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                  Former US Envoys: Iraq Situation Will Worsen

   by Sharon Behn

   Washington is losing the battle against Islamic State extremists, and
   the level of violence in Iraq is likely to get much worse before it
   gets better, former U.S. ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker has warned.

   "Clearly, there has been an incredible deterioration, and deterioration
   means losing," Crocker told VOA in a Skype interview. But he continued
   that, "as bad as things are today, they're better than they're going to
   be in a month."

   Crocker, who served in Iraq from 2007 to 2009, is not alone in his
   pessimism. Zalmay Khalilzad, his immediate predecessor, told VOA the
   trends in the region are spiraling downward.

   "You necessarily need to be, given the current trends, pessimistic in
   the short term because the underlying factors that could shape the
   circumstances are heading in a negative direction," Khalilzad said.

   President Barack Obama on Monday acknowledged a lot more needs to be
   done if the United States and its coalition partners want to defeat the
   Sunni-based militants.

   "One of the areas where we're going to have to improve is the speed at
   which we're training Iraqi forces," Obama said while in Germany for a
   meeting of the Group of Seven industrialized nations. "We don't yet
   have a complete strategy because it requires commitments on the part of
   the Iraqis."

   Despite almost a year of U.S.-led airstrikes, extremists in the Islamic
   State group have continued to seize territory in Iraq and Syria,
   killing thousands and displacing millions of people.

   Iraq's Shia-majority government has responded by using not only Iraqi
   security forces, but also Iranian-trained and supported militias.

   Both U.S. and Iraqi tactics have had mixed results. The United States
   claims progress in pushing back Islamic State, but the group has
   regrouped and attacked on multiple new fronts.

   Obama said Baghdad needs to once again reach out to Sunni tribes,
   echoing the 2005 Sunni Awakening in which the U.S. engaged and paid
   Sunni tribal fighters to defeat Islamic State's predecessor, Al-Qaida
   in Iraq.

   State Department spokesman Jeff Rathke said Monday that Washington
   already is in contact with Sunni leaders in the country.

   But Crocker said that without much stronger and consistent U.S.
   political and diplomatic engagement, Washington risks becoming
   irrelevant.

   "The U.S., I'm afraid, is seen by both our adversaries and our allies
   as increasingly disengaged and therefore irrelevant in the region -
   whether it's Syria or Iraq or Yemen," he said. "It's a pervasive view
   and it's very, very dangerous, because if we are seen as no longer a
   major player, well, others will play."

   Shia-majority Iran and Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia have become
   increasingly involved in the region, fueling sectarian tensions and
   militant violence. In Iraq, this sectarian tension is being ably
   exploited by Islamic State, said Crocker, who was recently in Jordan
   speaking to senior Iraqi political leaders.

   "For the Sunni inhabitants of those areas to take a stand again, they
   have to know what would come after ISIS is better than ISIS, and they
   don't know that now," said Crocker. "So ISIS will use this current,
   highly electric sectarian tension to rally Sunnis to their banner,
   posturing themselves as the only force that can protect Sunni
   interests."

   Khalilzad, who was Washington's ambassador in Iraq at the height of the
   sectarian conflict from 2005 to 2007, warned that without a regional
   political solution, existing regional rivalries could conflagrate into
   a wider, protracted sectarian war.

   "There may be sympathizers on the Sunni side from the states and
   institutions of some of the states, and Iran on the other side, and
   that could lead to a war that goes on for a very long time - in terms
   of years, if not decades," he said.

   For the region to normalize, Khalilzad said, its leaders and internal
   groups have to behave with mutual respect and acceptance. And the
   United States can have a powerful diplomatic and political role in
   bringing all the players to the table.

   Failing that, Khalilzad said, "as serious as the current problem is, it
   can get a lot worse. Do we have it within us, do they have it within
   them, to rise to the occasion? Or will we be witnesses to greater
   tragedies, greater conflicts, greater loss of life, greater suffering?"
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   worsen/2812981.html

References

   1. http://www.voanews.com/content/former-us-envoys-iraq-situation-will-worsen/2812981.html