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What Trump and Putin Hope to Achieve at Helsinki Summit

by Associated Press

   HELSINKI --

   The outcome of the first summit between the unpredictable first-term
   American president and Russia's steely-eyed longtime leader is
   anybody's guess. With no set agenda, the summit could veer between
   spectacle and substance. As Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin head into
   Monday's meeting in Helsinki, here's a look at what each president may
   be hoping to achieve:

   What Trump wants

   What Trump wants from Russia has long been one of the great mysteries
   of his presidency.

   The president will go into the summit followed by whispers about his
   ties to Moscow, questions that have grown only more urgent since the
   Justice Department last week indicted 12 Russian military intelligence
   officers accused of interfering in the 2016 election in an effort to
   help Trump.

   And while most summits featuring an American president are carefully
   scripted affairs designed to produce a tangible result, Trump will go
   face-to-face with Putin having done scant preparation, possessing no
   clear agenda and saddled with a track record that, despite his
   protests, suggests he may not sharply challenge his Russian counterpart
   over election meddling.

   "I think we go into that meeting not looking for so much," Trump told
   reporters last week.

   Trump has strenuously insisted that improved relations with Russia
   would benefit the United States. But much of the appeal of the Finland
   meeting is simply to have the summit itself and to bolster ties between
   Washington and Moscow and between Putin and Trump, who places his
   personal rapport with foreign leaders near the heart of his foreign
   policy.

   "The fact that we're having a summit at this level, at this time in
   history, is a deliverable in itself," said Jon Huntsman, the U.S.
   ambassador to Russia. "What is important here is that we start a
   discussion."

   Trump has been drawn to the spectacle of the summit and has expressed
   an eagerness to recreate in Helsinki the media show of last month's
   Singapore summit when he met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

   Even as many NATO leaders made supportive noises this week, the
   Helsinki summit has raised fears in many global capitals that Trump
   will pull back from traditional Western alliances, allowing Putin to
   expand his sphere of influence.

   Back home, too, there is wariness on Capitol Hill, with a number of
   Democrats and a handful of Republicans urging Trump to cancel the
   summit in the wake of the explosive indictments.

   But Trump has vowed that he can handle Putin, whom he has taken to
   referring to as a "competitor" rather than an adversary.

   And Trump in recent days has outlined some of the items he'd like to
   discuss, including Ukraine. Though the president has said he was "not
   happy" about Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, he puts the
   blame on his predecessor and says he will continue relations with Putin
   even if Moscow refuses to return the peninsula.

   Trump also said he and Putin would discuss the ongoing war in Syria and
   arms control, negotiations that White House officials have signaled
   could be fruitful.

   "I will be talking about nuclear proliferation," the president said
   alongside British Prime Minister Theresa May on Friday. "We've been
   modernizing and fixing and buying. And it's just a devastating
   technology. And they, likewise, are doing a lot. And it's a very, very
   bad policy."

   But it is the matter of election meddling, including fears Russia could
   try to interfere in the midterm elections this fall, that could play a
   central role in the summit talks or loom even larger if not addressed.
   In neither of Trump's previous meetings with Putin -- informal talks on
   the sidelines of summits last year in Germany and Vietnam _ did the
   president publicly upbraid the Russian leader, prompting questions
   about whether he believed the former KGB officer's denials over his own
   intelligence agencies' assessments of meddling.

   Trump repeatedly has cast doubt on the conclusion that Russia was
   behind the hacking of his Democratic rivals and disparaged special
   counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into possible links between
   Russia and his campaign as a "witch hunt." But he said in Britain that
   he would raise it with Putin even as he downplayed its impact.

   "I don't think you'll have any 'Gee, I did it. I did it. You got me,"'
   Trump said, invoking a television detective. "There won't be a Perry
   Mason here, I don't think. But you never know what happens, right? But
   I will absolutely firmly ask the question."

