Originally published by the Voice of America (www.voanews.com).
Voice of America is funded by the US Federal Government and content it
exclusively produces is in the public domain.

Elections in Central Asia Continue to Pose Challenges
-----------------------------------------------------

(http://enews.voanews.com/t?ctl=D476E4:2AB91D3

Kazakhstan publishes a new law banning street rallies during and after
elections





Kyrgyz woman shouts slogans in front of parliament building in
BishkekElections in Central Asia continue to pose challenges and
foster change, but perhaps nowhere more so than in the neighboring
countries of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Analysts say the activity
stems from the recent popular unrest in Kyrgyzstan, which led to the
ouster of long-time leader Askar Akayev. Fearing the possibility of
similar unrest, Kazakhstan last week amended its election code, in a
move opposition critics say is designed to head off a peoples'
revolution.

Officials in Kazakhstan, which has never held an election judged free
or fair by the West, have published a new law banning street rallies
during and after elections.

The move comes just eight months before residents of Kazakhstan are
scheduled to go to the polls to elect a president. Incumbent President
Nursultan Nazarbayev has repeatedly said he will run for a new,
seven-year term.

Mr. Nazarbayev boasted recently that there is no social base for the
same widespread





 Nursultan Nazarbayevdiscontent seen in Kyrgyzstan. He says under his
leadership, the resource-rich nation of Kazakhstan has achieved rapid
market reforms and relative prosperity in comparison to other
post-Soviet nations.

But the new election law is drawing immediate ire from opposition
political parties. They say it aims to prevent a repeat scenario of
the popular electoral uprisings witnessed over the past two years in
Ukraine, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan.

Alexei Malashenko, of the Carnegie Moscow Center, agrees the timing of
the move is suspect. Mr. Malashenko says Kazakhstan's economic
situation is better than that of Kyrgyzstan, where popular unrest over
poverty is believed to have sparked the protests, in part. But he says
economic prosperity alone, will not buy peoples' silence.

"In any case, the opposition, the local business needs more and indeed
people their dreams [are] about the real democracy and maybe not only
about democracy, but about their possibility to be more prosperous in
their business and now they think that the regime of [President]
Nazarbayev is a kind of obstacle - that [under] Nazarbayev's
government let us say that they can not move forward. They can not
improve on economic situation and reforms and so on," said Alexei
Malashenko.

Mr. Malashenko says it is sentiments such as this that may be fueling
official concern about the upcoming elections and leading, in part, to
the recent change in the country's election law.

Just back from a visit to Kazakhstan, Mr. Malashenko says he found the
opposition emboldened by the rapid change of events in Krgyzstan. He
says there is a real sense of optimism and possible choice about the
next elections. But he says the opposition will have to maintain its
unity, if it is to pose a viable challenge to the current leadership.

The challenge in Kyrgyzstan which is due to hold repeat presidential
elections July 10 - is a bit more complex. Mr. Malashenko says it will
be a contest the likes of which have never been seen before.

"We have no experience in this post-Soviet space when the competition
between two leaders of the opposition takes place," he said. "Of
course, there is a difference between [acting President] Bakiyev and
[Mr. Felix] Kulov, but at the same time they have no program, they
have no plan. I think the next election that will take place on July
10 will be the competition between two personalities."

Last week, acting president Kurmanbek Bakiyev and opposition leader
Felix Kulov agreed to run their election campaigns freely and fairly.
They also pledged not to bring their supporters out into the streets
to protest, in the event of their loss.

Their agreement is seen as likely to ease fears that Krygyzstan could
be split in two, between Kulov supporters in the north and Bakiyev
backers in the south.

The Director of Moscow's Heritage Foundation, Yevgeni Volk, tells VOA
the recent political demonstrations, and questions and fears they
raise, highlight a whole new way of thinking in Central Asia.

"This unrest shows that even in the most traditional societies of the
Central Asian region, where people obey their superiors and where
revolutions were not an ordinary thing, where the potential for
subordination is very traditional, I would say even in those countries
people understand that something is to be changed that the ruling
elite are corrupt, that they lead the countries nowhere, that really
some kind of radical shift toward a kind of new system is badly
needed," concluded Mr. Volk.

Meanwhile, the United States is warning that it has continued concerns
about security in Central Asia.

In a public announcement last Friday, the State Department said it
continues to receive information that terrorist groups in Central Asia
may be planning attacks in the region. The announcement also urged
caution, given that hostage-takings and skirmishes have occurred near
the border areas of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan.

The United States and Europe have urged authorities in Central Asia
that free and fair elections would go a long way toward establishing
peace and stability in the region.