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US, Others Look to China to Help Increase Pressure on North Korea

by William Ide

   BEIJING --

   The United States is calling for a tough response to North Korea's
   launch this week of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and
   one key country Washington and others are looking to for help is China,
   particularly as the U.S. seeks to draw up new and tighter sanctions.
   North Korea is expected to be a key topic when Chinese leader Xi
   Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump host talks on the sidelines of
   this week's Group of 20 summit in Hamburg, Germany.
   Japan, South Korea and the United States are also scheduled to hold
   trilateral talks on North Korea during the summit on Friday and
   Saturday.
   Britain's foreign minister, Boris Johnson, has called on China to do
   more to increase pressure on Pyongyang.
   "The single most important thing is that the country with the most
   direct economic relationship with North Korea, that is China, has got
   to continue to put on the pressure. And in the last six months or so,
   we are seeing some real changes in Beijing's attitude to North Korea
   and that's got to go further," Johnson said in an interview with BBC
   radio.
   China indispensable
   China is North Korea's biggest ally and trading partner. Over the first
   quarter of this year, China saw its trade with North Korea grow by
   nearly 40 percent.

   At the same time, however, Beijing has begun implementing new
   sanctions, on North Korean coal, that were passed late last year. In
   February, Beijing banned the import of coal for the rest of the year,
   and according to statistics released in April, those imports to China
   dropped by almost 52 percent, compared with the same period last year.
   Chinese analysts argue that China is already doing more than it is
   being given credit for.
   "The West believes that China has great influence over North Korea,
   highlighting its military alliance with the North and North Korea's
   economic reliance on China and argues that strong sanctions through
   either can change its behavior, but such thinking and assumptions are
   incorrect," said Cai Jian, a North Korea specialist and professor at
   Shanghai's Fudan University.
   In an interview with VOA's Mandarin service, Cai said that what North
   Korea really needs is security assurance, which China cannot provide.
   So far, China has expressed its condemnation of the launch along with
   other countries, calling it a "flagrant violation" of United Nations
   resolutions. China has not, however, said anything definitive regarding
   sanctions.
   Tighter sanctions
   At an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting on North Korea
   Wednesday, U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley said a new draft resolution
   would be circulated among council members "in the coming days."

   U.S. officials have indicated that restrictions on the flow of oil and
   other energy supplies to Pyongyang's military and weapons programs,
   tightened controls over air and maritime traffic to North Korea, and
   further moves to hold senior officials of the Kim Jong Un regime
   responsible are among the new sanctions under consideration. Chinese
   analysts have indicated that controls on travel to North Korea and its
   export of labor could also be considered.
   The export of forced labor is a key conduit through which North Korea
   obtains funds from overseas. The issue was highlighted recently when
   Secretary of State Rex Tillerson unveiled a new report on human
   trafficking. In the ranking, released late last month, China was listed
   among the world's worst human trafficking offenders.
   In comments, Tillerson accused Russia and China of, in effect, paying
   North Korea for slave labor.
   Still, some are skeptical that sanctions can stop North Korea.
   Richard Bitzinger, a senior fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School
   of International Studies, said sanctions may make the West feel good
   but are unlikely to change North Korea's behavior because they do not
   impact the elite.
   "Kim and the top one percent of the North Korean hierarchy have ways to
   get around sanctions and make sure that they stay in that comfortable
   lifestyle," he said. "We are past the point where the North Koreans
   will give up their nuclear weapons and missile systems."

   Ripe for disruption
   Others argue that there are "chokeholds" that could be better used to
   dismantle and disrupt North Korea's illicit overseas financing and
   procurements for its weapons programs.
   They also note that North Korea's sanctions pale in comparison to what
   was used to help broker a deal with Iran.
   In a recent report, titled [1]"Risky Business", the Center for Advanced
   Defense Studies argues that while North Korea uses a wide range of
   networks to skirt international programs and continue its pursuit of
   nuclear weapons, the system is "centralized, limited and vulnerable."
   The report argues that the disruption of key facilitators could greatly
   increase pressure on Kim Jong Un to return to the negotiating table.

   "China, the largest market exploited by North Korean overseas networks,
   represents about 85 percent of total North Korean trade," the report
   said. "Yet, this entire trading system has consisted of only 5,233
   companies from 2013 to 2016."
   Such work is already underway. Last year, the U.S. Treasury Department
   sanctioned Dandong Hongxiang Industrial Development Co., its company
   head Ma Xiaohong and three other employees over their close ties to
   North Korea's nuclear weapons program. And while China is opposed to
   unilateral sanctions, it also carried out its own investigation.
   Ma was arrested, but charges against her, if any, have not been made
   public and no one knows where she is. Ma is a former communist party
   member who also held a seat on Liaoning Province's People's Congress
   before her arrest.
   Late last month, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on two
   Chinese citizens and a shipping company for helping North Korea. The
   Bank of Dandong, based in a city that is a key crossing point to North
   Korea, was also sanctioned, accused of money laundering for Pyongyang.

References

   1. https://c4reports.squarespace.com/risky-business/?utm_content=buffereb2ca&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#executive-summary-2