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20 Years After Withdrawal, Israel, Hezbollah Brace for War

Associated Press

   KFAR CHOUBA, LEBANON - Twenty years after Hezbollah guerrillas pushed
   Israel's last troops from southern Lebanon, both sides are gearing up
   for a possible war that neither seems to want.
   Israeli troops are striking Hezbollah targets in neighboring Syria and
   drilling for what could be an invasion of Lebanon. The militant
   Hezbollah group is beefing up its own forces and threatening to invade
   Israel if provoked. The bitter enemies routinely exchange warnings and
   threats.
   "We are preparing seriously for the next war. We're not taking any
   shortcuts because we understand we have to be extremely strong to
   defeat the enemy," said Col. Israel Friedler, an Israeli commander who
   has been overseeing a weeks-long exercise simulating war with Hezbollah
   at a base in northern Israel.
   Hezbollah emerged as a ragtag guerrilla group in the 1980s, funded by
   Iran to battle Israeli troops occupying southern Lebanon. A protracted
   guerrilla war, characterized by roadside bombs and sniper attacks,
   eventually forced Israel to withdraw in May 2000. With the exception of
   an inconclusive, monthlong war in 2006, the volatile frontier has
   largely remained calm.
   Since then, Hezbollah has evolved into the most powerful military and
   political entity in Lebanon. The party and its allies dominate
   Lebanon's parliament and are the main power behind Prime Minister
   Hassan Diab's government.
   "Domestically, Hezbollah has emerged to become the preponderant force
   in Lebanon," said Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the
   American University of Beirut. But regionally, he said, "the position
   of Hezbollah is precarious" due to Israeli pressure, domestic turmoil
   and problems for its Iranian benefactors.
   The group can ill afford another massive clash with Israel. The
   Lebanese economy is in shambles, around half the population is now
   estimated to live in poverty -- including in Hezbollah strongholds --
   and the group's finances are suffering because of U.S. sanctions
   imposed on it and Iran. The group also suffered heavy losses in the
   Syrian civil war, losing some 2,000 fighters while battling alongside
   the forces of Syria's President Bashar Assad. Once seen as a liberation
   movement, Hezbollah is now seen by many in Lebanon and the region as an
   Iranian pawn.
   Qassim Qassir, an expert on Hezbollah, says the group has no interest
   in going to war but has been preparing for battle for a long time. "The
   battle will not be a battle of missiles only," he said, a reference
   that Hezbollah might try to invade parts of northern Israel.
   In a region filled with adversaries, Israel considers Hezbollah to be
   its toughest and most immediate threat.
   During the 2006 war, the group launched some 4,000 rockets into Israel,
   most of them unguided projectiles with limited ranges. Today, Israeli
   officials say Hezbollah possesses some 130,000 rockets and missiles
   capable of striking virtually anywhere in Israel. They say it has
   sophisticated anti-tank missiles, night-vision equipment and cyber
   warfare capabilities.
   Hezbollah operates along the border, in violation of the U.N.
   cease-fire that ended the 2006 war. It also has established a presence
   in southern Syria, near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, providing
   an additional front in a future war. Most critically, Israel believes
   Hezbollah is trying to develop and build precision-guided missiles.
   Sheikh Ali Daamoush, a top Hezbollah official, claimed the Israelis are
   afraid of Hezbollah's missile program. "The Israelis should be worried
   and scared because the resistance now has the will, intention,
   capabilities and force to make Israel face a great defeat in any coming
   confrontation," he said.
   That confrontation may come sooner than anticipated. Israel has
   acknowledged carrying out scores of airstrikes in neighboring Syria in
   recent years, most of them believed to have been aimed at stopping
   Iranian arms shipments or missile technology for Hezbollah.
   Syria has accused Israel of carrying out at least seven airstrikes in
   the past two months alone, believed to have targeted Iranian and proxy
   interests. Israeli warplanes and reconnaissance drones have been
   violating Lebanese airspace on almost daily basis in recent weeks.
   Israeli officials say that neither Iran's troubles -- including the
   coronavirus crisis, plunging oil prices and U.S. sanctions -- nor
   Lebanon's domestic problems have changed Hezbollah's behavior. They
   point to a recent attempt by Hezbollah to fly a drone into Israeli
   airspace and an incident last month in which alleged Hezbollah
   operatives damaged a fence along the Israeli-Lebanese frontier.
   The Lebanese border town of Kfar Chouba, overseen by three Israeli
   positions, was quiet Wednesday, three days after Israeli troops shot
   and wounded a Syrian shepherd who had crossed into Israeli-held
   territory. The area is a disputed enclave along the frontier between
   Israel, Syria and Lebanon, where tensions often play out.
   In recent weeks, tens of thousands of Israeli troops have been
   participating in a massive exercise at the Elyakim military base. On a
   recent day, four Israeli tanks rumbled up to the edge of a ridge and
   fired powerful 120-millimeter shells streaking across the valley,
   scoring direct hits on targets several kilometers (miles) away. Ground
   troops maneuvered through a mock Lebanese village. Air force, navy and
   cyber units joined the drill.
   Friedler, the Israeli commander, said if there is another war, Israel
   will have no choice but to cross the border to halt Hezbollah fire. He
   said battling an enemy entrenched in civilian areas is like "fighting
   with handcuffs on," but insisted that his troops are ready.
   "It won't be easy. But without a doubt it will be much harder for them.
   They don't have the means to stop us," Friedler said.
   Hezbollah has also vowed to cross into Israel in any future war. In
   late 2018, Israel uncovered and later destroyed what it said was a
   network of cross-border tunnels.
   Despite these tensions, residents along Israel's northern border say
   that life has greatly improved since Israel withdrew from its
   self-declared "security zone" two decades ago.
   Nisim Shtern, a farmer in the northern Israeli border town of Kerem Ben
   Zimar, spent time in southern Lebanon as a soldier in the mid-1980s and
   remembers times when Katyusha rockets rained down on the area.
   Shtern, who grows pomegranates and wine grapes in his orchards, says
   day-to-day life is good, but that some residents still get jittery.
   Even so, he said Israel made the right decision to withdraw. He said he
   trusts the army to take quick and decisive action whenever needed.
   "We need to strike them hard and get out," he said. "If there's a
   problem, take care of it with maximum force."