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Syria's Multi-Sided War Taxes Russia

by Jamie Dettmer

   Russia has played a decisive role in saving the regime of Syrian
   President Bashar al-Assad from ouster, but every week Moscow is finding
   it harder to arbitrate the winding down of a seven-year-long conflict
   that may have entered its most dangerous phase.

   The biggest challenge facing the Kremlin is juggling the demands of the
   various players in Syria -- those it is allied with or keen to improve
   ties with -- amid mounting risks of the conflict spilling across
   borders and spreading to the wider Middle East.

   The flare-up between Israel and Iran last Saturday, during which an
   Iranian drone and an Israeli warplane were downed and intensive Israeli
   bombing of Syrian air defense batteries and Iranian bases ensued, was a
   sharp reminder, say analysts, of how difficult it is for Moscow to
   control events in Syria and to capitalize on its intervention to expand
   Russian influence across the Middle East.

   Russia is now grappling with problems similar to those the United
   States encountered in the past in Iraq, say analysts.

   "You break it, you own it," U.S. General Colin Powell warned President
   George W. Bush on the eve of the U.S.-led invasion of Saddam Hussein's
   Iraq. Moscow didn't start the war in Syria but by launching an
   intervention in September 2015 to prop up the Assad regime it has ended
   up having an ownership role -- and facing as a result unintended
   consequences amid the risk of escalation and clashes between the many
   foreign powers now sucked into the conflict.

   At every turn Moscow is having to try to head off confrontations
   between its friends and those it is seeking to befriend -- as it did
   last week in organizing conciliatory messages between the Syrians and
   Israelis to stop the flare-up from turning into something even more
   deadly.

   Turkish front
   The risks were on display again this week, with Assad apparently
   threatening to send troops into the Kurdish enclave of Afrin to help
   Syrian Kurds defend it from assault by Turks and allied Syrian rebel
   militias.

   On Monday, Syrian state media announced that pro-Assad forces were
   poised to enter the enclave to support the Kurdish YPG militia -- a
   move that would see Turkish and Syrian government forces square off.
   That would dash Russian hopes of securing a breakthrough in a tortuous
   Syrian peace process the Kremlin has been overseeing.

   Turkish deputy prime minister Bekir Bozdag says Syrian state-run media
   reports of pro-Assad "Popular Forces" preparing to enter Afrin had not
   been confirmed by officials in Damascus. But clearly Ankara remains
   anxious that Assad may decide to make a move. Bozdag added a warning:
   "Any decision by the Syrian regime to send forces into Afrin to support
   PYD/YPG terror organizations or any step taken in this direction will
   have disastrous consequences for the region."

   As the Russian military intervention unfolded in Syria in 2015, Russian
   leader Vladimir Putin pledged it would be quick and decisive. But after
   two-and-a-half years Russia remains militarily involved, conducting
   airstrikes on anti-Assad rebel holdouts as well as being diplomatically
   ensnared as a referee between squabbling external forces that are
   upping their involvement in Syria. In the last few weeks Iranian-backed
   militias shelled a Turkish military convoy; Russians were killed in
   eastern Syria in clashes between Assad's force and the Kurds triggered
   American airstrikes.

   "I think a lot of people in Moscow are asking the question, 'what is
   the exit strategy' for Russia in Syria, according to analyst Maxim
   Suchkov. "There is a genuine desire to get this all on a track of
   political settlement and to start monetizing Russian achievements in
   Syria and other parts of the region, meaning in terms of political,
   financial, energy and arms deals -- to take the opportunity of the
   moment while there is this view of Russia being a new sheriff and
   decisive force" in the region, he argues.

   In search of exit strategy
   But he says it is difficult to see how Russia can broker a political
   settlement to the multi-sided conflict when Assad now appears less
   controllable by Moscow and Iran, the Kurds, Turkey and Israel -- a
   country Moscow has been courting, have very different views on the
   Syrian endgame.
   In a recent paper for the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC),
   a Moscow-based think tank partly sponsored by the Russian Foreign
   Ministry, analysts Andrey Kortunov and Ivan Timofeev warned that
   "contradictions both within Syria and among external players" --
   especially over Iran's expanding influence in the region and Turkey's
   stance on the autonomy ambitions of Syria Kurds -- risks disrupting
   Kremlin plans and stretching Moscow's efforts to keep a lid on things.

   Earlier this month, Russian efforts to secure a breakthrough in
   turbulent peace talks in Sochi fell apart with the main Syrian
   opposition groups boycotting the negotiations and Russian officials
   being heckled by some participants.

   In January, Putin declared that Moscow's intervention in Syria had
   accomplished its mission, claiming the main goal of vanquishing the
   Islamic State terror had been achieved. But Russia remains bogged down
   in a complex conflict that refuses to be brought to an end.