn't be able to sell
    | information. I am just saying it affected the business.
    | 
    | Oh btw, the next time you read a non-fiction book with a
    | thesis that grabs your attention, but that could probably fit
    | into a long essay.. there is probably a book editor that said
    | it had to be X number of pages because there isn't a business
    | in selling pamphlets.
 
      | gumby wrote:
      | This phenomenon affects almost all business books, which,
      | even for some very good ones, are typically only a few
      | pages long. In an extreme, Crossing the Chasm which
      | explains a powerful insght, is basically one diagram.
 
    | brundolf wrote:
    | This is a bad-faith reading. The GP was just pointing out one
    | non-obvious negative side-effect of having things play out
    | the way they used to.
 
      | anonymousab wrote:
      | The existence of a second-hand market meaning a few less
      | sales for fresh/new/retail product seems very self evident
      | though.
 
        | brundolf wrote:
        | The way it shaped game design is far from obvious, and
        | honestly fascinating
 
    | zdragnar wrote:
    | That is not a charitable reading. OP wasn't discussing
    | _should_ or _ought_ , merely real effects. Your book analogy
    | is flawed, considering that, for the most part, books aren't
    | obsoleted when the new console comes out every three years.
 
    | whynotminot wrote:
    | Not really comparable. For example, the cost to produce a
    | major book release does not scale nearly as quickly as the
    | cost of producing a modern AAA video game.
 
      | jasonpeacock wrote:
      | There is a massive secondary market for cars, and those
      | costs scale much higher than producing a AAA video game,
      | but you don't see car manufacturers blaming used car lots?
      | 
      | Perhaps the game's price should reflect the cost of
      | production, or they should limit the cost of production to
      | what's sustainable by sales.
 
        | kungito wrote:
        | You always need a car and it depreciates in quality with
        | time. You need the game just until you finish it and
        | every replat is of same quality. Of all the possible
        | analogies, you could have made a better choice
 
        | jasonpeacock wrote:
        | What's a better analogy?
 
        | whynotminot wrote:
        | Also an entirely different industry, with entirely
        | different costs, constraints, and production practices.
        | Can we stop using oranges as we talk about apples?
        | 
        | While we're here though, actually, yes, car manufacturers
        | would _love_ it if people would stop buying used cars. In
        | fact, there were whole lawsuits in the past about planned
        | obsolescence, and dealers today often run promotions to
        | get you to turn in your used  "clunker" and buy a new
        | ride.
 
        | georgeecollins wrote:
        | And also, what do you think warranties, dealer repair
        | shops , and certified pre-owned cares are about? They are
        | trying to take a cut of that business? If we could sell
        | our games as a "certified pre-owned" DVD then it would
        | have made a lot more sense to make a short, tight little
        | single player game.
 
  | grillvogel wrote:
  | used game sales (as well as used sales of all other media) have
  | always existed. this was not a cause of any problem for console
  | game developers until around 2005 or so. the mid 2000s switch
  | to the "next gen" platforms caused a lot of shittiness for
  | gaming. mostly from publisher greed due to the potential for
  | mass profits, and the increased cost of developing at higher
  | fidelity. games were originally for a more niche audience, used
  | to focus more on difficulty over "content" in order to get
  | replay value and lifespan. but if you lower the difficulty you
  | can hopefully get more players experiencing all of your
  | "content", and hopefully you can get them to buy some more
  | after they complete the main part of your game.
 
| chad_strategic wrote:
| r/wallstreetbets bets is doing what men and woman in suits and
| pant suits on Wall Street have been doing for years.
 
| TYPE_FASTER wrote:
| I find myself wanting a modern brick and mortar version of
| RadioShack. I buy electronics at Best Buy, Staples (they will
| price match Amazon if the model number matches exactly), and more
| recently GameStop...I guess the closest approximation for what
| I'm looking for these days is a local MicroCenter.
 
  | linuxftw wrote:
  | MicroCenter is great if you live/work near one.
 
| impulser_ wrote:
| Short squeezes. You got to love them.
| 
| Welcome to the biggest casino in the world.
 
