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LANGUAGES POPULARITY
Nicolas Herry
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2017/03/31
1 Languages popularity
======================
[An article posted on monday on Revolution Analytics] echoes the
latest report published by Redmonk, which shows which programming
languages are most popular. In this report, Python climbed to
position #3 and R registered a slight step back, to #14. So, what
does it tell us? Well, not much, I'm afraid.
[An article posted on monday on Revolution Analytics]
<http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2017/03/redmonk-jan-2017.html>
1.1 Useful information
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Of course, the first thing is that putting all languages in one
bag seems a bit silly, to say the least. How often do you
hesitate between C and Javascript? And why is the popularity
contest run every six months by Redmonk and every month by TIOBE?
How does that relate to anything in the real world?
But it's not just the methodology I have a problem with. I
believe the value of any piece of information is directly
proportional to the value of the decisions you can make based on
it. So, what decision can we make based on the knowledge that
[Redmonk] or [TIOBE] reports that some language (let's call it
"wiggly") that used to be #11 is now #15, for example?
- Shut down all projects written in wiggly
- Shut down all future plans to write anything in wiggly
- Convert all projects written in wiggly to a language in the top
10
- Organise trainings for all wiggly people willing to evolve to
something more fashionable and fire all those who won't
Well, I guess we can agree all the above seems a bit over the
top. But if you were to make such a decision, what would you do
if in the next report, dear wiggly was to climb back to #8? And
if you aren't to make any such decision, exactly what kind of
decision can you make based on the report?
Well, since this is not about the technical merits of the
languages themselves, maybe it's about the market. So, what does
it say about the market? Not much. We get a picture of how much
activity GitHub and StackOverflow see for these forty
languages. It doesn't say anything about the value of mastering
these languages on the market and it doesn't tell anything about
the value generated by these languages on the market either.
So, if it's not about the technologies themselves, not about the
value of the skills, the size of the market or what technology is
right, then what is it about? I guess the answer is that it
reflects trends and fashions, and I'm not sure I want to make any
decision based solely on that.
[Redmonk] <https://www.redmonk.com>
[TIOBE] <https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/>
1.2 Making decisions
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
So, if these kinds of reports aren't of any help in making
decision, then what is? What should we be considering? I'm not
stupid enough to believe I hold the definitive answer to that
question, but to me, there are a few things that you must take
into account, always.
1.2.1 The team
--------------
A project is first and foremost made up of the people involved in
it. Besides being all sweet and cute, this sentence should act as
a reminder that to get a project done, you need people with the
right skills. So, whenever I need to decide on some technology, I
first ask myself what these people know already. Especially when
a project is about exploring new grounds, it's better to do it
with a toolset you already master. Starting a new project, in a
new domain, in a new language and possibly with new people seems
a little risky to me. This is not to say that any novelty should
be ruled out from the start: introducing new languages and
technologies is healthy and useful, but I believe it should be
done while keeping in mind a clear career path for the people on
the team. In other words, this is long-term thinking, not
something you revise entirely every month or even twice a
year. As a side effect, not jumping on everything new and shiny
can help getting a product well written, easy to maintain (or
rather, not completely horrible to maintain, since you are less
likely to discover unexpected shortcomings with the technology)
and with a better time to market as a result.
1.2.2 Community and ecosystem
-----------------------------
If the reports from Redmonk and TIOBE give some idea about the
size of the respective communities behind the different
languages, they tell nothing about the culture their programmers
evolve in. Are they a good match to yours? Is there enough
documentation available on your favourite support, be it books,
forums, tutorials, mailing lists or IRC channels? Or are there
enough open source code you can study, if this is how your team
likes to learn about technology? Also, are there enough libraries
available so you won't be pioneering your field in a language new
to you? Another thing is that a large community is not always a
good thing: as a community grows, the average skill of potential
hires you can get from it gets lower and lower. This may or may
not be a problem, depending on the project or the sector, but it
is important to factor this in the equation.
1.2.3 Cost
----------
The two considerations above already cover this item to a great
extent, so no need to rehash everything I already said. The
question remains the same I ask myself with any project decision:
how much does introducing a new technology cost in short term and
in the long run? It's not much of a surprise, but no popularity
contest can provide a proper answer to that question.
So, in conclusion, I really can't see the point of these
reports. In the latest TIOBE Index for March 2017, the star is
Swift, which is entering the top 10. Who would have guessed
programming on the iPhone, with the technology stack actively
pushed by Apple is a popular thing do? I certainly didn't, but
I'm not losing anymore time; I already started rewriting all my
MATLAB code in wiggly.