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  Analysts: Tensions in Turkish-Russian Relations Could Spread to Middle East

   by Dorian Jones

   Russia pressed ahead with an angry flow of rhetoric Friday, demanding
   that Turkish authorities reveal exactly what type of munitions they
   claim to have found aboard a Syrian airliner forced down over Turkey on
   Wednesday.  The incident comes as Russian-Turkish relations grow
   increasingly tense.
   The Kremlin strongly denies Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
   Erdogan's claim that Russian-made munitions were aboard a Syrian plane
   intercepted by Turkish jets.
   Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has
   University, warns that the dispute could escalate.
   "The Russians are obviously blistering and the Turkish government has
   the obligation to provide evidence that there was ammunition on the
   plane.  And if they can't, I am sure the Russians are going to be even
   more bitter. I am sure they are going to respond to this,"  Ozel said.
   Relations are already strained, with Moscow strongly supporting the
   Syrian government and Ankara backing the rebels.  But political
   scientist Cengiz Aktar of Bahcesehir University says powerful
   commercial interests will contain the latest dispute.
   "The two countries are heavily trading.  They have become important
   trading partners over the years. I don't think the disagreements
   regarding Syria will affect this trade partnership between the two
   countries," Aktar said.
   Last year, a Russian company won $1 billion contract to build a nuclear
   reactor in Turkey.
   Ankara, one of the biggest consumers of Russian energy, is lobbying to
   become an energy hub to distribute Russian energy to the region.
   Despite these commercial ventures, Erdogan has recently stepped up his
   rhetoric against Moscow over its support of Syrian President Bashar al
   Assad.

   Political scientist Aktar says Ankara underestimates the importance of
   Moscow in the region.
   "So far Ankara does not take Russia seriously but maybe it should.
   Russia is a full partner in the Eastern Mediterranean game and
   therefore Turkey needs to take Russia seriously," Aktar said.
   While Turkey deals with its frayed relationship with Moscow, it also
   faces rising tensions and home and with its other neighbors.
   More than 100,000 mostly Sunni Muslim Syrians have taken refuge in
   Turkey, fleeing persecution by Mr. Assad and his Alawite militias.
   Alawite Arabs in southern Turkey resent the refugees, mirroring Syria's
   Alawite-Sunni split.  Political analysts say this problem could spread
   in the region if Syria descends into sectarian warfare.
   Iran, Assad's biggest backer, has become embittered by Turkey's
   position on Syria.
   Semih Idiz is the diplomatic correspondent for the newspaper Milliyet.
   He says Ankara's interception of the Syrian plane and the Iraqi prime
   minister's recent visit to Moscow are signs of a growing rivalry
   between Sunni and Shia Muslims that threatens to revive rivalries in
   the region.
   "This situation will drive Ankara and Washington much closer. We've
   already seen Washington backing Turkey's decision to force landing this
   plane.  If you look at Russia, it's clearly reasserting itself in the
   region and the Shia element in the region is playing to Russia.  (Iraqi
   Prime Minister Nouri) Maliki was in Moscow, signed this major arms deal
   and said angry words at Turkey implying indirectly part of the reason
   why they are arming is because of Turkey.  So we have a new Cold War
   chess play developing and this is all coming out of Syria," Idiz said.
   Many regional analysts agree that Turkey has one thing in its favor: It
   is the only member of the NATO military alliance bordering Syria.  The
   missiles that make up Syria's air defense and offensive capacities are
   now under NATO surveillance, which may help prevent further escalation
   in the region.
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   [1]http://www.voanews.com/content/turkey-syria-russia/1525775.html

References

   1. http://www.voanews.com/content/turkey-syria-russia/1525775.html