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    January 23, 2012

Covert War on Iran Heats Up

   Gary Thomas
   EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton holds a news conference at the
   end of a European Union foreign ministers meeting in Brussels, January
   23, 2012.
   Photo: Reuters
   EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton holds a news conference at the
   end of a European Union foreign ministers meeting in Brussels, January
   23, 2012.

   Western pressure on Iran over its nuclear program continues to mount.
   The European Union agreed Monday to impose an embargo on Iranian oil
   and freeze assets of the central bank. Iranian officials restated their
   threat to block the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth
   of world oil supplies flow, in retaliation. Iran is also feeling
   pressure from a heightened campaign of covert action.

   Covert warfare

   A string of killings of people associated with Iran's nuclear program,
   a series of unexplained explosions at Iranian military facilities, and
   introduction of a deadly computer virus are signs, analysts say, that
   the campaign of covert warfare against Iran has been ratcheted up.
   Undated photo released by Iranian Fars News Agency, claims to show
   Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, who they say was killed in a bomb blast in
   Tehran, Iran, January 11, 2012.

AP

   Undated photo released by Iranian Fars News Agency, claims to show
   Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, who they say was killed in a bomb blast in
   Tehran, Iran, January 11, 2012.

   In the most recent case, Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi
   Roshan was killed Jan. 11 by a magnetic bomb attached to his car.
   Reva Bhalla, Middle East analyst with the private intelligence firm
   Stratfor, says policymakers turn to covert action as a course between
   diplomacy and warfare.
   "That's when policymakers turn to that grey area of covert operations
   as a means to deal with the situation when you lack better options,"
   said Bhalla. "And so the covert campaign is something that has been in
   the making for years now, and we're seeing an intensification of it
   precisely because all of the United States and its allies are
   increasingly concerned with Iran's rising and are looking for ways to
   limit it."
   Three other Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed over the past
   two years. No one has publicly claimed responsibility for the deaths.
   But Iran has blamed the intelligence agencies of the United States,
   Britain, and Israel. The United States categorically denied any
   involvement and Britain did not comment.
   Israeli officials denied knowing who was involved in the killing, but
   one Israeli spokesman said he was not, as he put it, shedding tears
   about it.
   Covert action is intended to influence events with a hidden hand.

   Desperate measures
   Usually carried out by a nation's intelligence agencies, operations can
   range from trying to swing a foreign election to sabotage and
   assassination. But such are risky because of the possibility of public
   exposure.
   Will Tobey, a senior fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for
   Science and International Affairs, says whoever is carrying out the
   killings is willing take the risk.
   "Well, I would say that anybody who was undertaking an assassination
   campaign against Iran had clearly reached a conclusion that matters
   were very serious and they were down to desperate measures," said
   Tobey. "That may point to increased danger in the near future."
   Michael Eisenstadt, director of the military and security studies
   program at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says Israel
   fits that description. He says Israel seeks to slow down Iran's nuclear
   progress, even if it can't stop it short of using military force.
   "I don't think that the Israelis look at covert action to halt Iran's
   nuclear program," he said. "It didn't work with the Iraqi program. And
   I think their experience with targeted killings has taught them that
   targeted killings don't halt terrorism as well. But I think they seek
   incremental advantage by engaging in covert operations to buy time for
   sanctions to work because sanctions by their very nature are
   slow-acting."
   Few analysts believe the covert action will deter Iran's leaders from
   their nuclear ambitions.

   Iran's games
   Iranian-American Amir Mirza Hekmati, sentenced to death by Iran's
   Revolutionary Court on charge of spying for the CIA, speaks during a
   recorded interview in an undisclosed location, in this undated still
   image taken from video by Reuters TV, Jan. 9, 2012.

Reuters

   Iranian-American Amir Mirza Hekmati, who has been sentenced to death by
   Iran's Revolutionary Court on the charge of spying for the CIA, speaks
   during a recorded interview in an undisclosed location, in this undated
   still image taken from video by Reuters TV, January 9, 2012.

   But Iran has been engaging in its own spy games.
   Late last year, the U.S. announced an Iranian plot had been uncovered
   to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington, but many of the
   details are murky.
   Iran has periodically arrested visitors and charged them with
   espionage, often to use them as bargaining chips.
   Earlier this month, Amir Hekmati, a former U.S. Marine was sentenced to
   death by an Iranian court on espionage charges. His family and the U.S.
   government have denied the spying allegations.