Originally posted by the Voice of America.
Voice of America content is produced by the Voice of America,
a United States federal government-sponsored entity, and is in
the public domain.


In North Korea, Rise of Consumer Culture is the Real Revolution

by Associated Press

   PYONGYANG, NORTH KOREA --

   Like all North Korean adults, Song Un Pyol wears the faces of leader
   Kim Jong Un's father and grandfather pinned neatly to her left lapel,
   above her heart. But on her right glitters a diamond-and-gold brooch.
   Song is what a success story in Kim Jong Un's North Korea is supposed
   to look like. Just after Kim assumed power in late 2011, she started
   managing the supermarket floor at a state-run department store, which
   has freezers stocked full of pork and beef and rows of dairy, bakery
   and canned goods. She watches as customers fill their shopping carts,
   take their groceries directly to be scanned at the checkout counter and
   pay with cash or bank debit cards.
   Song is part of a paradigm shift within North Korea: Three generations
   into the Kim family's ruling dynasty, markets have blossomed and a
   consumer culture is taking root. From 120 varieties of "May Day
   Stadium'' brand ice cream to the widespread use of plastic to pay the
   bills, it's a change visibly and irreversibly transforming her nation.

   Market forces will out

   While Kim has in recent weeks gained attention for his threat to fire
   missiles near Guam, his trademark two-track policy focuses on the
   development of both nuclear weapons and the economy. His acceptance of
   a more consumer-friendly economy is meant to foster economic growth and
   bring profits into the regime's coffers. But like his pursuit of
   nuclear weapons, it's a risky business.

   Facing even more international sanctions and a flood of Chinese imports
   that has generated a huge trade imbalance, there are good reasons to
   believe the North Korean economy is in a bubble that could soon burst.
   Prices for gasoline imports have soared more than 200 percent in less
   than six months, the AP has found. The price of rice is also believed
   to be sharply rising, although harder to independently confirm because
   of the difficulty in visiting local markets.
   The new round of sanctions announced by the U.N. earlier this month
   will make it harder for the North to export its goods, cap the number
   of laborers it can send abroad -- an important source of foreign
   currency for the regime -- and limit the growth of joint ventures.
   North Korea will be hit particularly strongly by a Chinese ban on
   several key products, including coal, iron ore and seafood.
   The problem, however, goes deeper than that.
   Market forces bring new forms of competition, uncertainty and change
   that are the antithesis of the centrally controlled, state-run economy
   of the North Korea of old. Markets are like a genie offering to grant
   the wish of wealth, but at the potential cost of political instability.
   Once the genie has been released from its bottle, it's very hard to put
   it back in.

   Guns and butter
   The North Korean consumer landscape has evolved dramatically under Kim
   Jong Un.
   In keeping with his father, whose motto was "Military First,'' Kim
   devotes nearly a quarter of North Korea's estimated $30 billion GDP to
   defense spending, which is a far higher military burden than any other
   country in the world. But his new slogan of "Parallel Development'' --
   guns and butter, so to speak -- reflects an inescapable reality of his
   era.
   In the 1990s, North Korea nearly imploded when the Soviet Union and its
   satellite empire collapsed. Reeling from floods, famine and an
   overwhelmed bureaucracy, it could no longer afford the public
   distribution system many North Koreans had depended on for their basic
   needs. This change sparked a wave of grassroots barter and trade, which
   has swollen into the burgeoning market economy today.

   Life in rural North Korea is still marked by far more hardship and
   scarcity than in its urban areas, and is hard even to compare to the
   showcase capital, Pyongyang. Yet there is, surprisingly, a bustling,
   almost booming, feeling in many parts of the country.

   Local control and entrepreneurs

   Under a five-year plan for the economy Kim Jong Un announced last May,
   North Korean factories are putting a new priority on making more and
   better daily-life products. Managers, meanwhile, have more freedom to
   decide what to make, how much to pay their workers and how to forge
   profitable partnerships.
   Along the roads into virtually every city, street vendors, usually
   weather-beaten old women, sell fruits, vegetables and other food. In
   the cities, bazaar-style markets, shops and department stores are full
   of people. The shelves are lined with dozens of brands of domestically
   made cigarettes, sugary soft drinks and colorfully packaged chips or
   canned soups.
   In specialty shops, the latest "Pyongyang'' model smartphones, probably
   Chinese-made but rebranded to have a locally made appearance, go for
   $200. Apps to put on them, like the popular "Boy General'' role-playing
   game, are $2 a pop. Pyongyang's premier brewery, Taedonggang, just
   added an eighth kind of beer to its product line, which already
   includes beers dark and light, and even one that is chocolatey.

   Despite the ever-tightening sanctions, consumer products are still
   coming in from around the world. Buying a can of Pokka coffee from
   Japan is easy, and costs about 80 cents. Purchasing a Mercedes-Benz
   Viano might require some connections, but it is doable, for a $63,000
   sticker price.
   Trade, yes; advertising, no

   On the country's bumpy highways, caravans of cram-packed long-distance
   buses and trucks hauling goods from city to city are common. More
   products made in Pyongyang are found in rural areas these days, and
   vice versa. Although the use of U.S. dollars or Chinese yuan remains
   widespread, more people are using prepaid cards or local bills at the
   checkout counter, suggesting greater buying power in general and more
   confidence in the stability of the national currency.
   Some blatant manifestations of commercialism remain taboo. There are
   only three billboards in Pyongyang, a city of about 3 million. They
   advertise the local automaker, Pyonghwa Motors, and are more for the
   benefit of impressing foreign visitors than selling cars. There are no
   advertisements on television or in the newspapers.
   But stores are under instructions to be more consumer-friendly.
   "At first, we opened the store from 10 in the morning to 6 in the
   evening,'' said Song. "But in 2015, our dear respected Marshal Kim Jong
   Un made sure that we serve from 10 in the morning to 8 in the evening
   so one can use late night at any given time, as many working people
   often used the shop during the evening after work.''