| FishbowlPrime wrote:
| Here are a few pointers from a WSB member with a position in $GME
| 
| 1. Short sellers have been running the stock into the ground over
| the past years and have been stupid enough to get to roughly 130%
| short interest as percentage of available float.
| 
| 2. There are no more shares available for them to borrow and sell
| short, WSB has jumped into this trade following Ryan Cohen (your
| dog must know him), buying as many shares as possible, decreasing
| the float even further and pushing the price up.
| 
| 3. Ryan Cohen owns about 13% of the company. He founded chewy.com
| and is an e-commerce wizard who will turn Gamstop around from a
| brick-and-mortar shop to a digital / e-commerce player. He joined
| the board last week together with two other former Chewy execs
| (COO and CMO). FYI GameStop digital sales are 300% yoy. Shorts
| pretend like Chewy never happened, Ryan has nothing to do with
| Gamestop and digital sales are nonexistent.
| 
| 4. This short squeeze is inevitable. There are no other moves
| short sellers can do. They are trapped and check-mate is near. It
| will be similar to VW in 2008 and more aggressive than Overstock
| last year.
 
| tyleo wrote:
| This has also been a big topic on r/wallstreetbets where users
| have organized around squeezing the shorts today. I've been
| following with mild interest.
 
  | Melting_Harps wrote:
  | > This has also been a big topic on r/wallstreetbets where
  | users have organized around squeezing the shorts today. I've
  | been following with mild interest.
  | 
  | Maybe I've been in Bitcoin for too long, but 2.5 to 44 is cause
  | for this much attention? I guess I'm immune to that level of
  | volatility these days.
  | 
  | I mean I get the amount of security's fraud and agencies like
  | the SEC just waiting to justify their inflated salaries and
  | budgets... but with the level of fraud in the stock market and
  | banks _this_ is likely what they would focus on as it they
  | probably don 't have massive lobbiysists in Washington paying
  | for them to shape legislation to match their grift.
  | 
  | I've seen several Gamestops shut down and have going out of
  | business sales for current inventory with long lines, I'm sure
  | that would add to their liquidity situation in the short term
  | if it was done at scale for recovering investments on
  | outdated/old merchanidise. And given that people are less than
  | prudent with their finances and stimulus checks/uncemployment
  | and with so many people with nothing but time on their hands
  | this growth due to lockdowns and massive unemployment isn't
  | actually a realistic turn around after the initial crash in
  | March?
  | 
  | Wallstreetbets is always good for a laugh, and not always a
  | healthy one; the place reminds you why a guy like Trump could
  | be elected and gives actual credence to how the following adage
  | holds true: Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth.
  | 
  | Those guys are like the epitome of of the 'grater fool'
  | business model for the low hanging fruit on the Internet that
  | after spending a few minutes there you just start to feel bad
  | for what the state of Humanity is.
  | 
  | Tendies and cuck jokes aside, it's actually really telling what
  | some people 'with money' are like when they're given a slight
  | amount of Pseudonymity and are in great enough numbers.
  | 
  | Kind of makes Jordan Belfort's stories (Wolf of Wallstreet) all
  | the more poignant.
 
    | ocbyc wrote:
    | Is BTC still in the mid 30k? 2.5->44 is much better return
    | than 3.5k -> 42k. I guess I've been trading GME too long for
    | btc's volatility to phase me.
 
      | Melting_Harps wrote:
      | Yes, but I've been in it since 2011. Your humble brag
      | doesn't apply to me.
      | 
      | My point being that this doesn't warrant the attention its
      | getting when you see the bigger picture of outright fraud,
      | and agencies should look into bank fraud and money
      | laundering and stock manipulation of things like large
      | pharmaceutical corps that have made billions from a litany
      | of scams along the years, Moderna administration in CA
      | already had to be halted due to patient complications. How
      | many Corps have made out like bandits from bailouts and
      | crushing the competition with perpetual lock downs and
      | doing shady trade deals with politicians?
      | 
      | I'm so over this, that the paper wealth pales in comparison
      | to the asset inflation we're all seeing with no real
      | benefit other than more billionaire wealth accumulation.
      | 
      | PS: I don't trade, I'm accumulating in order to exit this
      | insane system.
 
