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    January 16, 2012

Taiwan President's Reelection Signals Easing Tensions with Beijing

   Ralph Jennings | Taipei
   Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou declares his victory in the
   presidential election in Taipei, Taiwan. Ma won a close re-election
   fight, leveraging his message of greater prosperity through expanded ti
   Photo: AP
   Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou declares his victory in the
   presidential election in Taipei, Taiwan. Ma won a close re-election
   fight, leveraging his message of greater prosperity through expanded
   ties with China to beat his populist-minded opponent, Tsai Ing-wen,
   January 14, 2012.

   Experts say Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's reelection will further
   cool long-standing military tensions in East Asia. China, which claims
   Taiwan as part of its territory, sees the vote last Saturday as a
   chance for another four years of negotiations in Beijing-Taipei
   relations.
   Four years ago, Taiwan's former president was threatening to formally
   declare the self-ruled island independent of China. Beijing said it
   would use its huge military to strike the island if that happened,
   putting U.S. officials on edge as they hoped to maintain relations with
   both sides.
   President Chen Shui-bian left office in 2008. His successor, Ma
   Ying-jeou, started talking to China about trade and economic issues to
   help the local economy and to cool military tensions. President Ma's
   reelection on Saturday with 51 percent of the vote came with a pledge
   to deepen partnerships with China, further reducing the possibility of
   conflict.
   U.S. officials congratulated Ma, and the Chinese government and state
   media lauded the election outcome.
   President Ma made his mission clear in his victory speech.
   Ma said the Taiwanese people want to set aside disputes with China and
   to "replace danger with business opportunities. The election," he
   added, "confirms that people approve of a correct and effective foreign
   policy that is respected by other countries and gives dignity to the
   Taiwanese."
   Taiwan has ruled itself since the Nationalist Party lost the Chinese
   civil war of the 1940s and fled to the island, 160 kilometers away.
   Beijing has never recognized Taiwan's sovereignty. When President Ma
   first took office, Beijing began talks that have produced 16 agreements
   and a dialogue framework that Beijing says it hopes will lead to talks
   on political unification.
   Analysts say that under these conditions, the United States will be
   able to focus more on areas such as the Middle East and the Korean
   Peninsula, without fearing a conflict over Taiwan. The United States is
   obligated to help protect the island. It also is Taiwan's top foreign
   arms supplier and has remained a staunch informal ally of Taipei's
   democratic government, despite more formal ties with China.
   But some analysts say Washington does not want Beijing and Taipei to
   pursue unification because it would extend Beijing's fast-growing
   economic power and possibly limit American economic and military
   influence in Asia.
   Bruce Jacobs is an Asian studies expert at Monash University in
   Australia. 'At least parts of the United States government will very
   much welcome Ma's victory, will appreciate the fact that Ma has made
   efforts to try to have good relations with China and that the Chinese
   have at least in some ways have responded to his appeals,' he said.
   Political analysts say many Taiwanese -- although not always happy with
   President Ma's overtures toward China or his domestic economic policies
   -- voted for Ma because he offered the same stability welcomed by China
   and the United States.
   The 61-year-old career government administrator beat Tsai Ing-wen of
   the Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP. Her party advocates Taiwan's
   formal independence from China and it backed former President Chen
   during his term. Tsai wants talks with China, but on conditions that
   she calls a "Taiwan consensus" -- a new dialogue framework approved by
   the parliament in Taipei.
   Ketty Chen, a Taiwan-born assistant political scientist at Collin
   College in the southern U.S. state of Texas, says President Ma's
   platform was more clear to voters. 'The DPP has the Taiwan consensus,
   which some of them didn't really understand. They could clearly
   understand President Ma Ying-jeou's position of the three no's, no
   independence, no unification and no use of force,' Chen stated.
   Fear of instability is a major concern among the more than 13 million
   Taiwanese voters. Lee Tien-yu, a 50-year-old nurse from Taipei, says
   Taiwan's survival depends on its ties with China.

   "Taiwan is small and domestic demand is small," Lee says. "Taiwanese
   work mostly in technology or service industries; China is next door
   with a huge market. And we can go over there and understand the
   language, so it's convenient, meaning we shouldn't compete with them,"
   she adds.
   President Ma's new term in office is through 2016. Before then, his
   government says it hopes to sign an investor protection guarantee
   agreement with China. And Beijing and Taipei say they will work to
   reduce thousands of tariffs on imports traded between the two sides.
   Experts say China will likely seek a formal peace agreement with Taiwan
   and the legalization of a dialogue framework that describes both sides
   as part of a single China.