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Iranian-Turkish Tensions Escalate Over Syria, Iraq

by Dorian Jones

   ISTANBUL --

   Tensions between neighbors Turkey and Iran are on the rise, with the
   countries jostling for influence in war-torn Syria and Iraq. But there
   are concerns that the rivalry is fueling sectarian divisions in the
   region. The tensions could also open the door to cooperation with U.S.
   President-elect Donald Trump.

   Officially Ankara says it enjoys good neighborly relations with Tehran.
   But an escalating war of words in Turkey's pro-government media tells a
   different story, according to political columnist Semih Idiz of Al
   Monitor website and Turkey's Hurriyet Daily News.

   "It's very telling, that we have what appears to be an intense
   anti-Iranian campaign in the pro-government Islamist media," Idiz said.
   "I have been reading commentary by key figures on that side of the
   fence suggesting Iran as one of Turkey's prime enemies not just rivals
   in the region, because it's promoting its brand of Islamic, Shia Islam.
   But I don't actually see a direct confrontation although I do see a
   confrontation through proxies and in many ways that is already going
   on."

   Humanitarian concerns drive policy

   Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a devout Sunni Muslim, who
   derives much of his support from the country's large pious Sunni voting
   base.

   Erdogan is increasingly condemning the actions of Tehran-backed Shite
   Militias in Iraq. The Turkish President accuses the militias of
   targeting Sunnis. He also has indirectly accused Tehran of seeking to
   expand its influence at the expense of Sunni Muslims in the region. But
   Erdogan's chief of international relations Ayse Sozen Usluer insists
   humanitarian concerns rather than sectarian ones are driving Turkey's
   policy.

   "We are seeing that after all these militia operations in the region we
   are seeing some demographic changes," Usluer said. "We are not against
   Shia militia because they are Shia. But we would like to maintain the
   demography of the region, Tel Afar, Mosul, Jarabulus, Al Bab,
   wherever."

   U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks at the USA Thank You Tour
   event in Des Moines, Iowa, Dec. 8, 2016.

   "Unholy alliance"

   Erdogan has sent tanks to the Iraqi border, warning he would not stand
   by if Sunnis fall victim to Shite militias in the fight against Islamic
   State in Mosul and Tel Afar. Some analysts warn Turkey's neighbors will
   likely view the country as pursuing a sectarian policy that will put it
   on a collision course with Tehran.

   But any rising tensions with Tehran could be the basis for cooperation
   with newly-elected President Donald Trump. United States and Turkish
   relations remain deeply strained but with Trump vowing to take a tough
   line with Iran, columnist Idiz says common ground could be found.

   "They could be an unholy alliance of sorts, but Trump going after Iran
   is really based on Trump's anti-Islamism," Idiz said. "It's not based
   on any strategic ideological difference and anti-Islamism also splashes
   on to Turkey also, depending on what Turkey's policies are."

   A delicate balance

   Ankara could also find common ground with Israel which also is calling
   a for a tough stance against Tehran.

   Israel and Turkey last month restored full diplomatic relations.
   Turkish Iranian relations are traditionally characterized by a delicate
   balance of rivalry and cooperation, but analysts warn Ankara could end
   up paying a heavy price for any confrontation with Tehran, with Iran an
   adept player in the region in using proxies to destabilize its rivals.