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AP Fact Check: Trump's Perfect China 'Ban,' Death Toll Myths

Associated Press

   WASHINGTON - Truth often takes a beating when President Donald Trump
   talks about his administration's response to the coronavirus and the
   subsequent death toll in the U.S. This past week was no exception.

   Over the weekend, the president claimed strong marks for himself for
   the handling of the pandemic after imposing a "very early ban of people
   from China." It actually wasn't a total ban and had plenty of gaps in
   containment. One of the government's top health officials has described
   the China restrictions as too little, too late.

   Trump also asserted that the United States is on par with Germany in
   keeping down COVID-19 deaths, which is not the case in mortality
   reports. And he's brushed off projections that deaths in his country
   will double from earlier forecasts, misrepresenting how the numbers
   were calculated.

   These distortions emerged over the past week alongside his relentless
   bragging about the U.S. testing system, which failed in the crucial
   early weeks and remains globally subpar.

   A look at Trump's remarks, also covering his former national security
   adviser Michael Flynn:

   Travel restrictions

   TRUMP: "We are getting great marks for the handling of the CoronaVirus
   pandemic, especially the very early BAN of people from China, the
   infectious source, entering the USA." -- tweet Sunday.

   THE FACTS: This is one of Trump's favorite exaggerations, asserting
   that travel restrictions he imposed on China in late January had
   averted much of the virus' entry into the U.S.

   In fact, Trump didn't "ban" all the people infected with coronavirus
   from entering the U.S. from China. There were many gaps in containment
   and initial delays in testing, leading to the U.S. rising to No. 1
   globally in the number of people infected by COVID-19.

   His order temporarily barred entry by foreign nationals who had
   traveled in China within the previous 14 days, with exceptions for the
   immediate family of U.S. citizens and permanent residents as well as
   American citizens.

   In addition, Dr. Anne Schuchat, the No. 2 official at the U.S. Centers
   for Disease Control and Prevention, told The Associated Press earlier
   this month the federal government was slow to understand how much
   coronavirus was spreading from Europe, which helped drive the
   acceleration of outbreaks across the U.S. in late February. Trump
   didn't announce travel restrictions for many European countries until
   mid-March.

   "The extensive travel from Europe, once Europe was having outbreaks,
   really accelerated our importations and the rapid spread," she told the
   AP. "I think the timing of our travel alerts should have been earlier."

   TRUMP: "Compare that to the Obama/Sleepy Joe disaster known as H1N1
   Swine Flu. Poor marks ... didn't have a clue!" -- tweet Sunday.

   THE FACTS: His suggestion that former President Barack Obama and his
   vice president, Joe Biden, were oblivious and did nothing during the
   2009 H1N1 pandemic, initially called "swine flu," is wrong.

   Then, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's flu surveillance
   network actually sounded the alarm, spotting two children in California
   who were the first diagnosed cases of the new flu strain. About two
   weeks later, the Obama administration declared a public health
   emergency and CDC began releasing anti-flu drugs from the national
   stockpile to help hospitals get ready. In contrast, Trump declared a
   state of emergency in early March, seven weeks after the first U.S.
   case of COVID-19 was announced.

   Pandemic death counts

   TRUMP: "Now, Germany -- we're very close to Germany. We have a very
   good relationship with Germany. Germany has done very good. They have a
   very low mortality rate like we do. We have a low mortality rate also."
   -- remarks Thursday in meeting with Gov. Greg Abbott, R-Texas.

   THE FACTS: The U.S. is not in Germany's league in this regard.

   The U.S. is experiencing far more reported COVID-19 deaths as a
   proportion of its population than is Germany. The U.S. has reported
   COVID-19 deaths at a rate of 234 per 1 million people. For Germany,
   that rate is 90 deaths per million. The U.S. surpasses many other
   countries in reported deaths per million, too, and it leads the world
   in deaths from the virus overall.

   Because countries track COVID-19 deaths somewhat differently, exact
   conclusions can't be reached when comparing nations.

   The mortality rate is a different measure from deaths per million. It
   refers to what percentage of people who get the disease die from it.

   The answer is as yet unknown, and there are several reasons for that.

   First, the count changes every day as new infections and deaths are
   recorded. More important, every country is testing differently. Knowing
   the real denominator, the true number of people who become infected, is
   key to determining what portion of them die.

   Some countries, the U.S. among them, have had trouble making enough
   tests available. A test shortage means the sickest get tested first.
   Even with a good supply of tests, someone who's otherwise healthy and
   has mild symptoms may not be tested and thus go uncounted.

   TRUMP: "And, frankly, if you took New York out of the equation, we
   would really have a low mortality rate." -- remarks with Abbott.

   THE FACTS: New York, being part of the U.S., cannot be subtracted from
   it to make the numbers look better.

   It's true that New York has experienced far more COVID-19 deaths than
   has any other state.

   TRUMP, asked about a White House-endorsed model showing 134,000 deaths
   from the coronavirus by August, doubling its previous prediction:
   "Those projections are with no mitigation. We are doing mitigation." --
   remarks to reporters Tuesday.

