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India's Concerns over Myanmar Drive Policy, Analysts Say

Anjana Pasricha

   NEW DELHI - Analysts say India's concern that isolating Myanmar's
   military, which staged the country's February 1 coup, will drive it
   closer to China, and fears of instability in a country with a long
   common border are driving a desire by New Delhi to engage the regime to
   resolve the crisis there.

   The United States and other Western democracies are imposing economic
   sanctions to put pressure on Myanmar's military, which has mounted a
   brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests, resulting in hundreds of
   deaths since it ousted de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

   Critics have questioned why India, the world's largest democracy, has
   not denounced the junta more strongly, but analysts say New Delhi
   believes sanctions may not be the way to defuse the crisis.

   "From India's perspective, keeping a channel of communication open with
   Myanmar's military is very important," said Harsh Pant, head of the
   Strategic Studies Program at the Observer Research Foundation in New
   Delhi.

   "We don't want a situation where China is the only country talking to
   them and see another country in India's neighborhood go into the
   Chinese orbit," he said.

   India's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, K.
   Nagaraj Naidu, told a U.N. Security Council meeting on Myanmar Friday
   that "lack of engagement will only create a vacuum which will be
   counterproductive."

   He said that "we therefore support all initiatives to engage with
   Myanmar and resolve issues peacefully without further bloodshed," even
   as he condemned the use of violence.

   After its initial cautious response, India has taken a stronger stance
   in recent days as the crisis in Myanmar has mounted, calling for an end
   to the violence and urging the military to release the hundreds of
   political prisoners now being held in Myanmar.

   "We stand for the restoration of democracy in Myanmar," Arindam Bagchi,
   the External Affairs Ministry spokesman, told reporters in New Delhi
   this month.

   "India is ready to play a balanced and constructive role to resolve the
   crisis," he said.

   India's more emphatic response came days after the presence of its
   military attaché at an Armed Forces Day parade in Myanmar raised
   questions about New Delhi's attendance and drew condemnation from
   Myanmar's pro-democracy Civil Disobedience Movement. The March 27
   celebrations coincided with a savage crackdown that saw at least 100
   protesters killed.
   Family members cry in front of a man after he was shot dead during a
   crackdown on an anti-coup protesters by security forces in Yangon,
   Myanmar, March 27, 2021.

   Calling India "one of the greatest democracies in the world," the
   movement asked on Twitter "why do you shake hands with the generals
   whose hands are soaked with our blood."

   India was the only major democracy among the eight countries that sent
   representatives to the celebration. The others were China, Pakistan,
   Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand and Russia.

   "I don't think India's presence was meant to send a message of support
   or validate the coup," Gautam Mukhopadhaya, India's former ambassador
   to Myanmar, said.

   "I find it difficult to believe that India would lean on the side of
   the military in the current context when it is very clearly against its
   own people," he said.

   He said, though, that India and Southeast Asia countries have taken a
   more nuanced approach to the situation in Myanmar because of worries
   about large-scale instability in a neighboring country and would prefer
   to seek a negotiated solution.

   "We have security stakes different from powers in the West. My
   expectation is that India will use whatever equities it has with the
   military to try and talk the generals back," he said.

   India has built ties with the Myanmar government during the past decade
   as it has sought to offset China's influence in the country that
   provides it with an overland route to the Indian Ocean, a strategic
   waterway where Beijing has steadily increased its footprint.

   Myanmar's army has cooperated with New Delhi in destroying hideouts of
   insurgents who operated in India's northeastern states and sought
   sanctuary across the border in Myanmar. New Delhi has also increased
   defense and economic ties with the country in recent years.
   An Indian national flag flies next to an immigration check post on the
   India-Myanmar border in Zokhawthar village in Champhai district of
   India's northeastern state of Mizoram, March 16, 2021.

   There have been missteps in India's approach in the wake of the recent
   coup, say analysts. As refugees from Myanmar escaping the junta's harsh
   crackdown fled into India, the federal government asked local
   authorities to stop their influx and deport those who had crossed over.

   However, northeastern states have called for a "humanitarian" response
   to the refugees, with whom they share ethnic ties, and are providing
   shelter to an estimated 700 who have crossed over.
   Myanmar nationals including those who said they are police and firemen
   and recently fled to India, flash the three-finger salute at an
   undisclosed location in India's northeastern state of Mizoram, near the
   border, March 15, 2021.

   Mukhopadhaya, who was India's ambassador between 2013 and 2016, said he
   believes Myanmar's military has made a "serious miscalculation" and
   will find it difficult to suppress the growing civilian protests. He
   said he is optimistic that India will make "pro-people" choices as the
   situation evolves in the neighboring country in the coming weeks.

   However, most agree that isolating Myanmar is not a choice for New
   Delhi in a changing geopolitical situation where many now view China as
   a threat.

   "If the objective of the United States in particular and Western powers
   in general is to manage China's rise, then you have to look at
   countries through a more complex prism," Pant said. "Wherever the West
   has isolated countries, China has filled the void."