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The Delegate Game: Math, Timing and how to Win a Nomination

Associated Press

   WASHINGTON - Winning a party's presidential nomination is like the
   children's board game Chutes and Ladders spiced up with momentum, math
   and money.

   In the delegate game, it costs millions to win a nomination and the
   stakes are huge, but the strategy is the same: Get to the finish line
   aided by ladders that give you a shortcut to victory while avoiding
   slipping down slides that put victory farther out of reach.

   The race for the Democratic nomination starts out like a sporting event
   and finishes more like an accountant's ledger.

   Here are the game's basic instructions:

   THE DELEGATES

   The only way to win the nomination is to gather a majority of delegates
   to the party's national convention this summer. For the Democrats, this
   year's only true contested primary, there will be 3,979 pledged
   delegates voting on the first ballot. There are also 770
   superdelegates, though new rules will probably keep them from voting on
   the first ballot. More on superdelegates later.

   The Democratic National Committee says the magic number to win the
   nomination on the first ballot is 1991 delegates.

   These delegates will be pledged to the candidates who win them in
   primaries or caucuses. There is no rule that requires these delegates
   to vote for their candidate. However, they sign a pledge to reflect the
   will of the voters, and the campaigns can approve or reject them, so
   their loyalty has never been an issue, at least in the past.

   About two-thirds of the pledged delegates will be awarded based on
   election results in individual congressional districts. The rest will
   be awarded based on statewide results. Every state awards delegates
   proportionally. Democrats banned winner-take-all primaries years ago.

   But there's a complication.

   THE THRESHOLD

   This is the biggest pitfall, especially for marginal candidates. At the
   same time, it boosts top-tier hopefuls.

   Winning delegates isn't simple math. For Democrats, delegates get
   awarded proportionally to the share of the vote. But the catch is the
   minimum threshold.

   A candidate needs to receive at least 15% of the vote just to get a
   delegate, and there's no rounding up. A candidate with 14.99% gets zero
   delegates.

   The threshold applies on both the district and state levels.

   The minimum threshold eliminates candidates who can't win in November,
   according to the Brookings Institution's Elaine Kamarck, a longtime
   member of the Democratic National Committee who wrote the book "Primary
   Politics."

   The threshold gives an extra boost to candidates who make the cut. Once
   the initial votes are tallied, all the votes for candidates who didn't
   make the cut are removed, and the percentages are recalculated.

   For example, if Candidate A wins 20 votes out of 100 cast, Candidate A
   gets 20% of the vote. However, if 30 votes went to candidates who
   didn't meet the threshold, those 30 votes are removed, and now
   Candidate A has 29% of the remaining votes.

   That's enough math for now. Let's turn to the calendar.

   TIMING

   The race starts on the first Monday in February with the Iowa caucuses
   and then moves to the New Hampshire primary, the Nevada caucuses and
   the South Carolina primary. These are February's early four.

   February isn't really about delegates. Those four states award less
   than 4% of the delegates to the convention but are crucial because this
   is when momentum matters more than math.

   Those first four contests are "more of a campaign for publicity,
   looking like a winner," said University of Arizona political scientist
   Barbara Norrander. "The dynamic changes with Super Tuesday."

   March 3 -- Super Tuesday -- is the monster date on the primary calendar
   with 34% of pledged delegates at stake in 14 states, American Samoa and
   a group of expats called Democrats Abroad. Nearly half of Super Tuesday
   delegates come from south of the Mason-Dixon line.

   Michael Bloomberg is skipping the February contests, spending big and
   jumping right to Super Tuesday's delegate bonanza. Rudy Giuliani tried
   a similar tactic, with less money, in the 2008 Republican primary. He
   failed, as have others.

   "After Super Tuesday, the only thing that matters is delegates," said
   Josh Darr, a Louisiana State University political scientist.

   Then the votes come in a big crunch. Voters award an additional 1,100
   delegates on March 10 and March 17. By the end of St. Patrick's Day,
   more than 61% of the delegates will have been won.

   By that time, a clear front-runner will have probably emerged, and it
   will be difficult for anyone else to catch up. Remember, Democrats
   award delegates proportionally, so a front-runner with a lead of 100 or
   200 delegates would have to completely flop in the late primaries for
   anyone else to catch.

   This is how Barack Obama held off Hillary Clinton in 2008. Clinton won
   some big states late in the primary calendar, but she gained only a
   handful of delegates because she had to split them with Obama.

   At this stage of the process, the big question will be whether the
   front-runner is winning a majority of the delegates -- enough to clinch
   the nomination and avoid a contested convention.

   St. Patrick's Day also is the first date in which President Donald
   Trump can accumulate enough delegates to clinch the Republican
   nomination.

   SUPERDELEGATES

   One of the biggest changes this year is that superdelegates --
   senators, members of Congress, governors, party officials -- are
   staying on the sidelines, at least at first. Bernie Sanders pushed
   through this change after losing the nomination to Clinton in 2016.
   Sanders and other advocates saw superdelegates as undemocratic, even
   though they never changed the outcome of the primaries.

   "We haven't really seen a nomination contest where the Democratic Party
   voters prefer one candidate, and the superdelegates tip it to someone
   else," University of Denver political scientist Seth Masket said.

   Under the new rules, superdelegates won't be able to vote on the first
   ballot unless the leader has such a big lead in the delegate count that
   their votes cannot change the outcome.

   However, if no candidate wins a majority of the delegates on the first
   ballot -- something that hasn't happened since the 1950s -- the
   superdelegates would play a huge role in deciding the nominee.