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Will Pakistan Strike Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan?

by Akmal Dawi

   As Islamabad increasingly voices concern about the alleged sheltering
   of a Pakistani insurgent group in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, there is
   speculation whether the Pakistani military might strike targets in the
   neighboring country and how that would impact the region's fragile
   security.

   Observers say the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021
   appears to have revived the armed insurgent group Tehrik-i-Taliban
   Pakistan -- known as the TTP -- which has sought the establishment of
   an Islamist government in Pakistan like the Afghan Taliban, but has
   been weakened by intense Pakistani military operations over the past
   decade. Afghanistan has faced accusations it has been harboring the
   TTP.

   After months of inconclusive talks facilitated by the Afghan Taliban in
   2022, the government of [1]Pakistan and TTP appear headed back to war
   between each other.

   This past week, top Pakistani military and civilian leaders convened to
   discuss options for countering TTP threats, which they now claim
   emanate from Afghanistan.

   "No country will be allowed to provide sanctuaries and facilitation to
   terrorists and Pakistan reserves all rights in that respect to
   safeguard her people," said a statement issued by the government of
   Pakistan after the meeting on Monday.

   Pakistan has the right to self-defense against terrorism, Ned Price,
   spokesman for the U.S. Department of State, said on Tuesday, without
   mentioning whether the right included Pakistani military action inside
   Afghanistan.

   The TTP poses significant security threats in Pakistan but the group is
   not a nationwide insurgency capable of bringing down the Pakistani
   government, experts say.

   "The latest developments have given Pakistan little choice but to
   launch military operations," Michael Kugelman, South Asia Institute
   director at the Wilson Center, told VOA.

   "If the threat continues to mount and attacks keep increasing, foreign
   investors could be scared away. And that's the last thing Pakistan
   needs at a moment of acute economic stress."

   The Taliban deny harboring the TTP and groups that pose security
   threats to other countries, but the United Nations says several foreign
   terrorist groups are present in Afghanistan.

   Friendless Taliban

   Despite holding firm control over all of Afghanistan for more than a
   year, the Taliban have failed to earn recognition from any country and
   are widely condemned for their undemocratic governance, particularly
   for violating women's rights.

   Domestically, the Taliban have refused to form an inclusive government
   and have faced relentless attacks from Islamic State and other groups
   that oppose the Taliban.

   However, for a Pakistani military that has waged several extensive
   military operations against the TTP in Pakistan, tackling the group in
   Afghanistan would be more challenging and even counterproductive,
   experts say.

   "The Pakistani military is not designed nor optimized for fighting the
   likes of TTP in the tribal areas of the country. I suspect, as they
   have done in the past, that its leaders will do everything they can to
   avoid another large military conflagration of that kind," Jonathan
   Schroden, a military operations analyst with the research organization
   CNA, told VOA.

   Airstrikes by Pakistani forces inside Afghanistan will carry
   "significant risks, particularly that of accidental civilian
   casualties, and there are the obvious sovereignty issues, which could
   lead to open conflict with the Afghan Taliban," said Madiha Afzal, a
   fellow at the Brookings Institution.

   Pakistani military actions, meanwhile, could embolden Islamic State and
   other militant groups in Afghanistan, creating a favorable environment
   for international terrorism and criminality.

   Sanctioned and isolated, the Taliban in 1996-2001 sheltered al-Qaida
   leaders in Afghanistan. In 2023, the group is even more isolated and at
   odds with the rest of the world.

   "I do think the U.S. and Pakistan are facing a similar challenge in
   Afghanistan in that they both confront terrorist threats there that the
   Taliban have been unwilling or unable to curb. I'm not sure that
   Washington is hoping Islamabad will launch cross-border operations -
   more instability on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border doesn't serve U.S.
   interests," said Kugelman.

   For the Afghan Taliban, making an enemy of the strong Pakistani
   military would be devastating.

   "They can't afford to completely alienate Pakistan," said Schroden,
   adding that the Taliban are already hurting themselves, domestically
   and internationally, through their policy choices.

   A ploy?

   Speaking at a U.N. Security Council meeting in December, Subrahmanyam
   Jaishankar, the Indian foreign minister, called Pakistan "the epicenter
   of terrorism." For years, India has accused its neighbor of harboring
   and promoting armed groups that launch attacks inside India -- charges
   Pakistan rejects.

   For some, Pakistan's demonstrated frustration with the Afghan Taliban
   is a staged ploy aimed at whitewashing Pakistan's alleged longstanding
   support for violent Islamic extremism in the region.

   "The endgame for Pakistan is to turn the Afghan Pashtun belt into their
   new tribal area," Hamdullah Mohib, national security advisor to the
   former Afghan government, tweeted this week.

   "This strategy would also most likely gain support from other regional
   powers, who all would like the freedom to target their enemies inside
   Afghanistan without global objections."

   The Taliban waged a successful insurgency in Afghanistan largely
   because of the hideouts and support they received in Pakistan, but a
   weak Taliban government in Afghanistan, isolated from the rest of the
   world, might be more desirable and easier for Pakistan to handle.

   "Pakistan's current situation and insecurity are, to a larger extent,
   the results of Pakistan's own policies," [2]Hamid Karzai, former Afghan
   president, tweeted on Tuesday.

   As the first democratically elected president of Afghanistan in 2004,
   Karzai tried for more than a decade to persuade Pakistani officials to
   quit support for the Taliban.

   Now as a former president living under Taliban rule, Karzai offers the
   same advice to Pakistan: "Deeply reconsider and change your policy of
   the past several decades, avoid [using] threats and violence, and adopt
   a path for civilized and noble relations with Afghanistan for the
   consolidation of peace and stability in the region."

References

   1. https://www.rferl.org/a/pakistan-taliban-ttp-cease-fire-attacks-analysis/32202135.html
   2. https://twitter.com/KarzaiH/status/1610272268357189632?s=20&t=HmhupcMzltnUQWrkmDpO4A