Originally posted by the Voice of America.
Voice of America content is produced by the Voice of America,
a United States federal government-sponsored entity, and is in
the public domain.


Trump Is Indicted - Now What?

by Patsy Widakuswara

   White House --

   The Manhattan district attorney's indictment of Donald Trump on 34
   felony charges and the prospect of more charges to come have injected
   more uncertainty into the November 2024 race for the White House.

   Trump, who has declared himself a candidate for next year's Republican
   presidential nomination, was formally charged this week with falsifying
   New York business records to conceal his role in paying hush money to
   an adult film actress before the 2016 election. He is also facing
   potential charges in at least three other cases.

   Never before in American history have criminal charges been brought
   against a former president, much less one who is attempting another
   run. According to the most [1]recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, even with the
   indictment Trump is leading the Republican primary field.

   Should Trump become the nominee, he will likely face President Joe
   Biden. Biden won over Trump in 2020.

   In the short term, Trump may be benefiting from the controversy. [2]One
   of the first polls done after the indictment showed Trump surging to
   his largest-ever lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 57% to 31%
   among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. As recently as
   February, DeSantis was narrowly ahead of Trump by 45% to 41%.

   Trump is also leveraging his grievance over the case to rake in funds,
   $12 million in just one week since the indictment's announcement,
   according to his campaign.

   Watch related video by Mike O'Sullivan:

   However, pollsters say the indictment is unlikely to sway the crucial
   independent voters that Trump will need in the general election.

   "All the polling basically shows [is] a very divided America. You have
   one America that is very much in favor of the indictment, believes that
   Trump has been lawless, has not followed the rules," said Clifford
   Young, president for U.S. public affairs at Ipsos. "On the flip side,
   there's another America, red America, Republican America, that thinks
   it's completely, utterly, politically motivated."

   Impact on Republican primary

   Since the indictment, Trump has widened his lead over other Republican
   contenders. According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 48% of self-described
   Republicans said they wanted Trump to be their party's presidential
   nominee, up from 44% in a March 14-20 poll.

   DeSantis, Trump's closest rival, was backed by 19%, down from 30% last
   month. Other likely rivals, including former Vice President Mike Pence
   and Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and former
   ambassador to the United Nations, polled in the single digits.

   Aside from former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, those eyeing the
   Republican nomination have been rushing to defend Trump from the
   indictment.

   "They can't be critical of the former president because they clearly
   want his supporters to go with them in the event that Donald Trump
   can't or will not run," political consultant Julie Roginsky told VOA.

   Roginsky noted the risk for Republican challengers who voice support
   while silently hoping Trump will bow out.

   "Then essentially they're anointing him as the next nominee, if they
   don't all get together and try to take him down based on these issues,"
   she said.

   Should Trump become bogged down by more legal woes, including those
   related to allegations of trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat
   in the state of Georgia, and mishandling classified documents at his
   Florida home after leaving office, more Republican candidates would
   likely run, said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia
   Center for Politics.

   But if he survives them, his opponents will push for a smaller field,
   Sabato told VOA. "It's the only way you could stop him, if you
   consolidate support behind one or two candidates."

   Trump vs. Biden

   If Trump becomes the Republican nominee, that's good news for Biden's
   reelection prospects because it would galvanize the Democratic base and
   most independent voters, Sabato said.

   "He's going to generate those votes because they can't stand the
   alternative."

   Even if he is not the nominee, Trump's influence over the Republican
   base will force other potential nominees to embrace him, possibly
   making it easier for Biden to beat him or her, Sabato added.

   Trump could also split the Republican vote by refusing to support the
   nominee. In a February radio interview, Trump said that if he were not
   the party's pick, his support "would have to depend on who the nominee
   was."

   Biden has not officially announced that he is running for reelection
   and will likely do so at a time when he does not have to share the
   political spotlight with Trump, whom he beat in 2020.

   "It's not like anybody's gearing up, anybody of consequence is gearing
   up to run against him. So, he can take his time and doesn't have to
   start incurring any expenses of an official campaign at the moment,"
   Roginsky said.

   What if Trump wins?

   Trump can be found guilty and still win the election, in which case the
   country would have a convicted felon as its commander in chief.

   "There's nothing in the Constitution that precludes someone who has
   been convicted of a crime from being elected president," said Richard
   Pierce, a law professor at George Washington University.

   There are only three constitutional requirements for the presidency: he
   or she must be at least 35 years of age, be a natural-born citizen and
   have lived in the U.S. for at least 14 years.

   Experts say if convicted on the New York charges, Trump is unlikely to
   spend any time behind bars as judges rarely sentence first-time
   offenders to jail for falsifying business records.

   However, other criminal investigations, including the one on his role
   in the efforts to overturn the 2020 election result, may lead to more
   serious charges and potential imprisonment.

   That would be a "truly unprecedented situation," Pierce told VOA.

   "I don't know how one could be effective as president of the United
   States while being in a jail cell," he said. "But there is nothing in
   the Constitution that would keep somebody from being president of the
   United States and being incarcerated at the same time."

   But a conviction could bar Trump from voting for himself. [3]Florida,
   where he is registered to vote, is one of 11 states with the most
   restrictive laws regarding voting while incarcerated.

References

   1. https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/reutersipsos-survey-trump-indictment-and-2024-republican-primary
   2. https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/4zul6phwv0/Yahoo_20230331_Toplines_Crosstabs_Joined.pdf
   3. https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights