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                Libya's Fate Difficult to Predict, Analysts Say

   by Mohamed Elshinnawi

   As Libya slides deeper into political and military chaos, uncertainty
   reigns and analysts say it's difficult to predict next moves.

   Some say Libya needs regional or broader foreign involvement; others
   say that would only aggravate the situation.

   In mid-August, Libya's ambassador to Egypt, Mohamed Jibril, called for
   international intervention, saying "Libya is unable to protect its
   institutions, its airports and oil fields."

   Last week, the country's ambassador to the United Nations, Ibrahim
   Dabbashi, asked the U.N. Security Council to disarm the warring
   factions. But the council decided against sending a U.N. peacekeeping
   force to Libya.

   Two military coalitions are competing for governmental control.  Their
   power struggles have almost paralyzed the country, leaving it with two
   de facto parliaments and two prime ministers.

   One coalition, Libya Dawn, represents Islamist groups including the
   hardline Ansar al-Shariah and militias from the coastal city of
   Misurata. The other coalition includes supporters of former dictator
   Moammar Gadhafi, ousted in 2011. It's led by retired General [1]Khalifa
   Haftar, an anti-Islamist.

   Retired General Sameh Seif Alyazal, director of Cairo's Algomhuria
   Center for Strategic Studies, said it's "very difficult, if not
   impossible now, to disarm more than 1,600 militias and armed groups in
   Libya with millions of pieces of weapon and a variety of heavy weapons
   and missiles."

   Seif Alyazal welcomed the Security Council's resolution to impose
   sanctions on militias and their political supporters who are fueling
   Libya's escalating war.

   Egypt's former ambassador to Libya, Hany Khallaf, said stabilizing
   Libya will demand more international cooperation.

   "Political and security arrangements are urgently required in Libya and
   it would take serious efforts from neighboring Arab countries, European
   and international efforts to be achieved," Khallaf said.

   Egypt is committed to helping "the legitimate Libyan government in
   Tobruk" restore stability and extend its authority, according to Seif
   Alyazal. He said the two countries' chiefs of staff met to discuss
   military cooperation, and Egypt offered to train Libyan police and army
   units, while  monitoring the borders to prevent insurgents or weapons
   from crossing.

   But Khallaf downplayed any significant role in Libyan politics for
   Egypt and its Gulf allies.

   "Libyan Islamists reject any role by Egypt, Saudi Arabia or the United
   Arab Emirates for a settlement in Libya, due to their anti-Islamist
   positions," he said.

   A recent report in the military journal [2]Jane's Intelligence Review
   said the escalated fighting could yield one of several different
   scenarios. They include Islamist forces that  "gradually expand their
   control over the country, leading to a high probability of Algerian or
   Egyptian intervention." Another possibility, Jane's said is that the
   government could consolidate its control of oil revenues and contain
   the Islamists in the east.

   But if Islamists "succeed in isolating the Tobruk government and secure
   control of energy revenues," Jane's said, it  could divide the more
   hardline factions and the Muslim Brotherhood, leading to "greater
   direct foreign military intervention from Algeria and Egypt to secure
   their respective borders."

   [3]Michael O' Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brooking Institution, a
   Washington think tank, predicted Libya eventually might be divided.

   "Realistically," he said, "it is possible that Libya would be
   partitioned in the future, or at least would be a confederation of some
   kind where you do have two ongoing parliaments."

   The most likely outcome is a stalemate - at least until the Tobruk
   government can "secure enough support and maybe direct Egyptian help to
   extend its authority across the country,"  said [4]Claudia Gazzini, a
   senior analyst for the [5]International Crisis Group, an organization
   committed to resolving deadly conflict.

   The head of the United Nations' support mission, Spanish diplomat
   Bernardino Leon, agrees foreign intervention isn't the answer to
   Libya's turmoil.

   "More conflict, more use of force will not help Libya get out of the
   current chaos, which would also impact countries in the region, in
   Europe and beyond," he said.

   Besides, Gazzini said, few countries have shown interest in forming an
   international coalition to restore stability.

   And she warned against such national or regional intervention. "Any
   viable solution must come from within Libya," she said. "Intervention
   by outsiders picking sides may just make things worse."
     __________________________________________________________________

   [6]http://www.voanews.com/content/libyas-fate-difficult-to-predict-anal
   ysts-say/2440798.html

References

   1. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27492354
   2. http://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/industry-economic-report.aspx?ID=1065992411
   3. http://www.brookings.edu/experts/ohanlonm
   4. http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/about/staff/field/mena/gazzini-claudia.aspx
   5. http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/crisiswatch/crisiswatch-database.aspx?CountryIDs=%7b28685262-BE79-473E-B18E-ED22761A0F17%7d
   6. http://www.voanews.com/content/libyas-fate-difficult-to-predict-analysts-say/2440798.html