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'Odd' Quirk Raises Delegate Stakes in Tuesday's Elections

Associated Press

   WASHINGTON - A quirk in how delegates are won under Democratic Party
   rules is raising the stakes for Tuesday's elections, allowing a
   candidate to make up ground in the race quickly-- or fall further
   behind.
   Five states-- Michigan, Washington, Missouri, Mississippi and Idaho--
   hold Democratic primaries on Tuesday, while North Dakota has a caucus.
   All told, there are 352 delegates up for grabs. A candidate needs 1,991
   delegates to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
   That makes for only the fourth-largest delegate night on the primary
   calendar. But the intricate arithmetic of how delegates are won under
   Democrats' rules makes it possible for a candidate to reap a bigger
   haul of delegates with a smaller margin of victory on this Tuesday than
   on any other night.
   For Bernie Sanders, it's an opportunity to catch up to Joe Biden, who
   enters the day ahead by 96 delegates. For Biden, it's a chance to open
   up what could become an insurmountable lead.
   How this happens may seem complicated, but it's nothing more than some
   basic math and an ``odd'' quirk of how delegates are won under party
   rules.
   Most delegates awarded Tuesday-- 65%-- will be won based on how the
   candidates perform in individual congressional districts. Think of each
   district as holding a bucket of delegates. There are also two buckets
   of delegates in each state awarded based on the overall statewide vote.
   On Tuesday, that makes for 51 buckets of delegates across the six
   states. A candidate needs to win at least 15% of the overall vote in a
   bucket to be "viable"-- or to qualify to win delegates. (That 15%
   threshold means it's all but assured that only Biden and Sanders win
   any delegates from this point forward.)
   First, the math. Party rules say each viable candidate wins a
   proportion of the delegates in each bucket based on his share of the
   votes cast for the viable candidates in that bucket.
   Second, the quirk. Buckets that have an odd number of delegates are
   impossible to split evenly, meaning either Sanders or Biden is
   guaranteed to win at least one more than the other.
   Say, for example, there are seven delegates in a bucket, and Sanders
   gets 51% and Biden gets 49% of the viable votes. In delegates, that's
   3.57 to 3.43-- a difference of just 0.14 delegates. But thanks to
   rounding, Sanders gets four and Biden gets three.
   Nearly two-thirds of the 352 delegates at stake on Tuesday are in
   buckets with an odd number of delegates-- more than on any other night
   with more than one primary.
   Democratic National Committee member Elaine Kamarck, who was Walter
   Mondale's delegate hunter during his campaign for president in 1984,
   said it's "odd" how the odd-even districts work out, but it all adds up
   to whoever does best on Tuesday waking up Wednesday with "a comfortable
   haul."
   But wait: It gets better-- or worse, if you're the candidate who ends
   up behind. After the primaries on March 17, most of the delegates to be
   won come from buckets with an even number of delegates.
   Why does that matter? It means Biden or Sanders will need to win far
   more than 50% of the vote in a bucket to win more delegates than his
   rival. From a bucket holding six delegates, a candidate needs more than
   58.3% to win four delegates. In a district with eight delegates, the
   leader needs 56.3% to get five.
   Put another way, a candidate could keep coming in second in the overall
   vote, but so long as he keeps the race relatively close, he'll still
   end up with the same number of delegates in an ``even'' bucket as the
   candidate who finishes first.
   And that means whoever does best on Tuesday, and next week when
   Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Illinois get their turn, could end up with a
   delegate lead that can't be beat.
   "It's just funny how the numbers just work out," Kamarck said Monday,
   and that means Tuesday night is "a big deal."