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          US Lifting Vietnam Arms Embargo a 'Wake-up Call' for Russia

   by Daniel Schearf

   U.S. President Barack Obama's announced lifting of a decades-old arms
   embargo against Vietnam is raising eyebrows not only in China, where a
   dispute with Hanoi in the South China Sea inflames military tensions,
   but also in Russia.

   Russia has long been Hanoi's top weapons supplier. But, that dominance
   will slowly be eroded as the market is opened and U.S. arms dealers
   begin to seize the opportunity.

   `It will ultimately undermine Russian dominance in the Vietnamese
   market, but is unlikely to have a quick effect," said Alexander Gabuev,
   chairman of the Russia-Asia Pacific program at the Carnegie Moscow
   Center, in e-mailed comments to VOA.

   "The market environment will be more competitive, but Russia has a
   strong position in terms of value-for-money of its systems, the
   Vietnamese military's long-standing ties to Russian producers and the
   need to train personnel. A lot will depend on whether the U.S.
   government will support possible sales of American systems, and what
   the position of the next government will be."
   .
   The U.S. ban on lethal weapons supplies to Vietnam was lifted after
   non-lethal arms sales were eased in 2014. However, all sales still have
   to meet U.S. government approval.

   "I wouldn't expect a sudden surge in US arms exports to Vietnam as the
   inertia in the sphere of arms procurement is very strong," said Anton
   Tsvetov, a researcher at the Russian International Affairs Council
   (RIAC),  in e-mailed replies to VOA.

   "Russia," he added, "is likely to retain its dominance on the
   Vietnamese arms market in most of the high-value sectors, such as
   fighter jets, combat ships and missile defense systems, at least for
   the decade to come. The U.S., however, may occupy certain niches,
   including maritime surveillance and reconnaissance."

   Vietnam has been seeking to beef up its navy as China builds its
   military presence around disputed islands in the South China Sea. By
   the end of this year, Russia is expected to deliver the last of six
   Kilo-class diesel submarines to Vietnam.

   According to Tsvetov, while Moscow will not welcome the prospect of
   competition with U.S. arms dealers, the significance has less to do
   with military concerns than politics. "For the overall state of
   Russia-Vietnam relations, this development is certainly a wake-up call
   for Russia," he said. "Moscow will have to work harder to maintain
   strong ties with Vietnam."

   Russia's official TASS news agency on Monday quoted the deputy head of
   Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, Anatoly Punchuk,
   saying the embargo being lifted would not affect Moscow's arms supplies
   to Vietnam.

   "Our relations with Vietnam are of a strategic character and their
   further development will depend on the leadership of Vietnam," said
   Punchuk.

   Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc met last week with Russian
   President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and during a summit in Sochi with
   leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

   "Hanoi, for its part, is very careful to demonstrate that this is not a
   pivot from Russia, but a move towards a well-balanced foreign policy,
   one normal for an aspiring middle power, said Tsvetov.

   "The long and substantial visit to Moscow and Sochi by the new
   Vietnamese PM Nguyen Xuan Phuc, among other things, was meant to
   reassure the Russian leadership that Vietnam is still loyal to its
   strategic partnership with Russia, no matter what developments the
   Obama visit brings," he said.

   The Russia-ASEAN summit was seen as a bid by Moscow to expand its
   so-called "pivot east" beyond improving relations with China.

   Hanoi has been concerned that Russia has tilted towards Beijing's
   position in the South China Sea dispute by opposing
   internationalization of the conflict.  Still, Moscow has managed to
   balance their relations thus far.

   Russia sells arms to both sides, and Gazprom, its state gas company,
   drills in disputed waters. Gabuev said China understands that if it
   insisted Russia choose the larger Chinese market over Vietnam's, Hanoi
   would turn to more strategically uncomfortable suppliers. "It will have
   nowhere else to go (other than to) Japan or to the United States," he
   said. "China definitely doesn't want to see that outcome."

   Speaking in Vietnam on Monday, Obama said that lifting the ban was a
   part of normalizing relations and not aimed at China, though Beijing
   sees it differently.

   "We may see even more aggressive efforts of Rosoboronexport [Russia's
   state arms dealer] to boost its presence in Vietnam, as China is likely
   to prefer increased Russian-Vietnamese military ties to
   American-Vietnamese" ties, said Gabuev. "Moscow will look at the issue
   from predominantly business perspective, not in terms of balance of
   power."
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   up-call-russia/3342370.html

References

   1. http://www.voanews.com/content/lifting-us-arms-embargo-vietnam-wake-up-call-russia/3342370.html