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Johnson Faces First Electoral Test in Welsh Vote

Reuters

   LONDON - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson could see his working
   majority in parliament reduced to one when voters in a rural Welsh
   parliamentary seat go to the polls Thursday in his first electoral test
   as leader.

   The pro-European Union Liberal Democrats are the bookmakers' favorites
   to win the vote in Brecon and Radnorshire, triggered when Conservative
   lawmaker Chris Davies was ousted by a petition of constituents after
   being convicted of falsifying expenses.

   Brecon is a region where sheep outnumber people many times over and
   where the prospect of steep EU tariffs being slapped on its Welsh lamb
   exports in a no-deal Brexit have prompted widespread concern among
   farmers.

   Wafer-thin majority

   Johnson's government already relies on the support of a small Northern
   Irish party for its wafer-thin majority, with just a handful of rebels
   in his own Conservatives needed to lose key votes, as his predecessor
   Theresa May repeatedly found.

   May stepped down after her Brexit deal with the EU was rejected three
   times by parliament.

   Johnson has said he plans to renegotiate that deal but that Britain
   will leave the bloc Oct. 31 with or without an agreement, potentially
   setting himself up for a fight with parliament, which has pledged to
   try to block a no-deal exit.

   The Liberal Democrats held the seat of Brecon from 1997 until 2015 when
   it was won by Davies. In the 2017 snap election he held the seat with a
   majority of just more than 8,000 votes and is running again for the
   Conservatives Thursday.

   Splitting the pro-Brexit vote

   Wales, and the Brecon area, voted to leave the EU at the 2016 Brexit
   referendum but the pro-Brexit vote is likely to be split between the
   Conservatives and the Brexit Party, which won the United Kingdom's
   European Parliament election in May by riding a wave of anger over the
   failure to deliver Brexit.

   In contrast, in a bid to boost the Liberal Democrats' chances by
   concentrating the support of 'Remain' voters, other pro-EU parties
   including the Greens and Plaid Cymru are not standing in the election.

   Liberal Democrat candidate Jane Dodds has also sought to focus her
   campaign on local issues.

   "I believe we deserve better from our politicians and the Westminster
   government. I'll be a strong voice for everyone who feels let down by
   those in power," Dodds, who is also the Liberal Democrats' leader in
   Wales, said on her website.

   The Conservatives, who have seen their national poll ratings jump since
   Johnson took over in what has been dubbed a Boris bounce, will be
   hoping for a last-minute boost from their new leader, who visited the
   area Tuesday.

   But the National Farmers' Union (NFU) in Wales has warned Johnson of
   the potential consequences for lamb producers of leaving the EU without
   a deal.

   "The prime minister must prioritize the protection of this core market
   through securing continued, unfettered access," its president John
   Davies said. "The EU is our nearest and largest export market and any
   interruption to this trade will have catastrophic impacts for Welsh
   farming."

   The result is expected in the early hours of Friday morning.