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                 Internal US Memo Re: Syria, What Does it Mean?

   by Pamela Dockins, Masood Farivar

   Within the Obama administration, disagreement over Syria policy is
   nearly as old as the 5-year-old conflict itself.



   While some senior State Department officials have long favored more
   aggressive action against the Bashar al-Assad government, the White
   House has resisted those calls out of fear of pushing the U.S. into
   another war. Instead, it has focused on a military campaign against the
   Islamic State group.

   But an internal diplomatic cable criticizing the administration's
   police that was signed by more than 50 State Department diplomats has
   set brought the discussion to the fore.

   A draft of the cable, initially revealed to The New York Times and Wall
   Street Journal, asks the Obama administration to employ a "judicious
   use of stand-off and air weapons" to directly engage the Syrian army
   and in a bid to hasten an end to the civil war.

   "The moral rationale for taking steps to end the deaths and suffering
   in Syria, after five years of brutal war, is evident and
   unquestionable,'' it reads.  "The status quo in Syria will continue to
   present increasingly dire, if not disastrous, humanitarian, diplomatic
   and terrorism-related challenges.''

   A critical mass

   One reason the cable has rocked Washington is the high number of
   signatories.
   "Fifty-one loyal and effective officials have risked their careers to
   protest a policy that is profoundly wrong and fully counterproductive,"
   said Atlantic Council analyst Fred Hof.

   The former U.S. ambassador to Syria says it is highly unusual, if not
   unprecedented, for more than 50 State Department diplomats to sign an
   internal diplomatic cable critical of presidential policy.

   "In my experience dating back to 1985 in the Department of State,"
   Robert Ford said, "I have never heard of a dissent channel message that
   had 10 signatures - much less one that had 50."

   He said the high number of signatures is an indication that the
   officials responsible for implementing policy measures on the ground in
   Syria, pushing for a negotiated political solution and dealing with the
   refugee crisis, do not believe they can meet objectives under the
   current policy.

   "They are warning that the way that it is going now, it is never going
   to succeed and there needs to be, therefore, a change," said Ford, who
   is now a Middle East Institute analyst.

   Dramatic policy changes unlikely

   But Ford added that President Barack Obama is unlikely to make dramatic
   changes to his Syria policy so late in his administration.

   Obama "sets Syria policy," says Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at
   the Brookings Institution, and if he wasn't persuaded by criticisms
   voiced by former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and other senior
   officials, "I don't think what 51 diplomats say will do the trick."

   The White House's opposition to armed intervention in the Syrian
   conflict stems from U.S. experience in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya,
   said Steven Hydemann, the Janet Wright Ketcham chair of Middle Eastern
   Studies at Smith College.

   "It sees Syria through the lens of those earlier experiences," Hydemann
   said of the Obama administration.

   "No one is content with the status quo," said State Department
   spokesman John Kirby in a Friday briefing.

   He added that as the administration looked at other options, "none of
   those other options are better than the one that we are pursuing."


   Cable may affect campaigns

   Even if the memo does not sway the Obama administration into taking
   greater military action in Syria, a far greater impact of the cable may
   play out in the presidential campaign.

   Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump could use it
   as ammunition to criticize the administration's Syria policy, while
   Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, is
   likely to use it in support of her call for a more vigorous approach
   toward the Syrian conflict.

   Clinton has called for the creation of a no-fly zone over rebel-held
   areas in Syria and a more forceful delivery of humanitarian assistance,
   among other measures.

   "I think it matters a great deal in the upcoming electoral debate,"
   Brookings' O'Hanlon said. "By critiquing the administration's Syria
   policy, they've invigorated the debate and added a neutral voice to the
   debate."
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   [1]http://www.voanews.com/content/internal-us-memo-re-syria-what-does-i
   t-mean/3381924.html

References

   1. http://www.voanews.com/content/internal-us-memo-re-syria-what-does-it-mean/3381924.html