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Catalonia's Secessionists Divided on Whether to Announce Breakaway

by Jamie Dettmer

   BRUSSELS --

   Pressure is building on Catalonia's hardline secessionist leaders, from
   moderates and business leaders in the restive north-east Spanish
   region, to pull back from the brink and to refrain from issuing a
   declaration of independence later on Tuesday.

   Carles Puigdemont, the region's president, and other secessionist
   leaders have vowed to announce a breakaway state after last week's
   controversial plebiscite, which was declared illegal by the government
   and courts in Madrid.

   But an exodus of businesses, including two of Spain's leading banks, a
   major telecommunications company and a construction group, as well as a
   massive weekend protest in Barcelona by 350,000 Catalans opposed to
   separation, is starting to take its toll among moderates, who are
   alarmed at the prospects of economic collapse and civil unrest.

   They are calling for a pause and for more efforts to open up
   negotiations with the center-right government of Mariano Rajoy, who is
   under pressure from his party to maintain a strong line with the
   secessionists. Barcelona's mayor, Ada Colau, argued Monday night
   against declaring independence, saying it would threaten Catalonia's
   "social cohesion."

   She called for urgent negotiations, warning that Spain faced its
   "greatest institutional crisis" since its return to democracy following
   the death of Gen. Francisco Franco in 1975. "We cannot allow ourselves
   to jeopardize either social cohesion or Catalan institutions," she
   said.

   She added: "The results of 1 October cannot be used as a guarantee for
   the declaration of independence. But they do represent an opportunity
   to open dialogue and international mediation."

   The secessionists' coalition, Together For Yes, commands only a thin
   majority in Catalonia's regional government and it isn't clear whether
   a majority will approve an independence declaration. The far-left
   Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) is urging Puigdemont to honor the result
   of the disputed referendum, pointing out that under the referendum law
   the regional parliament passed ahead of the plebiscite, the legislature
   pledged to do so.

   Puigdemont is set to reveal his plans later Tuesday in an address to
   the regional parliament -- his first comments before the legislature
   since the referendum a week ago that saw an overwhelming majority of
   Catalans vote for secession. The turnout, though, was under 50 percent
   and opinion polls have suggested consistently that more Catalans want
   to stay with Spain than breakaway.

   He had originally promised to make a unilateral declaration of
   independence within 48 hours of a victory for the secessionist
   campaign, but held off doing so, calling instead for talks with the
   Madrid government.

   But even senior members of Puigdemont's own more moderate Catalan
   European Democratic Party are urging caution, including Ramon Tremosa,
   a member of the European Parliament. He is counseling following
   Slovenia's strategy when it broke away from the then Yugoslavia.
   Slovenia announced secession but suspended implementation pending
   negotiations with its Yugoslav neighbors and European powers.

   "Nobody can recognize internationally an independence that has not been
   achieved," he said. "We know from the experience of Slovenia and other
   countries that this experience may take weeks or months," he added.

   But inching Catalonia closer to breaking away may well invite as firm a
   response from Madrid as an open declaration of independence. Spanish
   prime minister Rajoy is expected by analysts to invoke Article 155 of
   the constitution, which allows the central government to take control
   of an autonomous region, if it fails to "fulfill the obligations
   imposed upon it by the constitution or other laws, or acts in a way
   that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest of Spain."

   Article 155 has never been invoked before and it risks angering even
   more secessionist Catalans, who are still furious at the Spanish
   national police's efforts to disrupt the October 1 referendum, which
   saw officers raiding polling stations, beating voters and firing rubber
   bullets at crowds. Thousands of Guardia Civil and national police who
   were deployed by Madrid to stop the vote have remained in the region.

   At the weekend Rajoy warned he would do everything in his power to
   prevent Catalonia from breaking away. In an interview with Spain's El