   What Putin wants

   For Putin, sitting down with Trump offers a long-awaited chance to
   begin repairing relations with Washington after years of spiraling
   tensions.

   Putin wants the U.S. and its allies to lift sanctions, pull back NATO
   forces deployed near Russia's borders and restore business as usual
   with Moscow. In the longer run, he hopes to persuade the U.S. to
   acknowledge Moscow's influence over its former Soviet neighbors and,
   more broadly, recognize Russia as a global player whose interests must
   be taken into account.

   These are long-term goals, and Putin realizes that no significant
   progress will come from just one meeting. More than anything else, he
   sees Monday's summit as an opportunity to develop good rapport with
   Trump and set the stage for regular high-level contacts.

   "Russia-U.S. ties aren't just at their lowest point since the end of
   the Cold War, they never were as bad as they are now," said Fyodor
   Lukyanov, who chairs the Council for Foreign and Defense Policies, an
   influential Moscow-based association of policy experts. "It's unhealthy
   and abnormal when the leaders of the two nuclear powers capable of
   destroying each other and the rest of the world don't meet."

   Moscow views Trump's criticism of NATO allies and his recent comments
   about wanting Russia back in the Group of Seven club of leading
   industrialized nations with guarded optimism but no euphoria. Initially
   excited about Trump's election, the Kremlin has long realized that his
   hands are bound by the ongoing investigations into whether his campaign
   colluded with Moscow.

   Konstantin Kosachev, the Kremlin-connected head of the foreign affairs
   committee in parliament's upper house, wrote in his blog that Russia
   won't engage in vague talk about "illusory subjects," such as the
   prospect of lifting Western sanctions or Russia's return to the G-7.

   Putin knows it would be unrealistic to expect U.S. recognition of
   Russia's annexation of Crimea or a quick rollback of sanctions approved
   by Congress. Instead, he's likely to focus on issues where compromise
   is possible to help melt the ice.

   Syria is one area where Moscow and Washington could potentially reach
   common ground.

   One possible agreement could see Washington give a tacit go-ahead for a
   Syrian army deployment along the border with Israel in exchange for the
   withdrawal of Iranian forces and their Hezbollah proxies, whose
   presence in the area represents a red line for Israel.

   There is little hope for any quick progress on other major issues.

   Kosachev said it would be "pointless" to discuss Russian meddling in
   the U.S. election, which Moscow firmly denies. He also warned that
   demands for Russia to return Crimea to Ukraine or revise its policy on
   eastern Ukraine would be equally fruitless. The Kremlin sees Crimea's
   status as non-negotiable and puts the blame squarely on the Ukrainian
   government for the lack of progress on a 2015 plan to resolve the
   conflict in eastern Ukraine.

   Putin has held the door open for a possible deployment of U.N.
   peacekeepers to separate the warring sides, but firmly rejected
   Ukraine's push for their presence along the border with Russia.

   On arms control, one area where the U.S. and Russia might reach
   agreement is a possible extension of the New START treaty, set to
   expire in 2021, which caps the number of deployed nuclear warheads at
   1,550 for each country.

   The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed in 1987 by
   President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, is
   supposed to last indefinitely but has increasingly run into trouble.
   The U.S. has accused Russia of violating the terms of the treaty by
   developing a new cruise missile, which Moscow has denied.

   Russia has pledged adherence to both treaties, but it has become less
   focused on arms control agreements than in the past, when it was
   struggling to maintain nuclear parity with the U.S.

   After complaining about U.S. missile defense plans as a major threat to
   Russia, Putin in March unveiled an array of new weapons he said would
   render the U.S. missile shield useless, including a hypersonic
   intercontinental strike vehicle and a long-range nuclear-powered
   underwater drone armed with an atomic weapon.

   "Russia was much weaker, and the weak always try to appeal to
   international law," Lukyanov said. "But the atmosphere is different
   now, and Russia is much more self-confident."