   THE FACTS: That's incorrect. The projections last Monday by the
   Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation do take into account social
   distancing and other mitigation, which have begun to be loosened in
   several states at Trump's urging. On Sunday, the institute revised its
   estimates upward again, to 137,000.

   The institute, based at the University of Washington, said both sets of
   estimates reflect the recent reopening of many states and relaxing of
   social distancing restrictions. Its initial estimates assumed longer
   stay at home orders lasting through May.

   "What's driving the change is, simply put, the rise in mobility," Dr.
   Christopher Murray, the institute's director, told CBS' "Face the
   Nation" on Sunday. "We're seeing in some states, you know, a 20
   percentage point increase in just 10 days in mobility. And that will
   translate into more human contact, more transmission."

   More than 30 states have taken steps this month to ease stay-at-home
   orders.

   "Our model now assumes that mandates that are currently still in place
   and have not been scheduled to be relaxed will stay in place through at
   least August 4," the institute said on its website. Officials on the
   White House coronavirus task force have praised the institute's work
   and cited its research in their briefings.

   Flynn

   TRUMP, on the Justice Department's move to drop the criminal case
   against former national security adviser Michael Flynn: "He was
   targeted by the Obama administration and he was targeted in order to
   try and take down a president, and what they've done is a disgrace." --
   remarks Thursday.

   THE FACTS: He's suggesting partisan Democratic politics were completely
   behind Flynn's investigation that isn't so.

   It is true that the investigation into ties between Russia and the
   Trump campaign, and into Russia in particular, began during the Obama
   administration. But it continued well into Trump's own administration.
   The investigation into Flynn was taken over by a special counsel who
   was appointed by Rod Rosenstein, Trump's own deputy attorney general.

   The internal FBI correspondence that has emerged in the last two weeks
   also doesn't reveal agents saying that the goal of the investigation
   was to "take down a president."

   Virus testing

   TRUMP: "In any event, we have great testing capacity, and have
   performed 6.5 million tests, which is more than every country in the
   world, combined!" -- tweet on May 4.

   THE FACTS: The claim that the U.S. has performed tests "more than every
   country in the world, combined" was not remotely true when he said it
   and it's no closer to the truth now.

   The U.S. has tested far fewer than all other countries combined. It
   also lags dozens of countries in testing its population proportionally.

   Together, just three countries -- Russia, Germany and Italy -- had
   reported more tests than the U.S. when Trump tweeted.

   That remains the case. As of late Friday, the U.S. had reported
   conducting more than 8.3 million tests since the pandemic began. That
   compared with more than 18.7 million tests by the other countries in
   the top 10 of the testing count.

   The U.S. was followed by Russia, Germany, Italy, Spain, Britain, India,
   France, Turkey and United Arab Emirates.

   Children; Covid-19

   TRUMP: "With young children and children, we'd like to see the schools
   open early next season and on time. It's incredible how the -- it's
   very unique how the children aren't affected, but people that have
   problems and older people are -- can be very badly hurt, injured, or
   die from this problem." -- remarks with Native American leaders Tuesday
   in Phoenix.

   TRUMP: "You see how well children seem to do. It's incredible. We
   realize how strong children are, right?" -- remarks with nurses
   Wednesday.

   TRUMP: "It affects older people. It infects -- if you have any problem
   -- heart, diabetes, even a little weak heart, a little diabetes, a
   little -- this thing is vicious, and it can take you out, and it can
   take you out very strongly. But children do very well." -- remarks May
   3 on Fox News.

   THE FACTS: His suggestion that children are in the clear is false. To
   say they "do very well" with the disease is more accurate, based on
   what is known so far. His implication that the risk is limited to the
   old and sick is incorrect.

   It's true kids get sick less often than do adults and tend to be less
   ill when they do get sick. But his statements overlook severe COVID-19
   illnesses and at least several deaths of children in the U.S. And they
   gloss over the fact that kids can spread disease without showing
   symptoms themselves.

   The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention studied the pandemic's
   effect on different ages in the U.S. early on and reviewed preliminary
   research in China, where the coronavirus started. It said social
   distancing is important for children, too, for their own safety and
   that of others.

   "Whereas most COVID-19 cases in children are not severe, serious
   COVID-19 illness resulting in hospitalization still occurs in this age
   group," the CDC study says.

   At the beginning of April, the CDC analyzed nearly 150,000
   laboratory-confirmed U.S. COVID-19 cases and found nearly 2,600
   children with the disease. Since then the number of confirmed cases
   overall in the U.S. has rocketed, making the April findings very
   preliminary.

   The pediatric cases that were found at the time, though relatively few,
   spanned all ages of childhood. The median age of children sick with
   COVID-19 was 11. More than 5%, perhaps as many as 20%, required
   hospitalization.

   People 18 to 64 were by far the largest age group sickened by the virus
   -- 76% of the confirmed cases studied by the CDC. COVID-19 was not and
   is not limited to the oldest people, even if they are the most
   vulnerable age group.