   Stores now commonly offer buy-two-get-one-free type sales and discounts
   on products the management wants to move off the shelves. Posters for
   new medicines or sports drinks can be seen inside shops and customers
   can sign up for "loyalty cards'' to get points toward ever more
   discounts.
   "In today's North Korea there is a growing competition between the
   domestic companies themselves as they try to attract customers and
   establish reputable brands,'' said Michael Spavor, a Canadian
   entrepreneur who visits the North frequently and is one of the only
   Westerners to have ever met Kim Jong Un.
   Spavor calls it a "brilliant strategy.''
   But the emphasis on locally produced consumer goods isn't just because
   Kim wants to make good on his promise to give his people a higher
   standard of living.
   It's also an attempt to counter the gravitational pull of China.

   The power of China
   As sanctions advocates rightly point out, cutting off trade with China
   would be catastrophic for Pyongyang. But North Korean leaders,
   including Kim Jong Un, have shown a great deal of concern over the flip
   side of that coin: What might happen to their country if trade
   continues, or grows larger.
   The expansion of trade increases Chinese leverage on the ground and
   feeds market forces that are hard for Pyongyang to keep under control.
   China accounts for nearly all of North Korea's trade and its fuel.
   While the North has minimal dealings with the rest of the world, it did
   $2 billion worth of business with China in the first five months of
   this year alone.
   During Kim Jong Un's first three years in power, North Korea's exports
   to China of coal, garments, minerals and seafood were all growing. But
   what North Korea was able to sell to China fell far short of what it
   needed to buy, particularly because of its need for oil and fuel
   products.
   That imbalance has widened dramatically this year as China cut back on
   buying from the North. The new U.N. sanctions will further squeeze the
   North's main sources of export income.

   'Signs of trouble
   Georgetown University economist William Brown estimates the North is
   suffering an outflow of $200 million in foreign exchange every month.
   This is crucial because the more Pyongyang owes Beijing, the less it
   has to spend on other things. But it still needs essential commodities
   like food and fuel, which can deepen the problems of both shortages and
   inflation.
   Right around April, according to data compiled by the AP, gasoline
   prices started to soar. Many stations either closed their gates or
   restricted the amount they would sell each customer. As of late July,
   the price surge had yet to abate.
   Few North Koreans have their own cars. But gasoline, virtually all of
   which comes from China, fuels the transportation of goods and people in
   the new economy.
   Brown said the price of rice was also up nearly 20 percent in July from
   May and was significantly higher than a year ago. There could be a
   trickle-down effect, since tractors and even the fertilizer used to
   grow rice require petroleum products. Fears of a poor harvest in the
   fall could send prices shooting up.
   "This may represent the greatest near-term threat to the regime
   stability,'' Brown said.
   North Korea has proven it is nothing if not resilient, often finding a
   way out of its economic problems. Even so, the longer-term changes to
   society won't be easy to address.
   The goods and trading opportunities spilling across the Chinese border
   are also spurring the growth of profitable enterprises, which has
   substantial financial benefits for well-connected individuals and, at
   least initially, the regime's elite. For this tier of North Korean
   society -- and for farmers who can profit from their excess produce --
   the new economy has opened up a way to get money from sometimes
   under-the-table businesses.
   Loyalty to the regime and party ties remain an important means of
   social advancement. But, in Kim Jong Un's North Korea these days, so is
   a good sense for how to run a proper side hustle to augment what are
   often paltry official paychecks.
   However, the same opportunities have widened the gap between the rich
   by North Korean standards and the poor. The haves benefit
   disproportionately from the new economy, while a far larger number of
   have-nots live mostly outside the Pyongyang bubble of affluence.
   Ambiguity over what officials will overlook and what they will strictly
   enforce has also created a gray area that opens the door to corruption
   and bribery.
   Double-edged sword
   The regime is not blind to what's happening. It knows the new
   consumerism can be a destabilizing force. But it also knows it needs
   the markets.
   North Korean officials insist markets are a stopgap coping measure for
   the economy that will be overcome. Kang Chol Min, a researcher with the
   Economics Institute of the Academy of Social Science, said the regime
   is trying to produce more, and better, goods to woo consumers away from
   the markets and back to state-run businesses.
   "The number of people relying on the state-run commercial networks is
   increasing,'' he said in an interview with AP Television News.
   But many outside experts believe state enterprises and farms are too
   inefficient to provide enough goods and services for the whole nation
   without the help of markets and private activities.
   If they are right, it's hard to imagine North Korea's economic future
   will lie in Kang's vow to produce more goods locally. Nor is it likely
   to be model worker Song, the state-sanctioned success story.
   It might, however, be a Miniso store.
   Miniso is decidedly not trying to appeal to the shoppers by filling its
   shelves with products made in North Korea. It's an international brand
   name -- found in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney -- selling bargain-priced
   goods such as backpacks and consumer electronics. Its Pyongyang store
   just opened in April, near two of the capital's most prestigious
   universities in a newly built high-rise district appropriately called
   Ryomyong Gori, the "Avenue of Dawn.''
   It's the trendiest shop in town.
   And it's a joint venture. With China.