Subj : The K7RA Solar Update
To   : QST
From : ARRL de WD1CKS
Date : Fri May 03 2024 04:26 pm

 05/03/2024 

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED 1817 UTC/02 MAY 2024 BY THE
AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A period of planetary G3 geomagnetic conditions has been observed
on 02-May, associated with two recent CME arrivals and a sustained
period of southward IMF conditions. Further periods of G3 are
possible over 02-03 May.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM
02-03 MAY 2024.

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST:
02 May: G2-G3 
03 May: G2, chance G3, declining to G1"

After the record sunspot numbers reported in last week's Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP017, the April 25 through May 1 reporting week
has more modest numbers. In fact, the average daily sunspot number
(124.6) is less than half the value (265.9) in the previous
bulletin.

Seven new sunspot groups appeared this week.

One new sunspot group emerged on April 25, another on April 27, two
more on April 29 and one each on April 30 and May 1.

Average daily solar flux shifted from 216 to 144.9.

Average daily planetary A index dropped from 13.9 to 9.6.

The solar flux estimate for the next month has values peaking at 205
on May 15-16 and again on June 11-12.

The values are 135 on May 3, 132 on May 4-5, then 134 and 136 on May
6-7, 138 on May 8-9, then 140, 155, 160, 175 and 180 on May 10-14,
205 on May 15-16, then 200, 195, 190, 185, 180, and 165 on May
17-22, 145 on May 23-24, then 140, 135, 130, and 125 on May 25-28,
then 120, 115 and 120 May 29-31, 125 on June 1-2, 130, 145, and 150
June 3-5, 155 on June 6-7, then 160, 175 and 180 on June 8-10, and
205 on June 11-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 20, 18 and 10 on May 3-6, 5 on
May 7-22, 15 on May 23, 12 on May 24-25, then 10, 8, 15, 18 and 10
on May 26-30, then 8 on May 31 through June 3, and 5 on June 4
through the middle of the month.