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Afghan Military Could Collapse Without US Support, Top US Commander Warns

Jeff Seldin

   The commander of U.S. special operations forces says he fears the
   current government in Afghanistan could fall and that its security
   forces will be overrun by the Taliban should the United States decide
   to pull all of its troops from the country.

   U.S. Special Operations Command's Gen. Richard Clarke told U.S.
   lawmakers Thursday that while the Afghan military has worked to improve
   its capabilities, it cannot sustain itself without the current level of
   American support.

   "While progress has been made ... the capabilities that the U.S.
   provides for the Afghans to be able to combat the Taliban and other
   threats that reside in Afghanistan are critical to their success,"
   Clarke told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
   Special Operations Command Gen. Richard Clarke speaks at a hearing on
   Capitol Hill, March 25, 2021.

   The warning from Clarke, who said he traveled to Afghanistan recently
   to meet with the head of the Afghan military's new joint special
   operations command, comes as the U.S. and NATO allies face a May 1
   deadline to pull all troops out of the country -- part of a deal last
   year between the Taliban and the administration of then-U.S. President
   Donald Trump.

   Current U.S. President Joe Biden and other top security and defense
   officials have been reviewing the deal but say no decision has been
   made on whether to comply and withdraw some 2,500 U.S. forces. He told
   reporters Thursday at his first press conference that it's unlikely the
   U.S. will be out by the deadline.

   U.S. troop withdrawal

   Should the U.S. decide to pull out, some 7,000 NATO forces would also
   leave.

   Some leading U.S. lawmakers, though, have said they believe the Biden
   administration will try to find a way to at least extend the deadline
   for the troop withdrawal.

   "There's a general feeling that May 1 is too soon," House Armed Service
   Committee Chair Adam Smith told a Foreign Policy virtual discussion
   Wednesday.
   FILE - A U.S. soldier keeps watch at an Afghan National Army base in
   Logar province, Afghanistan, Aug. 5, 2018.

   Smith said he was basing his comments on discussions in recent weeks
   with top Biden administration officials, including National Security
   Adviser Jake Sullivan and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

   "You cannot pull out 10,000-plus troops in any sort of reasonable way
   in six weeks," he said, calling it a matter of logistics.

   "Running for the exits pell-mell by May 1 is dangerous," he said. "I
   don't want to leave a bunch of high-grade military equipment behind for
   whoever grabs either."

   Increased violence

   Aside from logistics, U.S. and NATO officials have raised concerns
   about what they say is the Taliban's failure to live up to the deal.

   They argue the Taliban have shown no indication they are cutting ties
   with terror groups like al-Qaida. And while Taliban forces have
   refrained from launching attacks on U.S. troops, the level of violence
   in Afghanistan has spiked.

   "It's clear that the Taliban have not upheld what they said they would
   do and reduce the violence," Clarke told U.S. lawmakers, saying he has
   seen them do the opposite.
   FILE - Members of the Taliban delegation arrive for an Afghan peace
   conference in Moscow, Russia, March 18, 2021.

   "It is clear they took a deliberate approach and increased their
   violence since the peace accords were signed," the U.S. commander said.

   Despite growing misgivings from U.S. officials about the approaching
   deadline for withdrawal, Taliban officials are insisting Washington
   honor the deal as is.

   "It is clearly stated in the agreement that America will withdraw all
   its troops (from Afghanistan) by May 1, and we again ask them to
   strictly adhere to the mutually agreed deadline," Taliban spokesman
   Zabihullah Mujahid told VOA earlier this week.

   "In case Americans do not meet their obligations and abandon the
   agreement, the Islamic Emirate (Taliban) will be forced to defend their
   nation and consider all other options to force foreign troops out of
   the country," Mujahid said, without elaborating.

   Fears about the fate of Afghanistan should U.S. forces leave are not
   new. Earlier this month, a U.S. government watchdog warned that U.S.
   and international efforts to build a strong and stable Afghanistan "may
   turn out to be a bridge too far."

   "It may not be an overstatement that if foreign assistance is withdrawn
   and peace negotiations fail, Taliban forces could be at the gates of
   Kabul in short order," said John Sopko, the Special Inspector General
   for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR).

   Sopko also cautioned that it is not just the withdrawal of U.S. and
   NATO forces that could cripple the Afghan government. He said the
   departure of approximately 18,000 contractors and trainers, also
   required under the U.S.-Taliban deal, would be even more devastating.

   "The Afghan government relies heavily on these foreign contractors and
   trainers to function," Sopko said. "No Afghan air frame can be
   sustained as combat effective for more than a few months in the absence
   of contractor support."

   VOA's Ayaz Gul in Islamabad contributed to this report.