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Biden's Climate Pledge: Not Easy, Not Impossible

Steve Baragona

   Cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in half is doable but hard,
   experts say, and some of the biggest barriers are political, not
   technical.

   President Joe Biden on Thursday [1]committed the United States to
   reducing emissions of planet-warming carbon dioxide and other gases by
   50% to 52% by 2030 compared with 2005 levels.

   Experts and advocates had been calling for a pledge of this size, both
   to rein in emissions from the world's largest economy and
   second-largest polluter and to encourage other countries to step up
   their efforts.

   But to get there, "a lot would have to change very quickly," said
   energy expert Philip Rossetti at R Street, a public policy research
   center.
   FILE - A wind turbine is pictured, Jan. 13, 2021, near Spearville, Kan.

   U.S. emissions are declining, but far too slowly to reach Biden's
   target. They would have to fall on a scale that has happened only three
   times since 2005, Rossetti noted, and not for good reasons -- during
   the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2008-09 financial crisis and during an
   exceptionally mild winter in 2012.

   The Biden administration has proposed broad areas where it sees
   opportunities for cuts, without giving much detail. It says there are
   multiple pathways to get there.

   But each path faces opposition, experts note. Legislation may struggle
   to pass in a closely divided Congress. And a conservative Supreme Court
   may take a dim view of expanding regulations.

   Several research groups have mapped out ways that the United States
   could cut emissions in half.

   "We have the policies to do it, and we have the technologies to do it,"
   said Robbie Orvis, director of energy policy design at Energy
   Innovation, a policy research group.

   For starters, the amount of solar and wind power installed each year
   needs to be three to four times as much as last year's record-setting
   pace.

   "It is a big leap to do that, but the technology exists," Orvis said.

   And the technology is cheaper than ever, and getting cheaper.

   The [2]cost of wind power has fallen 71% since 2009, according to
   financial advisory firm Lazard. [3]Solar power is 90% cheaper.
   Batteries are 80% cheaper than in 2013, according to BloombergNEF.

   "We did not predict they would drop this fast 10 years ago," said
   Nathan Hultman, director of the University of Maryland Center for
   Global Sustainability, who helped craft the Obama administration's
   climate goals.

   In many places, it is now cheaper to build new wind installations than
   it is to continue running existing coal-fired power plants, the most
   polluting source of power. Natural gas is cleaner and cheaper than
   coal, but renewables are now competitive with gas power, too.

   Economics alone will not get the United States to a 50% cut by 2030,
   however. Orvis said the country will reach only 12% under current
   policies.

   Several groups are backing a federal clean electricity standard that
   would require utilities to produce 80% of their power from renewable
   sources, nuclear power or fossil fuel plants that capture their carbon
   dioxide emissions. Twenty-nine states have similar policies.
   FILE - New Lexus automobiles are shown for sale after California
   Governor Gavin Newsom announced the state would ban the sale of new
   gasoline-powered passenger cars and trucks starting in 2035.

   The next biggest cut would come from transportation, where the largest
   proportion of U.S. carbon emissions come from. A combination of
   incentives and regulations would take old, inefficient vehicles off the
   road and help increase sales of zero-emissions vehicles.

   Smaller shares would come from cutting industrial emissions by
   switching to electrification, where possible, or emerging sources such
   as hydrogen or ammonia, though these technologies are still in
   development.

   The best path to any of these policies would be through legislation
   passed by Congress, experts note. Many of them are included in Biden's
   $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal.

   But Republicans are firmly opposed to it.
   FILE - Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., turns to an aide
   in Washington, March 7, 2021.

   "Their so-called 'infrastructure' plan would aim at completely
   'de-carbonizing' our electric grid, which means hurting our coal and
   natural gas industries and putting good-paying American jobs into the
   shredder," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said in a statement.

   Some policies could be implemented through regulations, which do not
   require Congress. But it is a riskier approach.

   "I'm honestly pretty pessimistic on that because the scope of
   regulatory authority Biden has is limited," R Street's Rossetti said.
   "The courts are going to challenge any sort of proposal that goes
   outside of those bounds."

   Plus, regulations can change with administrations, and climate
   regulations have whiplashed through the past several presidencies. The
   Trump administration reversed President Barack Obama's climate
   regulations, and Biden is reversing Trump's reversals.

   Many of the policies that would get the United States to a 50% cut have
   strong backing from the private sector.
   FILE - An Apple logo hangs above the entrance to the Apple Store on
   Fifth Avenue in the Manhattan borough of New York City, July 21, 2015.

   More than [4]400 companies signed a letter to Biden ahead of this
   week's climate summit asking for a 50% cut.The list includes tech
   giants Apple and Microsoft, mega-retailers Walmart and Target,
   automakers Ford and General Motors, and other household names.

   The electric utility industry's main lobby group supports a clean
   energy standard.

   "A well-designed CES makes some sense for us," Emily Fisher, senior
   vice president of clean energy at the Edison Electric Institute, told
   Reuters.

   But she cautioned that the industry still needs breakthroughs, in
   long-term storage and carbon capture, for example, to meet the target.

   "We need those technologies, and they don't exist," Fisher said.

   Getting to 50% "is certainly going to be challenging," Orvis said, "but
   I'm cautiously optimistic."

References

   1. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/
   2. https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-and-levelized-cost-of-storage-2020/
   3. https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh
   4. https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/ambitious-u-s-2030-ndc/