Originally posted by the Voice of America.
Voice of America content is produced by the Voice of America,
a United States federal government-sponsored entity, and is in
the public domain.


Ukrainians Want to Make a Deal with Trump

by Oleksiy Kuzmenko

   Ukrainians trying to figure out what to expect from U.S.
   President-elect Donald Trump may be having trouble.

   His praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin during the recent
   political campaign received a lot of media attention. On the other
   hand, Trump also criticized President Barack Obama for "not doing what
   he should be doing for Ukraine," tweeting that "Russia took Crimea
   during the so-called Obama years."

   What will Trump actually do regarding Ukraine?

   Taras Berezovets, a Kyiv-based political expert, put forward what he
   sees as a best-case scenario: The United States will remain Ukraine's
   security guarantor during Trump's presidency; boost financial
   assistance to Kyiv; provide it with lethal weapons, military trainers
   and intelligence (to deter Russia from escalating violence in eastern
   Ukraine's Donbas region); and join the Minsk peace process, aimed at
   ending the conflict between Ukraine's government and separatist forces
   backed by Russia.

   Volodymyr Horbach, a political analyst at the Institute for
   Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kyiv, offered a worst-case scenario:
   "Ukraine will be treated and used as a bargaining chip in relations
   with Russia," he told VOA in an email response.

   FILE - Vice President Joe Biden shakes hands with Ukraine Prime
   Minister Volodymyr Groysman in Biden's ceremonial office on the White
   House complex in Washington, June 15, 2016.

   Broad US assistance for Kyiv

   The United States has championed Western sanctions against Russia and
   has committed more than $1.3 billion in direct assistance to Ukraine
   and $2 billion in loan guarantees. A $17.5 billion financial package
   for Kyiv came from the International Monetary Fund, headquartered in
   Washington. The U.S. also plays a key role in Ukraine's
   anti-corruption, military and law enforcement reforms.

   In addition, Ukraine has had a self-described "phone pal" in outgoing
   Vice President Joe Biden, who spoke in September about his routine
   contacts with Ukraine's leaders. "In the last four years, I am on the
   phone two to three hours a week with those folks," Biden said.

   Such a relationship between Ukraine and the new U.S. president is
   unlikely, according to one high-ranking Russian official.

   "Ukraine seriously complicated the work of Trump's election campaign
   headquarters by planting information according to which Paul Manafort,
   Trump's former campaign chairman, allegedly accepted money from
   Ukrainian oligarchs," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria
   Zakharova said at a recent news conference.

   Manafort had to step down as the manager of Trump's presidential
   campaign in August, following reports that he earned millions of
   dollars working on behalf of Ukraine's ousted pro-Russian ruler, Viktor
   Yanukovych, and possibly lobbied illegally on Yanukovych's behalf in
   the United States. Some of the damaging information came from a
   Ukrainian anti-corruption agency.

   FILE - Trump Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort is surrounded by reporters
   on the floor of the Republican National Convention at Quicken Loans
   Arena in Cleveland, July 17, 2016.

   Contrary view from Moscow

   "As a man who is known for harboring a grudge, Trump is unlikely to
   give much attention to the political establishment of a country which
   gave its open support to Hillary Clinton," Andrey Kortunov, director
   general of the Russian International Affairs Council, told the Carnegie
   Moscow Center in November.

   Media reports earlier this month said Manafort may be advising Trump on
   Cabinet appointments. His close associate and former partner in
   Ukraine, Rick Gates, is now functioning as "shadow chair" of the Trump
   inaugural committee, according to Michael Isikoff of Yahoo News.

   "I'm not active in the transition, but I'm watching," Manafort told CBS
   News last week. He said the allegations against him were "not true,"
   but that he quit as Trump's campaign manager four months ago because he
   "became a block to his ability to communicate his message."

   Berezovets told VOA that Manafort will likely "advise Trump on Ukraine,
   whether in a formal or informal capacity," and may hold a grudge
   against Kyiv. Still, he said a telephone conversation between Ukrainian
   President Petro Poroshenko and Trump just days after the U.S. election
   was ground for optimism. The two leaders agreed to hold a future
   bilateral meeting, and according to the Ukrainian president's website,
   Poroshenko also stressed the need for "Washington's resolute support of
   Ukraine in countering the Russian aggression and implementing crucial
   reforms."

