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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial
ARTICLE VIEW:
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Top pollster Ann Selzer to retire after bombshell Iowa poll ended in
huge miss
By Liam Reilly, CNN
Updated:
7:05 AM EST, Sun November 17, 2024
Source: CNN
Top pollster J. Ann Selzer will retire from the Des Moines Register’s
famed Iowa Poll and the survey will “evolve” after it failed to
accurately capture former President Donald Trump’s strong support in
the 2024 election, resulting in a 16-point miss.
The announcement from Selzer comes after the Register in its delivered
a bombshell result showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald
Trump 47-44% among likely voters in the state, raising speculation
that Harris could mount a stunning upset. While other surveys had found
Trump comfortably ahead of Harris in the state, Selzer’s poll raised
Democrats’ hopes in the final days of the race and was widely by
other outlets.
Trump ultimately swept to victory over Harris in the state by a
13-point margin, winning the actual vote 56-43%. Selzer later her poll
was a “big miss” and suggested that her poll might have “actually
energize[d] and activate[d] Republican voters who thought they would
likely coast to victory.”
Kristin Roberts, chief content officer of Gannett Media, which owns the
Des Moines Register, told CNN that the Iowa Poll will “evolve as we
find new ways to accurately capture public sentiment and the pulse of
Iowans on state and national issues.”
“Our mission is to provide trusted news and content to our readers
and the public,” Roberts said in a statement to CNN. “We did not
deliver on that promise when we shared results of the last Des Moines
Register Iowa Poll, which did not accurately capture the outcome of the
presidential election.”
Since its founding in 1943, the Iowa Poll has offered insight into how
voters in the state intend to cast their ballots. Selzer began working
on the poll in 1987 as a staffer for the Register before founding her
own firm, Selzer & Co. of West Des Moines, which has conducted the poll
on a contract basis since 1997.
Prior to the 2024 survey, the Iowa Poll under her stewardship had been
considered by many to be the methodological gold standard. In the , the
poll has only missed the winner once (finding Democrat John Kerry up 5
points ahead of the 2004 election, when Republican George W. Bush
ultimately won the state by less than a point), and its largest
previous error on the margin came in 2008, when the final poll before
the election found Barack Obama ahead by 17 points, significantly
larger than his eventual 10-point win. As of , election forecaster Nate
Silver gave Selzer an A+ rating.
In an op-ed for the Register, Selzer said that her decision to part
ways with the poll predated the erroneous results.
“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my
2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to
other ventures and opportunities,” Selzer wrote.
Selzer said she would have preferred the announcement follow a “final
poll aligned with Election Day results,” noting in her column that
“it’s ironic that it’s just the opposite” but that she remains
“proud of the work I’ve done for the Register.”
“Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of
periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always
willing to learn from unexpected findings,” Selzer wrote. “My
integrity means a lot to me. To those who have questioned it, there are
likely no words to dissuade.”
In a separate column for the Register published on Sunday, executive
editor Carol Hunter wrote that Selzer had discussed a timetable for
“winding down her work on the poll” over the last few years and
confirmed that Selzer had given her notice over a year ago, saying that
she would “not renew when her 2024 contract ended with [the]
publication of the pre-election poll.”
The Register needs to “find new ways to accurately take the pulse of
Iowans on state and national issues,” Hunter wrote. “Our intention
is to reimagine how to best capture public sentiment and opinion among
Iowans to provide valuable and accurate insight into legislative issues
and politics.
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