* * * * *
                                        
                                    Pendulum
                                        
> Think about that. How does Microsoft grow its size? Certainly not by
> listening to Robert Scoble. 
> 
> It does it by visiting Boeing, GM, EDS, the U.S. Government, and various
> other big Fortune 1000 companies and organizations. 
> 
> Now you know where the pressure for Palladium is coming. 
> 

Via Scripting News [1], Robert Scoble on Palladium [2] 

Thirty-five years ago you had large hulking machines cordened off in frigid,
windowless rooms maintained by high priests while you logged in from your
terminal in your office. One machine may have supported thousands of users so
therefore it was easy to maintain control over the system—for there was only
one system to maintain. 

The computer industry was firmly centralized in those days. 

What was your userid? Clickity-click [3] 

Twenty-seven years ago the pendulum peaked. (MITS Altair 8800 Computer) [4]
over time, people took computing into their own hands and were no longer
solely dependant upon the large hulking machines in some back room.

Slowly, over a twenty year period the computer industry shifted from a
centralized model to being decentralized, fueled by the likes of Microsoft
[5] and Apple. [6]

But that too, has passed. The pendulum has peaked and the computer industry
is slowly, inexorably, sliding back towards a centralized model once again.

Only this time it's behind hulking networks cordened off behind firewalls
manned by jubilent IT (Information Technology) staff giddy with new found
power.

Okay, so I exaggerate a bit. But there is a definite trend towards
centralization going on in the computer industry, and Microsoft is definitely
attempting to ride that wave, but unlike the turnaround [7] they did to
suddenly support the Internet, this will require more than just buying a web
browser and making their office suit spit out poorly formatted HTML
(HyperText Markup Language).

Like, oh … security?

In any case, I'm guessing that this trend will be increasing for another ten
years or so before the pendulum starts its swing back towards a new
decentralized mode, whatever that will be in 2025 …

[1] http://scriptingnews.userland.com/backissues/2002/07/05#When:10:47:49AM
[2] http://radio.weblogs.com/0001011/2002/07/04.html#a1420
[3] http://bofh.ntk.net/Bastard1.html
[4] http://www.computer-museum.org/collections/mits8800.html
[5] http://www.microsoft.com/
[6] http://www.apple.com/
[7] http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=%22Pearl+Harbor+Day+Speech%22+%22Bill+Gates%22+Microsoft

Email author at sean@conman.org