Subj : The K7RA Solar Update
To   : QST
From : ARRL de WD1CKS
Date : Fri Aug 23 2024 10:09 pm

 08/09/2024 

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0211UT/09 AUGUST 2024 BY THE
AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE. 

"Recent CME activity is expected to increase geomagnetic activity from mid
09-Aug and on 10-Aug. Further CME activity on 08-Aug is now expected to also
increase geomagnetic activity on 11-Aug. 

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM
09-12 AUGUST 2024 GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 

09 Aug: G0, chance of G1 late in UT day

10 Aug: G1-G2

11 Aug: G1-G2

12 Aug: G1 periods early in UT day, then G0 

Solar activity jumped over the past reporting week (August 1-7) with average
daily sunspot number rising from 208.9 to 222.3 and solar flux from 207.3 to
255.3. 

Spaceweather.com reported that sunspot numbers have reached a 23-year high. On
August 8 the daily sunspot number climbed to 332. We must be at the peak of
cycle 25, but I hope we have more to go. 

Geomagnetic numbers were fundamentally unchanged, with average daily planetary
A index shifting from 14 to 15.7 and middle latitude index from 13.1 to 13.4. 

Seven new sunspot groups emerged. One on August 1, two on August 2, three on
August 4 and one on August 7. 

Predicted solar flux shows 300 on August 9-10, then 260, 250, 270 and 280 on
August 11-14, then 300, 205, 200 and 185 on August 15-18, 180 on August 19-22,
200 and 210 on August 23-24, 220 on August 25-26, 235 on August 27-28, 245 on
August 29- 30, and 240 on August 31 through September 7, then 230, 225 and 210
on September 8-10, 205 on September 11-12, then 200 and 185 on September 13-14,