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Hopes Dashed as Ethiopia-Eritrea Peace Process Stagnates

Agence France-Presse

   ZALAMBESSA , ETHIOPIA - In the heady days after longtime foes Ethiopia
   and Eritrea signed a peace deal a year ago, Teklit Amare's Peace and
   Love Cafe near the newly-opened border overflowed with customers.

   Now, he paces among empty tables, wondering aloud how to keep his
   business open as optimism fades, with borders again sealed and hopes of
   progress dashed.

   The Zalambessa border crossing closed at the end of last year without
   explanation as leaders have remained silent. Others crossings followed
   suit.

   "When they shut the border so soon after opening it, that was the
   saddest moment," said Teklit, a former teacher who now struggles to pay
   his rent.

   The feeling is widely shared in Zalambessa, a town where battered
   buildings highlight the damage wrought by the Ethiopia-Eritrea border
   war, which erupted in 1998 and left tens of thousands dead.

   During the stalemate that followed the end of active hostilities in
   2000, Zalambessa was all but abandoned, deprived of infrastructure and
   other investments.

   "After the opening it was very obvious that everybody was happy. They
   want to trade, to have these connections," said Hadush Desta,
   Zalambessa's top municipal official.

   "But now, because of no reason, it's closed. People are emotional about
   it. They say, 'Why is this happening to us?'"

   'Devil in the details'

   The border opening was just one breakthrough in the whip-fast
   rapprochement between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean
   President Isaias Afwerki that began just over a year ago.

   Following Abiy's initial overtures, the two sides embarked on a rapid
   mending of ties that caught even close observers by surprise,
   re-opening embassies, resuming flights and taking meetings across the
   region.

   But enthusiasm for the deal has given way to frustration -- and not
   just near the border.

   On other goals too -- from inking new trade deals to granting Ethiopia
   access to Eritrea's ports -- high initial hopes have gone unmet.

   The lack of communication from both governments makes it difficult to
   pinpoint why the peace process appears stuck.

   Abiy paid a two-day visit to Asmara last week and pledged to "further
   enhance" the peace process, but no detail was given of their
   discussions.

   "As they say, the devil is in the details. We are not so clear what is
   going on," said Abebe Aynete, an Addis Ababa-based senior researcher
   with the Ethiopian Foreign Relations and Strategic Studies think tank.

   Many analysts and diplomats suspect Eritrea is guilty of foot-dragging.

   Opening up to Ethiopia would force Isaias to surrender a measure of
   control, something his critics say he is unlikely to do.

   "I personally believe that as long as the current group in Asmara stays
   in power, I don't think the border will open and the two countries will
   not proceed to normal relations," said Mehari Tesfamichael, chairperson
   of the opposition Eritrean Bright Future Movement.

   Isaias' notoriously iron-fisted government has long cited the standoff
   with Ethiopia in justifying harsh policies like compulsory national
   service, which forces citizens into specific jobs at low pay and bans
   them from traveling abroad.

   Last October, the UN refugee agency noted a seven-fold increase in
   refugees fleeing Eritrea after the borders opened, with around 10,000
   refugees registered in one month.

   The peace deal "provided some hope that restrictions on national
   service would be lifted, but so far there has been little change" in
   Eritrea, said Human Rights Watch.

   Abiy's woes

   Ethiopia's domestic politics could also be part of the problem.

   Abiy's ambitious reform agenda has run into roadblocks, a fact
   underscored by the assassination last month of five government and
   military officials.

   The changing landscape has inflamed tensions between Abiy and the
   Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the party that dominates the
   northern Tigray region and was the strongest political force in the
   country before Abiy came to power.

   Tigray's administration of Ethiopian border areas means the TPLF should
   be a major player in normalizing ties with Eritrea, provided it plays
   along.

   "Solving issues related to the border ideally needs the full
   cooperation of Tigray and the TPLF. That isn't what we have right now,"
   said William Davison, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group
   think tank.

   "We have significant rifts between TPLF and its ruling coalition
   partners and also disputes between the Tigray region and the federal
   government in Addis."

   'A better place'

   However observers say it's important not to lose sight of the progress
   that's been made.

   "Up front we have to acknowledge that we're in a much better place than
   we were before the rapprochement, when the possibility of
   state-on-state conflict was quite high," said Michael Woldemariam, an
   expert on the Horn of Africa at Boston University.

   Even at the border, the news is not all bad.

   Though the Zalambessa crossing closed completely in December, soldiers
   on both sides have since loosened restrictions. Ethiopian traders say
   that on some days they cross into Eritrea unimpeded, and on others they
   can often get through using unofficial crossings.

   Back at the Peace and Love Cafe, owner Teklit said he is not giving up
   just yet.

   He said he is encouraged by the fact that ties between the two
   countries are still officially warm.

   "There are rumors that the Eritrean government is fixing the road," he
   said. "This gives us hope that they might one day reopen again."