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    November 22, 2011

Tsunami Debris Could Hit Mid-Pacific Island Soon

   Steve Herman | Tokyo
   Russian sail training ship, the STS Pallada, found an array of
   unmistakable tsunami debris on its homeward voyage from Honolulu to
   Vladivostok.
   Photo: Courtesy STS Pallada/Natalia Borodina
   Russian sail training ship, the STS Pallada, found an array of
   unmistakable tsunami debris on its homeward voyage from Honolulu to
   Vladivostok.

   A huge amount of debris from the tsunami that struck Northeast Japan
   more than eight months ago, appears to drifting eastward in the Pacific
   Ocean more quickly than anticipated.
   The large and potentially hazardous debris field from Japan's March 11
   tsunami is now forecast to begin coming ashore at Midway island in the
   Pacific as soon as December or January.
   The prediction comes from the [1]International Pacific Research Center
   at the University of Hawaii. Scientists revised their forecast after
   the tons of floating debris were spotted by a Russian vessel off Midway
   in late September.
   Among those aboard was Nikolai Maximenko a senior researcher from the
   center. He and his collaborator Jan Hafner, a scientific programmer at
   the research center, realized the debris is moving faster than
   expected.
   "Obviously the first pieces would be the light ones," Haffner said.
   "The pieces that are actually floating on the surface like empty
   bottles, some plastic bottles, styrofoam or maybe some wooden
   structures. And that would be, more or less a precursor, or a kind of
   warning for people on Midway that more heavy and bigger stuff is
   behind."
   Oceanographers say the [2]largest chunks of debris are potential
   hazards to navigation, marine life such as the endangered Hawaiian monk
   seal, reefs, beaches and facilities on the island, which is a UNESCO
   World Heritage Site.

   Fukushima-based boat found by Russian ship crew [Fukushima-based
   fishing boat found by Russian ship crew (Photo courtesy STS
   Pallada/Natalia Borodina)]
   The crew of the Russian ship spotted a Fukushima-based fishing boat,
   home appliances, lumber from destroyed houses and other heavy items.
   There could be toxic materials, as well, as entire coastal Japanese
   communities were swept out to sea by the tsunami.
   The researchers say it is a common misconception that the debris is in
   a compact area, which would make it easy to track via satellites in
   space or other monitoring equipment. Instead, oceanographers estimate
   the debris field is approximately 3,700 kilometers long and 1,800
   kilometers wide.
   Officials of agencies responsible for the Pacific Ocean environment say
   they are still grappling with how to formulate mitigation plans after
   learning some of the mess could begin accumulating on west-facing
   beaches of the Hawaiian islands as soon as March, 2012.
   Graphic of floating Tsunami debris

Courtesy STS Pallada/Natalia Borodina

   Graphic of floating Tsunami debris

   Hafner and his colleagues are making what a best guess as to when it
   will also hit the West Coast of the United States and for how long it
   will continue to wash ashore.
   "This influx of tsunami debris, it's hard to tell right now exactly the
   beginning and the end. But based on our kind of statistical predictions
   we expect to see the tsunami debris for less than one year from about
   September, 2013 on the West Coast," Hafner said.
   The tsunami was triggered by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake off the coast
   of northeastern Japan on March 11.
   Japanese officials say the tsunami was responsible for killing most of
   the 20,000 people who died in the disaster, which also triggered the
   meltdown of three reactors at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant.

References

   1. http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/
   2. http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/iprc/news/press_releases/2011/Pallada_tsunami_debris_photos/Figure_tsunami_debris_med.jpg