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            South Korea See North's Threats at Unprecedented Levels

   by Steve Herman

   South Korea says it will never accept rival North Korea as a
   nuclear-weapons state. But there appears to be no international
   consensus on how to prevent that.
   Speaking Tuesday in Seoul, South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se
   characterized Pyongyang's recent belligerent threats as more diverse,
   frequent and intense than previously seen.
   He told a forum organized by the JoongAng newspaper and the
   Washington-based [1]Center for Strategic and International Studies
   (CSIS) North Korea is engaged in an unprecedented level of
   "psychological warfare."
   ''But he added that, despite this, President Park Geun-hye will
   continue the process of trust-building, which should neither be
   interpreted as appeasement nor intended to undermine the North Korean
   leadership.
   The foreign minister also cautions that there are limits to what the
   South will accept.
   "To safeguard peace we'll never allow a nuclear-armed North Korea and
   [will] make sure there is a corresponding price for North Korea's
   provocations," he said.
   Speaking earlier to the same group, former U.S. senator Richard Lugar
   described the North Korean threat as "global in nature" and not one
   that should "be defined merely by the range of its missiles."
   The retired chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee warns
   that the Obama administration's policy of "strategic patience" towards
   Pyongyang cannot continue to be applied indefinitely.
   "If it is, strategic patience becomes little more than a policy
   justification for avoiding the problem and the potential political
   consequences of making a mistake," he said. "The Obama administration
   should be sober about what can be accomplished in the short run, but it
   must be willing to consider a wider range of strategies, even if they
   carry some risk."
   The former senator suggests that responsible leaders take fresh
   measures to constrain the illicit activities of North Korean trading
   companies functioning as what he calls "conduits for nuclear
   proliferation and the dissemination of weapons technology."
   Michael Green, former senior director of Asia on the U.S. National
   Security Council, is pessimistic further sanctions will fundamentally
   change the mind of North Korea's current leader, Kim Jong Un, because
   the essence of the Pyongyang government, as he puts it, is a hybrid
   Stalinist theocracy and a criminal enterprise.
   ''"But with the emphasis on the theocracy being the main source of
   legitimacy for Kim Jong Un. For precisely that reason it, in my view,
   could collapse at any time. That makes it, in the long run, quite
   vulnerable," he said.
   Green's CSIS colleague, Victor Cha, also a former Asian policy director
   at the National Security Council, says preparations must be made for
   instability in North Korea. Cha contends Pyongyang's decision-makers
   have "boxed themselves into a corner from which they cannot escape."
   "The best scenario is that they continue to rattle the cages, but they
   don't do anything that might kill people or hurt people. But I'm not so
   certain that they'll stay in that corner forever and simply shout
   harmlessly and not do anything that's provocative," he said.
   Another former U.S. official told the same gathering that Pyongyang
   must be given a stark choice. Richard Armitage, who served as U.S.
   deputy secretary of state from 2001 until 2005, suggests telling North
   Korea it has to choose between its weapons of mass destruction or
   regime change.
   North Korea is believed to have a small arsenal of nuclear weapons and
   is developing ballistic missiles that might deliver such bombs a long
   distance.
   It recently vowed a nuclear attack on the United States - a threat
   which most analysts do not consider viable.
   The heightened bellicose rhetoric came amid the North's latest
   underground nuclear and long-range missile tests, actions banned under
   United Nations Security Council sanctions.
   Since Saturday, North Korea has fired six short-range projectiles into
   the sea off its east coast. Both Seoul and Washington say the latest
   firings do not appear to violate Pyongyang's international obligations.
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   [2]http://www.voanews.com/content/south-korea-see-north-threats-at-unpr
   ecedented-level/1665070.html

References

   1. http://csis.org/
   2. http://www.voanews.com/content/south-korea-see-north-threats-at-unprecedented-level/1665070.html