        | echelon wrote:
        | > Your humble brag doesn't apply to me.
        | 
        | That wasn't a humble brag, it was a counter to your less
        | than charitable characterization of GME stock behavior.
        | 
        | If anything, you're bragging.
 
  | x3n0ph3n3 wrote:
  | The Ars article is woefully deficient in not even mentioning
  | r/wallstreetbets.
 
    | gamegoblin wrote:
    | Another missing piece of information is that Michael Burry,
    | famous for being the first one to short the housing market
    | before the crash, also took a long position on GME relatively
    | early.
    | 
    | The announcement of his long position single-handedly caused
    | the price to raise a non-trivial amount. IIRC his firm
    | currently owns around 4% of GameStop.
 
| toast0 wrote:
| If you're a publicly traded company, and the stock price jumps
| like this; how long does it take to sell more shares and try to
| capture some of the craziness?
| 
| Hertz was able to sell $29 million of stock during bankruptcy
| before the SEC asked them to stop. As Gamestop isn't bankrupt, it
| seems like fair game to make an offering while the price is high.
 
  | 3001 wrote:
  | Then they bail out the shorts who have been driving done the
  | price for ages. GameStop also file some form for a shelf
  | offering for 100M with the SEC recently. Note the 100M is
  | dollar amount, so you want to sell when you know the stock is
  | at peak, you will get the 100M but less stock unit.
 
    | toast0 wrote:
    | Everybody hates shorts, but if you can sell for $40ish today
    | vs $5 6 months ago and $20 last week, and you need/would like
    | some cash, and you have a shelf offering ready to go, why not
    | sell today?
    | 
    | If the price goes up to $80ish next week, then maybe issue
    | some more shares to sell at that price too.
 
      | 3001 wrote:
      | Continuously issuing shares leads to
      | dilution(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_dilution).
      | This has a ramifications for board members like Ryan Cohen
      | who wants to change the company trajectory and also tend to
      | have a downward effect on the share price.
 
    | Melting_Harps wrote:
    | > Then they bail out the shorts who have been driving done
    | the price for ages. GameStop also file some form for a shelf
    | offering for 100M with the SEC recently. Note the 100M is
    | dollar amount, so you want to sell when you know the stock is
    | at peak, you will get the 100M but less stock unit.
    | 
    | Can I be honest: its exactly this kind of BS that puts me off
    | so much about the legacy Market systems; these systems create
    | fake paper wealth that is intertwined with so many convoluted
    | jargon, and twists and turns to give things the veneer of it
    | being a _Capitalist_ undertaking but all it really is central
    | bank enabled gambling frenzy that requires bail outs when it
    | all blows up.
    | 
    | How is this desirable, let alone sustainable, to those of you
    | that I sincerely believe can see the obvious grift unfolding
    | before your eyes for what it is?
 
| bpodgursky wrote:
| There's really no way to understand GameStop stock without
| looking at reddit: r/wallstreetbets.
| 
| It's a meme stock, and a huuuuuuge amount of money is being
| dumped into it for... basically entertainment value. Roulette.
 
  | 3001 wrote:
  | And I pretty sure most these are tech money. Amazed at the
  | amount of enthusiasm at team blind.
 
| randomopining wrote:
| GameStop is useless lol. They literally sell stuff that's
| already/going to be completely digitally sold in a decade.
 
  | TheHypnotist wrote:
  | Fundamentals and normal financial logic should be entirely
  | disregarded when discussing this stock. This pure WSB.
 
    | randomopining wrote:
    | Yeah so it's confirmed to be basically 99% a pump and dump
    | meme stock?
 
      | FishbowlPrime wrote:
      | No it's not. WSB is orchestrating a short squeeze. The aim
      | is to make a transfer of wealth from shorts like Melvin
      | Capital to WSB. This whole charade is due to the stupidity
      | of short sellers who shorted more Gamestop shares than
      | there are publicly traded. Check out the Overstock story
      | from last year or VW from 2008. This will be exactly like
      | that.
 
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