   This, the Ukrainian analyst said, is "evidence that Trump has zero
   prejudice with regard to Ukraine at the moment."

   FILE - President-elect Donald Trump talks to the media as he stands
   with retired Marine Corps Gen. James Mattis at the Trump National Golf
   Club Bedminster clubhouse in Bedminster, N.J., Nov. 19, 2016.

   Welcome Cabinet choices

   Despite concern in Ukraine about the U.S. president-elect's intentions,
   some observers are heartened by his Cabinet choices.

   James Mattis, picked by Trump to lead the Pentagon, called Putin a
   threat to the United States and its allies, described the events in
   Ukraine's Donbas and Crimea regions as "a war," and said the conflict
   there could destabilize the region.

   Jeff Sessions, Trump's choice to head the Department of Justice, has
   stated that the United States and Europe "have to unify" to push back
   against Russian overreach. Sessions also co-sponsored a bill that would
   authorize the U.S. president to arm Ukraine with lethal military aid.

   Horbach, the analyst from the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation
   in Kyiv, told VOA: "A lot will depend on Trump's choice for the
   secretary of state."

   Several names floated for top U.S. diplomat may be music to Kyiv's
   ears. Mitt Romney famously warned Obama about the danger posed by
   Russia back in 2008. Senator Bob Corker stressed the need for the U.S.
   to continue to support Ukraine and called for lethal aid for Ukraine's
   military. Former U.S. Ambassador the U.N. John Bolton has called for
   supplying Kyiv with weapons and fast-tracking Ukraine for NATO
   membership.

   FILE - A billboard showing a pictures of U.S. president-elect Donald
   Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen through pedestrians
   in Danilovgrad, Montenegro, Nov.16, 2016.

   Strength, respect

   While Trump's alleged "bromance" with Putin remains a popular trope in
   the U.S. media, the president-elect has made it clear that he wants the
   United States to be respected, and sees strength as a means to get
   respect.

   "Part of the problem that Ukraine has with the United States is that
   Putin does not respect our president whatsoever," Trump said about
   Obama in a video address to the Yalta European Strategy meeting in
   September 2015.

   "An optimistic scenario for Ukraine is that Trump will eventually
   discover Ukraine as a country that is key to resolving the Russia issue
   in international affairs," Horbach told VOA.

   Asked how relations between the Trump administration and Ukraine are
   likely to develop, Berezovets told VOA: "The U.S.-Ukraine relationship
   will become more pragmatic."

   Pragmatism may mean that the author of The Art of the Deal will meet
   Ukraine somewhere in the middle -- between its worst fears and its
   rosiest dreams.

   FILE - A mannequin soldier holding a rifle represents the "little green
   men" whom Russia dispatched to help annex Ukraine's Crimea. (VOA video
   screengrab)

   Trump ally predicts cooperation

   "One thing Donald Trump is not going to do is to make a bad deal,"
   Congressman Duncan Hunter told VOA, adding that the president-elect "is
   not going to make a bad deal for the Ukrainians and he is not going to
   make a bad deal for the United States."

   "What we want to do is we want to arm the Ukrainians not with just
   night-vision goggles and uniforms," Hunter said. "We want to give them
   anti-tank weapons. We want to give them anti-air weaponry, anti-drone,
   counterartillery stuff. We already gave some of the radars, but we want
   make it so that if Russians decide to push the West again, it is very
   costly for them."

   Hunter, a Republican from California who was one of the first members
   of Congress to endorse Trump, also is a former Marine who visited the
   Ukrainian military's front lines in Donbas. He contends the U.S. could
   provide lethal weapons to Ukraine and work with Moscow to secure
   Russia's withdrawal from Donbas, while giving Putin a free hand in
   Syria.

   Regarding Crimea, the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed
   in 2014, Hunter suggested Ukrainians should look at the facts: that
   Crimea is a Russian stronghold.

   "Do the Ukrainians want the United States to invade Crimea?" Hunter
   said. "It is not a possibility. So, what`s the answer? If Russians are
   not willing to leave Crimea but they are willing to leave the east of
   Ukraine, is that a bad thing? What do the Ukrainian people want?"